Ness Sandoval

The St. Louis region stands at a demographic crossroads, SLU professor says Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future.

Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future. We dig into it with @ybytata.bsky.social on @stlpublicradio.bsky.social. #STL #population #census

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The St. Louis region stands at a demographic crossroads, SLU professor says Preliminary results from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2024 American Community Survey offer both encouragement and caution for the region’s future.

St. Louis is at a demographic crossroads: new 2024 Census data show both warning signs and opportunities.

Saint Louis University professor Ness Sándoval joined @stlonair.bsky.social to talk about how building more single‑family homes may be key to sustaining growth.

Saint Louis MSA Trends for Hispanic Or Latino Origin By Race | Created with Datawrapper Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

Trends for the Saint Louis MSA

www.datawrapper.de/_/D48rP/

National Trends for Hispanic Or Latino Origin By Race | Created with Datawrapper Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

Friends,

Join me today at noon on St. Louis on the Air as we consider the newest census release. It is a mixed story for our region, filled with both challenge and promise.

Here is some national data

Join us we talk how these trends look locally.

www.datawrapper.de/_/StTrO/

As St. Louis homes fall to post-storm demolition, residents consider: Stay or go? In the wake of the May 16 tornado, applications for demolition permits on private property doubled. Property owners are making tough decisions to raze their homes, and whether to stay or leave the cit...

“The city has about a year to keep hope alive. And there has to be some evidence of a rebuilding.” Ness Sándoval, St. Louis University demographer.

www.stlpr.org/health-scien...

There simply are not enough of projected births to offset the deaths of Baby Boomers, let alone GenX deaths. The region will shrink with migration.

If we work collaboratively to build housing and attract migration from other states and counties, we could see around 450,000 births during the period when Baby Boomers are passing away. This assumes no significant decline in fertility over the next two decades.

In the 15-county Saint Louis MSA, an estimated 625,000 Baby Boomers will die over the next two decades. The region will face a profound demographic test. If we are fortunate, we may welcome around 520,000 births during that same period. A more realistic estimate is closer to 450,000 we work today.

This is the path to growth when deaths outnumber births. The state added 101 residents from migration and 59,819 international migrants from 2020 to 2024. The city and county have to do a better job of welcoming new residents and investing in the current residents.

But there people like me that publicized the facts that let the public judge for themselves the demographic health of the state.

Missouri is struggling to recover from COVID. The state does not have the demographic resilience to return to a pattern of more births than deaths. Many people are upset that I made this map. Maybe it is a reminder that state never prioritized families with children. You can hide the facts.

Newsflash: families and children won’t wait 5–7 years for North Saint Louis neighborhoods to be rebuilt. The story of population loss is really about the city’s failure to see that the candle of hope is slowly burning out.

Attendance drops by almost half at St. Louis schools relocated after the tornado On Tuesday, the second day of school, 938 students showed up to their temporary buildings for a loss of 44% of enrollment since last year.

Blown off the Map: From Demographic Shock to Aftershock, Neighborhood Change After the May Tornado

The aftershock will be much larger than the demographic shock.

www.stltoday.com/news/local/e...

1-4 pm September 14th Oratorio STL Workshop at St. Francis de Sales Oratory

Courtyard Urbanism: Building Cities for Families

Register www.eventbrite.com/e/courtyard-...

Also see @ybytata.bsky.social posts

Geographical Mobility in the Past Year for Current Residence - Moved Different Metropolitan Statistical Area | Created with Datawrapper Create interactive, responsive & beautiful charts — no code required.

These are the top cities in 2023 where people relocated from another MSA. The demographic clock is ticking—Americans are on the move. Fewer are moving to Saint Louis City. The city is still ranked 4th in Missouri. It is the top destination in the STL region. www.datawrapper.de/_/tsZwr/

Saint Louis City loses when it prioritizes buildings over people. Migration into the city is slowing—only 8,036 residents moved in from another metro area in 2023, compared to 10,475 in 2010. Doubling down on buildings without children is not a wise investment.

I don’t think we’ll get a single ‘Wow’ moment in Saint Louis over the next few years, but rather a series of ‘Oh wow, what the F…’ moments. That’s my gut reaction today.

I meant to emphasize population, but are a top 25 by GDP.

I do not like to sound overly critical but when PR post charts without even checking the legend & claim STL is an emerging AI metro, I cant help but push back. We are the 23rd largest MSA, by economic size, we should already be a star hub. What we are really doing is bragging about being behind.

Demographer warns St. Louis could face early consequences of America’s falling birth rate SLU professor Ness Sándoval says that Detroit has been able to stem the tide of population loss by prioritizing families with kids — and that St. Louis would do well to follow its lead.

SLU Professor @ybytata.bsky.social says Detroit has been able to stem the tide of population loss by prioritizing families with kids — and that St. Louis would do well to follow its lead. #STL #population #birthrate #immigration #census

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Demographer warns St. Louis could face early consequences of America’s falling birth rate SLU professor Ness Sándoval says that Detroit has been able to stem the tide of population loss by prioritizing families with kids — and that St. Louis would do well to follow its lead.

Detroit once faced a crisis far greater than ours, with far more deaths than births. Today, it has reversed that reality, now welcomes more births than deaths. The city is growing. In my view this transformation began with a mayor who believed in families with children

www.stlpr.org/show/st-loui...

The city should not be surprise or complain when data shows that people are leaving the city.

Fact check our City of St. Louis government’s values by examining THREE new taxing districts that are currently moving thru the approval process for the Jefferson Arms project.
Lowball estimate: $8 M in public money💰via:
#JeffArmsCID 25 yr
#JeffArmsTDD 25 yr
#JeffArmsPID 40 yr
+ $17.4 M #JeffArmsTIF

3 months after tornado, St. Louis residents face a harsh reality. 'Not going to be rebuilt.' Some residents still cling to the hope that their homes can be rebuilt. But many have already left, doubting that rebuilding is worth the effort.

I am always struck by how often Saint Louis City forgets its obligation to care for the common good of its residents.
www.stltoday.com/news/local/m...

Saint Louis’ future will not be secured by any single city, county, or neighborhood, but by a shared commitment to One Saint Louis. Join as we continue our discussion to grow the region and invest in families with children

Rockwood enrolls 19K students today. In ten years, that number is expected to fall to 15k and by 2045, it could drop to just 12K-10K. Demographics matter, especially when a community has already seen a steady decline in families with children. Fewer families mean fewer students.

I believe that website had the document and link to complete the online census. The data was not eliminated but important links and reports were deleted. Response rates are gone, etc. I sure most can be found at other sites, but my guess it is related to redistrict efforts.

Friends,
A reminder that tomorrow at noon, I will join St. Louis on the Air.
We will speak not merely of numbers, but of the living story of our region. Its people, its neighborhoods, its promise. If you care about the common good and the future we will leave to the next generation join us.

Strange. The 2020 data is still available on the main site. Let me check to see if the api is down. The data exists on multiple platforms outside the census.

Most people live within a framework of provincialism, convinced that nhs are still full of children. Yet when they confront reality, those comfortable illusions begin to fade. The truth is clear: regions that work together can weather the demographic storm, fragmentation sets the stage for disaster.