David A. McKay

No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point - Nature Climate Change It has been postulated that there is a threshold temperature above which permafrost will reach a global tipping point, causing accelerated thaw and global collapse. Here it is argued that permafrost-t...

This paper also relevant, and comes to largely same perspective: www.nature.com/articles/s41.... (Some Qs remain though -at least for me - on how much we can extrapolate from current land models, which can partly resolve gradual but not abrupt thaw.)

1.2.2.4 Permafrost

Mostly a Q of scale - more agrrement on localised tipping-style dynamics for abrupt thaw events, but that doesn't aggregate to a global-scale TP in permafrost-carbon feedback, and larger-scale collapse in Yedoma remains largely hypothetical: report-2023.global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-e...

(specific to Johan's bit, rather than Jean-Pascal's)

There's also the issue that the assessment he normally bases this off has tipping risks escalating from *below 1C*, & while several TPs turn 'likely' from 1.5C that doesn't translate to a jump in aggregate likelihood at 1.5C (it's more a line in sand on accelerating risks, like everything else)

Scottish households urged to cut water use as climate crisis limits supplies Scottish Water boss says average Scot uses 40% more water than people in Yorkshire partly due to mistaken belief water is abundant in Scotland

The presenter on this panel seemed surprised, despite record wildfires & dryness, when I insisted that, yes, drought could be coming for Scotland too - seems I'm not the only one struggling to get that across: www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Seen a #TippingPoints story recently about the SMOC (the AMOC's southern sibling) abruptly reversing? Thankfully, it's not true (seems a press release got overenthusiastic). Want to know what the paper behind it really said? Read this from the lead author instead: theconversation.com/completely-u...

Mm, some of the links to global impacts are pretty loose. The description of regional dynamics and the research itself seems pretty sound though - certainly better than some of the stories and quotes going around on it!

Seen a #TippingPoints story recently about the SMOC (the AMOC's southern sibling) abruptly reversing? Thankfully, it's not true (seems a press release got overenthusiastic). Want to know what the paper behind it really said? Read this from the lead author instead: theconversation.com/completely-u...

Screenshot of part of a post from James Dyke on his Eccentric Orbits substack: "Some of my students have been arrested and imprisoned because of peaceful non-violent direct action. This is the result of the criminalisation of protest in the UK which is utterly shameful. I appreciate that we all have different roles to play in trying to get politicians to act, and that not everyone can put their liberty on the line. But I am profoundly uncomfortable extolling young people to lead a revolution when there is very little wider support for their actions and they face imprisonment for years. If that sounds patronising, then guilty as charged! I feel deeply responsible for my students, and I would rather err on the side of being a overbearing square than urging people to act in ways that are harmful to them."

Amen to this - relatedly, can't get myself behind a theory of change extolling filling prisons up with desperate young people to hit some magic threshold

Is Britain’s spring suffering from a case of weather whiplash? This text is based on my comments on a BBC Radio Scotland panel on May 27th 2025, in which we talked about the phenomenon of “weather…

I was on BBC Radio Scotland last week talking about whether the recent very sunny & dry followed by wet weather in Scotland & rUK has been a case of "weather whiplash" - you can listen in here: www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/..., & read my write-up: medium.com/p/82e39321740c
#ClimateChange #SciComm

Stop hoarding ancient bones, plead archaeologists - Nature Scientists call for wider access to rare samples rich in DNA.

I've heard sample hoarding is a particular issue in early hominid archaeology, e.g. www.nature.com/articles/nat...

‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C - Carbon Brief Even passing 1.5C of global warming temporarily would trigger a “significant” risk of Amazon forest “dieback”, says a new study.

NEW – ‘Significant’ risk of Amazon forest dieback if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org w/ comment from @gergmunday.bsky.social Nico Wunderling @davidamckay.bsky.social David Lapola @chrisd-jones.bsky.social

Introducing the special inaugural double issue of Dialogues on Climate Change @dialoguescc.bsky.social, with 27 authors addressing the state of research in 20 articles on hotly debated topics!

Volume 1 Issue 1: journals.sagepub.com/toc/dcca/1/1

Volume 2 Issue 1: journals.sagepub.com/toc/dcca/2/1

Thanks, Nick!

Going to @egu.eu #EGU25 today? I'll be speaking remotely about Holocene climate stability (and whether or not it means we're in a self-stabilising climate attractor, or just got lucky) & the #HothouseEarth hypothesis at 1620 CEST in Room F1 / online: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-...

I had a dream recently in which I happened across the UK's strategic wheat reserve, which was stored in a big muddy hole in a field somewhere off the M25 and covered over in plywood & tarp. Unfortunately, the reality seems rather less well prepared than even this...

Did SSP3 write this?

Assistant Professor in Physical Geography Ref: 40324 (Fixed Term, Maternity Cover) - Job page - University of Sussex Job Search

Come work with us at Uni. Sussex Geography!

We're looking for a 1yr maternity cover Assist. Prof., teaching on the Earth system, climate change, & biogeography, starting in August.

Details here: jobs.sussex.ac.uk/job/003194b4...

#AcademicJobs #AcademicSky #Geography #UKHE #ClimateScience

Two decades of climate tipping points research: Progress and outlook

New article online first in @dialoguescc.bsky.social by @davidamckay.bsky.social journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

On the Point of Tipping (or, why tipping points are useful, but should not be reified) It’s perhaps surprising that it’s taken as many as three whole posts here for me to get on to the topic of tipping points, given my recent academic and outreach work. I’ve been thinking about writi…

For more thoughts on tipping points and their utility as a concept despite the issues around them, I wrote this longread blogpost recently to dig in deeper: gaiaexmachina.wordpress.com/2025/01/28/o...

I recently spoke with @jessimckenzi.bsky.social at the @thebulletin.org for their new special issue on climate #TippingPoints - lots of great pieces & different views, and you can check out the full interview with me here (including conjuring a new meta-metaphor!): thebulletin.org/2025/03/meta...

I'm co-convening a research session at this year's Global Tipping Points Conference in Exeter, June 30th-July 3rd - abstracts presenting your latest research on Earth System Tipping Points and Risks welcome by March 19th!

#EarthSystemScience #ClimateScience #TippingPoints

Slowdown of critical ocean current may preserve the Amazon rainforest The weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could be bolstering rainfall over the Amazon, reducing the risk it will reach a tipping point

The weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation could be bolstering rainfall over the Amazon, reducing the risk it will reach a tipping point

Screenshot of World Adaptation Forum conference schedule showing a 3 hour "JEMboree – Deep Adaptation 5th Anniversary Celebration"

And a "JEMboree" to boot

Ha yeah, I feel the frustration in that thread! And on how it's used fatalistically, I found it telling that when searching for examples how many come from either denialist or doomer sources: www.google.com/search?q=co2...

I think there's a similar logic to those CO2 level graphs with COPs labelled on that go round sometimes to show there's been "no progress" - clearly there's been not enough progress, but do we really think in the counter-factual scenario with no climate diplomacy that CO2 wouldn't be *even higher*?

On the Point of Tipping (or, why tipping points are useful, but should not be reified) It’s perhaps surprising that it’s taken as many as three whole posts here for me to get on to the topic of tipping points, given my recent academic and outreach work. I’ve been thinking about writi…

New blogpost: *On the Point of Tipping*

[some thoughts-in-progress (that ended up quite long...) on the uses & limitations of climate tipping points as a scientific metaphor & model]

gaiaexmachina.wordpress.com/2025/01/28/o...

#TippingPoints #ClimateChange #EarthSystemScience #PhilosophyOfScience

The Millionth American-The Millionth Yank-Paul Shimer Jr 25th October 1944- Paul Shimer Jr- The Millionth American-The Millionth Yank- US Army 15 Infantry 3rd Division Seventh Army- Southampton’s Mayor Rex Stranger- Twentieth Century Flyer-McConnellsburg-Ch...

(pic from jakesimpkin.org.uk/the-milliont...)

Private Paul Shimer Jr of the US Army, with a sign around his neck saying "The Millionth Yank", at Southampton Docks on the 25th October 1944 with Mayor of Southampton, Rex Stranger

After D Day, but am also reminded of the "Millionth Yank" ceremony that Southampton put on, with over 2 million US soldiers passing through Southampton Docks in the end. But sure, barely any made it to Normandy!

The abstract submission deadline for #EGU25 is tomorrow 12GMT/13CET - if you're working on nonlinear human-Earth system interactions, then consider submitting your latest research to our session!

#EGU #EarthSystemScience #TippingPoints #Anthropocene