Julius E.R.

Update: The day after the massive tariff announcement — when Dow dropped nearly 4% — the White House put out budget numbers that projected annual 3% economic growth for the next decade.

That is … unlikely.

It’s also the WH ignoring the consequences of actions playing out publicly in really time.

In short, European elites aim to uphold three objectives: credible and effective deterrence against Russia, nuclear nonproliferation, and strategic stability (understood as low incentives for nuclear first use).

But without the U.S. nuclear arsenal, choosing any two makes the third impossible.

2/x

VIDEO. Quand Marine Le Pen demandait « l’inéligibilité à vie » pour les élus condamnés pour « détournement de fonds publics » - Public Sénat Alors que Marine Le Pen vient d’être condamnée pour détournement de fonds publics à quatre ans de prison et à cinq ans d’inéligibilité, l’empêchant de se présenter en 2027, la même Marine Le Pen défen...

Well... There's always a quote..

VIDEO. When Marine Le Pen called for "lifelong ineligibility" for elected officials convicted of "misappropriation of public funds"

www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/p...

Note that this decision in itself is not Trump’s fault as such, although his reign of error surely doesn’t help.

The decision was expected, as the threat against Finland is these days less “a short war against heavily mechanized enemy” and more “a long conflict against human waves.”

Secret Pentagon memo on China, homeland has Heritage fingerprints An secret memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth focuses on deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan and shoring up homeland defense. The guidance mimics language of a report from the conservative think ...

An internal memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon will consider only a potential conflict with China when planning for a major power war, leaving European allies to cope with the threat from Russia.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Influencer Paid by Russia Added to White House Press Pool Tim Pool was one of several conservative social media stars who says he was duped into taking Russian money during the election.

UPDATE: “Tim Pool, A right-wing influencer who was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to spread Russian propaganda during the 2024 presidential election has been added to the White House press pool.”

Weird how stuff like this keeps happening.🤷🏼‍♂️

Finland lost the wars, but remained independent. Afterwards, the construction of the welfare state was implicitly and sometimes very explicitly part of the “total defence” doctrine.

The military regularly reminded the politicians that the will to defend the country is the sine qua non of defence.

DNB baas Knot: ’Defensie even belangrijker dan boekhouding’ De president van De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Klaas Knot vindt het gebruik van eurobonds en het versoepelen van de begrotingsregels om de Europese defensie te versterken goed te verdedigen,

Dutch central bank president Klaas Knot: “Defense is more important for now than book keeping”

(If even the Dutch say this…)

www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/1...

“Our task is to see that potential aggressors, from whatever quarter, understand plainly that the capacity and the resolve of the West would deny them victory in war and that the price they would pay would be intolerable”. 3/3

Majority of Europeans see Trump as an enemy, survey shows 4 in 10 Europeans also say the US president “acts like a dictator.”

More than half of Europeans consider U.S. President Donald Trump an “enemy of Europe,” according to a survey conducted in the EU’s eight largest countries and Denmark.

US ‘deletes evidence’ of Russia’s kidnap of thousands of Ukrainian children Researchers at Yale University had been compiling database of alleged Russian war crimes, including abduction of up to 35,000 children

You might as well admit it America, you now belong to Russia.

Trump admin considers giving up NATO command that has been American since Eisenhower The move is being discussed as part of a possible restructuring of combatant commands that would help the Defense Department cut costs.

Trump administration considers giving up NATO SACEUR command as part of a drive to lower costs. “It would be a mistake of epic proportions, and once we give it up, they [Europeans] are not going to give it back” - Adm James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander NATO #econsky

More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul The German parliament will likely pass a debt break exemption for defence spending on Tuesday. Freeing up the money is only the first step towards a more effective military

Germany’s federal parliament will likely pass a constitutional amendment tomorrow to allow the next government to significantly increase defence spending. What to prioritise?

More than money: How German defence can make the most of the debt break overhaul ecfr.eu/article/more...

No offence to Admiral Giuseppe Dragone, but he has no flipping clue what Donald Trump will or will not do & he should be careful of making statements that he cannot back up.

YES

Heading: Tariffs could push up costs for car industry. The graphic shows a map, with 5 steps in the manufacture of a piston. 1. Powdered aluminium sent from Tennessee 2. Turned into rods in Pennsylvania 3. Shipped to Canada, Canadian tariff paid at border, rods shaped and polished in Canada 4. Rods sent to Mexico for assembly into pistons. Direct transfers from Canada to Mexico do not incur tariffs. 5. Shipped to Michigan. US tariff paid at border. Pistons become part of engine in Michigan.

This BBC graphic is a good way to show why reciprocal 25% tariffs will cause prices on some goods to go up far more than 25%.

A piston used in a car engine made in Michigan will cross the U.S. border twice, and will be taxed 25% each time.

Some products cross the U.S. border even more than that.

words I never imagined writing in my lifetime.....

General Sir Richard Shirreff, the former Nato deputy supreme allied commander in Europe, has told Times Radio:

"I think we have to assume, after the events of the last 10 days, that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally"

Trump Suspends Military Aid to Ukraine After Oval Office Blowup The directive, which takes effect immediately, affects more than $1 billion in arms and ammunition in the pipelines and on order.

It should be clear by now that Trump is blackmailing Zelensky to remove him from office. He is pursuing his own policy of regime change. Whether it just coincides, is coordinated or even directed by, Russia, I don’t know. But if he gets his way,

www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/u...

Most countries around the world will not want to be in Ukraine’s shoes; some may want to be instead in Russia's & the US's position.

Many will try to get nuclear, chemical, or/and biological weapons.

If spreading WMDs across the world is in the US national interest:

Go ahead!

And to make things worse, after launching various grift cryptocurrency tokens, the US national strategy is now being sourced from TikTok and Facebook

Unlike Trump, they've worked out how much Putin's word is worth - less than nothing.

Zelensky on Lindsey Graham's remarks about the need for his resignation: "Lindsey is a very good guy... I can grant him Ukrainian citizenship, and then I will listen to him as a citizen of Ukraine."

This needs daily emphasis. Democracy is what makes leaders strong. Because it gives them a mandate, checks and balances pushing them away from darker impulses, subordinates more likely to be unafraid to tell them what they need to know, and a safe second career/ retirement.

The Chinese government hides youth unemployment numbers and other statistics deemed unflattering.

This would be next level...

Good question - and why do we still allow them to come? 🤷‍♀️

New York Times, Jan. 26, 1935.

good morning from the land of sToReOfValue:

The U.S. has two tsunami warning centers, both operated by NOAA. Employees were terminated from these centers today. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center covers Hawaiʻi, and now it is less safe to be near the beach.

www.tsunami.gov

Pretty stark drops in the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Perhaps best summarized by this succinct comment:
"It is very hard to plan. Interest rates? Tariffs? Wow."

www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...