Ben Carlson

It did. That’s one of the reasons the recession everyone predicted didn’t happen

Has anyone done a think piece yet on how it’s Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang’s fault that mortgage rates are still so high from massive AI spend?

I interviewed Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule

We talked about:

-The origins & purpose behind the creation of the 4% rule

-Common misconceptions about the rule

-Does the 4% rule still apply today?

-The safe withdrawal rate in 2025 & much more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/does...

agreed. many young ppl wrongly assume you need a lottery ticket to become rich these days

Our relationship w/money in America is both depressing and inspiring

On the one hand it's sad that there will never be enough $$$ for most ppl

On the other hand it's ingrained in our psyche that things will get better and we'll all be rich someday

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/mill...

Trump is lucky AI basically bailed out the economy and stock market from the trade war

Carvana was down 98.99% from the 2021 highs

It's now up nearly 9000% from the lows

The stock market is wild

2 Fed governors dissented from having an opinion on the Sydney Sweeney American Eagle ad

That's never happened before

The CAPE ratio didn't help predict stock market returns

The inverted yield curve didn't help predict a recession

Dividend yields didn't help predict a crash

Always & never are two words you should drop from your vocabulary as an investor

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/noth...

Animal Spirits: This is the Dumb Money

Is the threat of an AI bubble keeping a floor under the stock market?

Why are stocks up?

How the housing market is helping the stock market

The biggest problem AI solves

The crypto dumb money and more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/anim...

Stock market ownership:

Top 10% - 87%
Bottom 90% - 13%

Housing market ownership:

Top 10% - 44%
Bottom 90% - 56%

A house is the largest financial asset for the majority of middle-class households

Housing nobility threatens this & it's not good:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/hous...

A reader asks:

"Companies have higher margins and are run more efficiently b/c of technology. Why doesn’t anyone think annual returns over the next 25-50 years will probably be more like 13-15%?"

Some thoughts on why trees don't grow to the sky:

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/why-...

The AD Netflix run was painful

Happy Gilmore 2 joins the list of classic comedies where I pretend the sequel never happened:

Anchorman 2

The Hangover 2

Zoolander 2

Dumb & Dumber 2

Super Troopers 2

The ones that landed the plane are Austin Powers, Xmas Vacation & 22 Jump Street

I never said anything about age. That’s on you

That joke was sitting there and I missed it

My brewery indicator says no recession for a very long time

There has to be a high correlation between ppl who talk on speakerphone in public places and drive slow in the left lane on the highway

There should be fines for this behavior

The Best Time to Invest - A Wealth of Common Sense Is it good or bad to start investing in a lost decade? Will we still have lost decades going forward?

Is it a good or bad thing if you started investing during a lost decade?

Will the retail buy the dip mentality and automated investing eliminate the possibility of lost decades going forward?

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-...

Right it’s like complaining about a crowded bar the night before Thanksgiving

I’ve heard at least 5 ppl this summer w/the same complaint:

“Italy is so beautiful but it’s way to crowded now”

These are bull market complaints

We might need a mild recession just to remind ppl that’s not a normal complaint to make

The Ovarian Lottery - A Wealth of Common Sense Some similarities between Steve Jobs, Warren Buffett and John Rockefeller.

Andrew Carnegie, Jay Gould, JP Morgan & John Rockefeller were all born in the 1830s

Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Paul Allen & Steve Wozniak were all born in the 1950s

Luck & timing - both good and bad - are part of life

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-...

he'll be the last independent Fed chair

In 2015 I was supposed to appear on CNBC

I was in the green room. Make-up on. Ready to go

Then a producer informed me I got bumped for the GoPro CEO who wanted to come on to defend the stock since it was crashing like 30% in a day

So as far as I'm concerned that's the worst new meme stock

Animal Spirits: What is Upper Middle Class?

Mag 7 is swallowing the stock market

Small caps are cheap

Sentiment is broken forever

Everyone thinks they're gonna be rich

Will Bitcoin crash in the next recession?

The best movie year ever (1999) & more

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/anim...

Everyone thinks 0% interest rates were the cause of a lot of speculative behavior during the pandemic

Maybe they were

But we're seeing meme stocks again w/interest rates at 4-5%

The dot-com bubble happened w/a 6% 10 year Treasury yield

Rates don't matter as much as you think

My working theory is he’s gonna try to make the Fed buy MBS again. Or at least float the idea. In for a dime in for a dollar

The 1980s/1990s bull market is the greatest US run of all-time

We're not quite there but the 2010s and 2020s are in the ballpark

No one predicted this coming out of the Great Financial Crisis

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-...

What Stops This Train? - A Wealth of Common Sense How does this cycle come to an end?

What causes consumers to rein in their spending?

What causes the U.S. government to slow its borrowing?

What causes the U.S. to experience its first true recession in more than 15 years?

What stops this train?

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/what...

I think it's possible most young ppl are going to be miserable their entire lives b/c of trends like this

Partying is for young ppl