Neil Shearing

Wrote a piece for @theworldtoday.org and @chathamhouse.org on US-China fracturing and what we get wrong about the future of globalisation...

There's nothing good about high and rising US Treasury yields. The only silver lining is that it shuts down all the #MMT nonsense of recent years, which claimed that "deficits don't matter." Deficits do matter and fiscal space is very much finite. Time for #MMT to finally go the way of the dodo...

Wrote this last month in the wake of the April 2nd tariff chaos. Still feels like a reasonable base case.

The collapse in port berth bookings in US looks alarming but here's some important context - YTD port throughput at LA Long Beach is already up ~10% on last year as firms have sought to front-run tariffs. Inventory-to-sales ratios also rising.

Walk Lincoln Memorial to Congress - stop at Smithsonian if you’ve time. G&T on the terrace at the Willard optional.

The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy Buy The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy by Shearing, Neil (ISBN: 9781399825726) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.

Out in August, but available for pre-order in the usual places. More to follow!
www.amazon.co.uk/Fractured-Ag...

It will create costs for some, but bring benefits to others - see, for example, Apple’s announcement that it will respond to US tariffs on China by increasing production in India.

It’s the story of how a deepening superpower rivalry between the US and China will reshape the global economy, with implications for everything from trade and capital flows, to technology transfers and efforts to secure critical minerals.

Today feels like a good day to announce the publication of my book, “The Fractured Age”.

😬

Striking that China has announced a target for REAL GDP growth this year of 5% but the budget docs from today's Work Plan suggest that the government is expecting NOMINAL GDP growth of just ~4.9%. So much for a reflationary recovery.

“Why don’t you say thank you”

Brexit has never looked quite so daft

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused.

(Appreciate the macro/Elvis Costello Venn Diagram overlap is niche)

My latest - pushing back on the idea that we're witnessing a fundamental geoeconomic realignment. Weird times but there's still more that unites than divides the US and Europe. The big schism remains between the US and China.

www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/geoecon...

This is one is at least accurate

Joking aside, haven't looked at Twitter for a while - hadn't realised quite how grim it has become

That's my headstone sorted

Updated our estimates of the UK government's headroom against its fiscal rules after this week's gilt sell-off. It's... tight...

Meanwhile....

Rise in vacancies has rattled the bond market today - but drop in the quits rate telling a different story...

Starmer cannot survive this

Yup

Looked at how other countries responded to US tariffs in the first Trump administration. Key points:

Of all the dumb things that I've seen said about tariffs over the past couple of weeks, the dumbest is that they help to close trade deficits.

Back from meetings with clients in the US. Still think everyone is too optimistic on the likelihood of additional significant tax cuts under Trump (beyond the extension of the 2018 cuts).

Generous as ever… we should catch up soon

Thoughts on where we stand after the latest data. Become more concerned about labour markets, but soft landing still seems most likely outcome. With that said, “data dependence” is no way to anchor policy.

www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/data-sp...