Norman J. Steinert

Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment Abstract. As permafrost thaws, the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) can amplify the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) and the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) by introduc...

New paper out today with @benmsanderson.bsky.social, where we quantify the contriution of the permafrost carbon feedback to TCRE and ZEC under uncertainty.

Check it out here: doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025
global-tipping-points.org

Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for
Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52...

Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

Very cool that @carbonbrief.org @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org have covered our study, take a read here!

Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot A strong intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shift occurs in 1–2 of 8 CMIP6 models simulating overshoot, not depicting the most likely but a plausible high-impact outcome The ITCZ shift drives ...

New paper out today!
Irreversible hydrological changes on land after temperature overshoot affect land water availability for over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes.

doi.org/10.1029/2024...

New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳

Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9

New paper! Incorporating plant and soil data reveals hidden agricultural drought stress areas and shows that, despite increasing extremes, future agricultural drought stress may decrease in some regions thanks to increasing soil moisture.

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) Abstract. Climate policies evolve quickly, and new scenarios designed around these policies are used to illustrate how they impact global mean temperatures using simple climate models (or climate emul...

Our new open access paper on the PRIME Earth System emulator for estimating regional impacts is out now: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/..., @njsteinert.bsky.social, @chrisd-jones .bsky.social, @cjsmith.be, @gergmunday.bsky.social, @dougmcneall.bsky.social

Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions Permafrost ecosystem carbon loss may continue under net-zero and negative emissions, hindering climate mitigation efforts.

New paper on “Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions” due to irreversibility of inundated areas, which could delay or hinder climate change mitigation efforts.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

It's January, which means the EGU abstract Submission deadline is fast approaching: Jan 15th!

So if you're in the net-zero world please take a look at: Towards net zero and beyond: remaining carbon budgets, negative emissions, mitigation pathways and implications for policy

Main takeaway from this (excellent) meeting: ZEC is not a singular property of the climate system. It's a catch-all for everything which isn't described by TCRE - and the more we study it, the more exotic and confusing it seems to be.

AI-generated flyer for EGU25 conference session on "statistical and physical emulators for climate impacts".

#EGU25 session announcement!

Physical and statistical emulators for climate impacts

with @rebeccamayvarney.bsky.social, @yannquilcaille.bsky.social, Greg Munday & Norman Steinert

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio...

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7 Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized ...

New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD.

Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated.

ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences.

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...