@georgeprbenson.bsky.social
Building better economies for people and planet @ ZEIC.ca Annoyingly into industrial policy, democratizing finance and economies, and better rule-making. I have a newsletter: georgeprbenson.com
This post really put that starkly for me.
Those numbers about the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in this are wild:
Probably can get less than 1mmbpd out the door; and whole reserve is only about to offset 40 days worth of shutdown from Hormuz.
With maximal, ghoulish pain, this war will advance decarbonization around the world.
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I'm not saying this *will* happen, but I am saying that there are a lot of political dynamics at play that *could* make it happen.
Having a clear plan to (a) transition sunsetting industries successfully and (b) to fully resource our adaptation needs therefore becomes existentially important.
You just have to imagine either a smaller province totally underwater, or a bigger one (without naming any names) that has largely decarbonized but facing ever-increasing adaptation bills.
In either case, they could call O&G's bluff and try to recoup some costs.
In Canada, as I close with, this represents something does something of a prisoner's dilemma. If a non-O&G province decides that the bills are getting too high and they want a helping hand, they could pursue a NY-style superfund approach.
Would a national unity crisis follow? Very possibly.
New York's work to develop a "superfund" -- for which it is being heavily sued -- will be instructive. If they can get it through and created a structured process, then the hunt will be on for these companies to pay out monies to support adaptation.
www.purduegloballawschool.edu/blog/news/ny...
I4PC argues that fossil fuel companies remain (for now) wildly profitable and, in the example of payouts, we have a ready-made example from the cigarette industry's payouts (BC got over $2B last year alone) and some of the ongoing litigation around addictive drugs.
What I appreciate about the second part is that I4PC has made a crucial linkage not only to damages, but also to adaptation. Every government is going to need to spend billions to prepare for a warming world -- and right now the money isn't there.
Adaptation needs more money, lots and lots more.
The first part may sound wild, but they argue that there is now a clear precedent for using attribution science to assign responsibility, and therefore damages.
They propose a two-fold answer:
1. Use attribution science (which has greatly matured) to assign a level of responsibility to major polluters.
2. Make them pay.
I4PC puts it with the straightforward darkness that the situation deserves:
"As climate damages mount, insurance claims increase and these costs are being passed along to Canadian homeowners in the form of increased premiums and less coverage. This is a cycle with no clear end."
The insurance industry itself is raising the alarm, with @insurancebureau.bsky.social noting that:
"Personal property insurance market’s combined loss ratio was 101% for both 2024 and 2023, meaning insurers paid out $1.01 in claims and operating costs for every $1 they earned in premiums."
If you extrapolate out the current trends of damages with our current warming trajectory, Canadians look like they're getting $100 billion a year in damages (75% of which would be uninsured) by 2050.
Investors for Paris Compliance (I4PC) did a report looking at how badly this is impacting Canada and... it's bad.
www.investorsforparis.com/climate-dama...
Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters - and therefore damages that they cause.
(Yes, even when you account for increased wealth and people living in more dangers places. I see you, Pielke Jr.)
www.swissre.com/institute/re...
I write a newsletter! And I wrote about why insurance is so terrifying right now. A little 🧵
Two weeks after news broke that ABC Coun. Lenny Zhou used Chinese-language social media to accuse unnamed fellow councillors of dispensing illegal drugs, COPE Coun. Sean Orr has filed a civil suit against the accusation’s source — Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim. #vanpoli
What could another name for such a payment be…?
Godwin's law, but here I go:
I cannot help but see the parallels to Hitler in the 1930s. It was audacity that enabled him to make so many early gains. People just couldn't believe that they'd do what they did without thought for the losses it would eventually incur.
The delivery for "here.... is a chart" is some of your best work to date, Justin.
🙌🙌🙌🙌
🔴 BREAKING: Secret documents obtained by Ukraine reveal Russian military losses have now topped 1.3 million soldiers.
I like this - wood paneling top half, solar module bottom half!
Danielle Smith sure has a unique definition of physical conservatism.
Hell fucking yeah.
Never saw this coming, but really excited that @fabulavancouver.bsky.social would throw her hat in the ring!
I am really trying to do this, too.
I had never thought of it in those terms, but “musical overconsumption” is such a powerful phrase.