@joostvanspanje.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science, RH University of London elections | new parties | cordons sanitaires | hate speech | militant democracy | political communication Bitcoin and politics, media & public opinion ERC Consolidator Grant | NWO Veni & Vidi
And so it begins...
"Kiezers wijken relatief vaak uit naar JA21 (11% van de kiezers die in β23 PVV stemden zou nu JA21 stemmen)
Kiezers die nu voor JA21 gaan zien dit als een evenwichtigere partij met een betere kans op 't leveren van bijdrage aan een kabinet"
www.ipsos-publiek.nl/actueel/ipso...
Do you want to bet?
30.07.2025 12:16 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0Might well go much higher.
30.07.2025 11:53 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0JA21 predictably does well.
On 27 June I wrote:
"This election, JA21 holds the cards.
Given relatively centrist leadership of both #CDA and #NSC, the low salience of #BBB 's core policy issue, the errors by the #VVD leader, and the isolated position of the #PVV, the right is wide open to #JA21".
Ah, OK, sorry, will change.
30.07.2025 11:43 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, Elsbeth Reitzema:
"shocked that incorrect information was spread [by BBB leader Caroline van der Plas] in Parliament
(..)
far right catholic Civitas has falsely accused expertise centre Rutgers, misrepresented teaching material, and taken it out of context."
Today in UK newspaper @the-independent.com:
"Rachel Reeves is eyeing up a Β£5bn preBudget windfall as the government considers selling off seized cryptocurrency
(..)
Home Office is reportedly working with police forces to offload at least Β£5bn worth of bitcoin"
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
For sale online!
Also available in print 3 weeks from today:
Our @oxfordunipress.bsky.social book on hate speech trials of politicians (including #LePen & #Wilders).
We map prosecutions in 9 countries since 1965, and study their impact on hate crime, democratic & legal system support, and voting.
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, a column by @heleenmees.bsky.social:
"Western companies themselves sold the mines containing critical raw materials 20y ago
(..)
@kyleichan.bsky.social says the West must take a long-term view of capital financing, focusing on the strategic value of sectors"
Today, Dutch newssite @nu.nl:
Dutch authorities "no longer allowed to return single male asylum seekers who have already applied for asylum in Belgium.
For some time now, Belgium has had so few reception places that the asylum seekers are first placed on a waiting list."
www.nu.nl/asielcrisis/...
Data suggests that 80-85% of the Dutch accept evolution theory whereas that figure is slightly higher in Spain (~87%) and lower in Italy (~75%).
Belief in creationism seems a bit higher among the Dutch (~15%) than in Spain (~6%) or Italy (~7%), as many Italians doubt both.
According to my AI tool!
Today in Dutch newspaper @volkskrant.nl, on labour migration:
"It's not uncommon for people to alternate sleeping on a mattress:
one person sleeps on it and goes to work, the other comes home and sleeps on that same mattress.
(..)
inspectors found 20 mattresses in housing intended for 4 people".
62% of Republicans say Trump is focusing the right amount on deporting undocumented immigrants who are in the country illegally. 11% of Republicans say Trump is focusing too much on this. 27% of Republicans say he isn't focusing enough on this.
www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...
π’APPLY NOW!: DPIR seeks a Departmental Lecturer in Comparative European Politics to provide teaching and supervision at the undergraduate and graduate level and contribute to the Departmental examining and graduate admissions processes.ποΈ CLOSES: 12pm, 5 Aug: ow.ly/brXi50WpZav
15.07.2025 15:38 β π 12 π 17 π¬ 0 π 3However, the term "registration" means different things in different countries.
In some countries, such as the Netherlands, many more parties are registered than competing in general elections.
In that case, the list of registered parties would still be incomplete - and, also, not very meaningful.
We tried to include all parties that competed country-wide in 1st-order elections for the 1st time.
Novel elements:
no threshold (so even those new parties that received very few votes)
and
tracking them for 3 elections in a row.
Add them to parties that were already competing, that should be all.
This is an interesting case:
French prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into X over allegations that X manipulated its algorithms for the purposes of βforeign interference".
www.politico.eu/article/fran...
Aanrader!
Het boek "Onder ons: Achter de schermen bij de genootschappen van de Nederlandse elite" door @birteschohaus.bsky.social & Bas van Beek van het onvolprezen @ftm.nl.
Moeilijk om ledenlijsten, anekdotes en verhalen los te krijgen vanwege de beslotenheid van die genootschappen.
Toch gelukt.
@joostvanspanje.bsky.social
06.07.2025 21:25 β π 10 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Today in Dutch newspaper @parool.nl, experts criticize housing plan #VVD:
"Mix of bad ingredients of 40 years of housing policy put together"
"List of measures that really do not work to increase accessibility of the housing market"
"The likely effect is that housing becomes even more expensive".
The book 'Number Go Up' (2023) is amusing but misses the forest for the trees.
While revealing serious injustices, it is one-sided, @zekefaux.bsky.social lumping together all "crypto" and dismissing it all as "dumb."
I happily donate money to @ftm.eu but expect a higher bar for books it publishes.
In the US, #ElonMusk has announced the start of a new party.
Interested in new party success and failure, worldwide?
Check the dataset compiled by Stuart Bramwell and colleagues & myself.
If Musk's #AmericaParty survives, it'll be one of the few.
If it dies, it'll be one of many.
@erc.europa.eu
Harvard sociologist Theda Skocpol in TPM:
06.07.2025 00:52 β π 55 π 25 π¬ 2 π 3Nou, Ross Perot behaalde 19% der stemmen in 1992 en 8% in 1996.
Daarna scoorde een andere presidentskandidaat, Ralph Nader, 0-3%.
Kan me best voorstellen dat Elon Musk een score van enkele procenten behaalt en daarmee de verkiezingen van 2028 zou kunnen beslissen in het voordeel van een Democraat.
(1/5) Out now in Acta Politica: Populist parties increasingly target scientists and scientific knowledge. By analyzing 15 annual waves of representative panel data from the Netherlands (2007β2022), I examine to what extent populist parties fuel science skepticism among their supporters.
03.07.2025 17:48 β π 87 π 48 π¬ 2 π 6"In the US, we do have a generous welfare state - just not for everyone. It's mostly reserved for those over 65.
Why? Seniors vote [and] donate
If 25yos voted like 75yos, we... would have universal healthcare by now.
The Megabill slashes aid for the young while preserving... benefits for seniors"
Dwangsom maakt nog geen einde aan de zure nevel bij een kunstmestfabriek in Amsterdam
03.07.2025 15:55 β π 3 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0Uiteraard niet het waarschijnlijkste scenario.
Maar zeker mogelijk als de PVV vanwege haar isolement nog meer zetels in peilingen verliest en ook de VVD blijft kwakkelen.
Bijvoorbeeld vanwege een doorbraak van JA21.
Gecombineerd met een campagne die ditmaal eens niet zozeer over immigratie gaat.
Ja, BBB-, CU- en SGP-senatoren zouden welwillend staan tegenover zo'n kabinet-Bontenbal.
Als gezegd, een ander scenario dat kan leiden tot zijn premierschap is een 2003/2012-achtig duel:
CDA en GL-PvdA zouden uitmaken wie de grootste wordt en daarbij zo groeien dat ze tot elkaar veroordeeld raken.
Lof voor je voorspelling.
En vooral de 'pre-registratie'!
Scenario met redelijke mate van waarschijnlijkheid.
Pijnpunt: deze partijen tezamen hebben maar 25 zetels in de eerste kamer.
In elk geval tot 2027 zou dat voor premier Bontenbal telkens een bedel-tocht opleveren.
Zeker niet onmogelijk.
