Parag Mahajan

Any economists on here who cen speak about experiences in their (non-US) country with the politicization of official statistics? DM me.
#EconSky

Thank you so much!

Thank you both! Let me know if you want to see updated draft(s)

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

Everyone who helps the creation of meaningful accurate data for the good of the public: I admire your service and appreciate you
❤️🧡🤍🩷❤️

Should investors care about ICE raids? Deportation nation

🚨 Should (macro) investors should care about ICE raids? on.ft.com/4f34KQz

In Sudan, where children clung to life, doctors say USAID cuts have been fatal The Trump administration’s cuts to USAID had an immediate and deadly impact in war-ravaged Sudan, according to civilians, doctors and aid officials.

Please read this @khoureld.bsky.social story about the consequences of USAID cuts.

Children are dying from starvation on the streets of Sudan — and the food that could save them, already paid for by our government, is languishing in U.S. warehouses.

(No paywall)

Life Out of the Shadows: the Impacts of Regularization Programs on the Lives of Forced Migrants Abstract. We examine the well-being effects of a regularization program offered to half a million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. We collected data

What an important contribution from UMD (Go Terps!) alum @anamibanez.bsky.social and co-authors. Programs that integrate refugees work and are fiscally more efficient for host governments as evidenced in Colombia. #EconSky check out great paper: academic.oup.com/jeea/article...

Hoping to expand on whether and how effects spilled over up and down the supply chain in an updated draft, soon.

Check out some of my new work on H-2B workers and firms during the pandemic. Thanks to @upjohninstitute.bsky.social and @bradhershbein.bsky.social for their support!

Economists love when random variation makes it possible to measure causal impacts. I wrote a CRS 2-page summary of three studies that use random variation in application processing to measure the impact of the H-2B visa program on employers and employees: www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

The reason why this article is so bad is that the only argument it marshals against international students is a fallacy. There isn’t a fixed set of slots for people to compete for, given by nature. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/01/o...

screen shot from NBER website that contains paper title, authors, and abstract: Targeted Education Transfers Reduced Long-Run and Intergenerational Ethnic Inequality in Chile Adrienne M. Lucas, Patrick J. McEwan & David Torres Irribarra Working Paper 33798 DOI 10.3386/w33798 Issue Date May 2025 Since 1991, Chile has provided large, renewable cash grants to indigenous children in lower-income households, conditional on school enrollment. We estimate intent-to-treat effects of grant exposure on indigenous adults and their children, leveraging variation in expected grant exposure across birth cohorts and never-treated adults, and using fixed effects to absorb unobserved variables shared by adults born in the same year and community. Cohorts with the greatest exposure had 0.6 more years of schooling, 10% more hours worked, and 22% higher labor earnings, reducing pre-treatment ethnic differences. Mothers’ exposure increased their children’s early-grade test scores and reduced second-generation grant receipt.

New @nber.org working paper "Targeted Education Transfers Reduced Long-Run and Intergenerational Ethnic Inequality in Chile" with #PatrickMcEwan & #DavidTorresIrribarra.

Title summarizes it. More details: www.nber.org/papers/w33798

My cake on a face!

Opinion | The Science I Would Be Doing if I Weren’t in ICE Detention

www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/o...

How many farmworkers in the US have no work authorization? I've published a guestimate in my new CRS 2-pager, "Work Authorization Among Hired Agricultural Workers," www.congress.gov/crs-product/...

(One common estimate is 42%. That estimate doesn't include H-2A workers in the denominator.)

'We're citizens!': Oklahoma City family traumatized after ICE raids home, but they weren't suspects A woman says her family’s fresh start in Oklahoma turned into a nightmare after federal immigration agents raided their home, taking their phones, laptops, and life savings – even though they were …

Please highlight this story.

ICE stormed into the wrong house, trashed the place, and made women/girls stand outside in the rain in their underwear. ICE also stole phones, laptops, and cash savings from the family, who moved to OKC two weeks ago.

kfor.com/news/local/w...

ICE Deports 3 U.S. Citizen Children Held Incommunicado Prior to the Deportation | American Civil Liberties Union Families disappeared and isolated without legal access; one child with cancer deported without medication and pregnant mother deported as well

This morning ICE deported 3 more US citizen children held incommunicado.
The families were disappeared and isolated without legal access; one child with cancer deported without medication and pregnant mother deported as well www.aclu.org/press-releas...

New images could change cancer diagnostics, but ICE detained the Harvard scientist who analyzes them Without scientist Kseniia Petrova’s expertise, no one can fully unlock the data’s potential, putting crucial advancements in early cancer detection at risk.

Almost every line of this story would have been simply unbelievable a few months ago:

—Pioneering cancer researcher;
—*Arrested* at airport in Boston;
—Now indefinite ICE detention in Louisiana;
—"Crime": not declaring some frog-embryo samples for research.

Read it.
www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...

The Impact of Return Migration on Economic Development Abstract. Mexican migration to the United States—one of the largest flows in human history—inverted in the late 2000s, and during the next decade more Mexicans returned home than those who migrated north. We exploit this historical reversal to estimate the effects of return migration on economic development in Mexico. We find that return migration leads to higher levels of development through improved income, labor, health, and educational outcomes. Our findings suggest that the benefits of migration extend beyond individuals’ tenure abroad, as accumulated capital, skills, and social norms have the potential to contribute to development back home.

Unprecedented return migration from the US has contributed to Mexico's economic development in recent decades. In the March issue, by José R. Bucheli and Matías Fontenla zurl.co/h2IZ1

Trump's immigration agenda isn't popular, actually Polling shows most Americans oppose the details of enforcement and the president’s most extreme tactics

Despite what you’ve probably heard, Trump’s immigration agenda isn’t actually popular. While Americans sometimes approve of “the way he is handling immigration” in abstract, they are very negative on the details.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trumps-imm...

Harvard has set an example for other higher-ed institutions - rejecting an unlawful and ham-handed attempt to stifle academic freedom, while taking steps to make sure students can benefit from an environment of intellectual inquiry, rigorous debate and mutual respect. Let’s hope others follow suit.

Legal permanent resident of the U.S., showing up to apply for citizenship, with no allegations of criminal activity, is arrested and detained by masked police.
This is fascism, and that is not a word I use lightly.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/n...

bloomberg: ~90% of deported migrants to el salvador had no criminal record

Here is the situation if I’m understanding it correctly:

1. They are deporting lawful immigrants erroneously to prisons overseas

2. They are claiming no recourse to return these individuals

3. They say they are open to deporting citizens in the same way

No, absolutely not. I do not think we should be reading that into anything. The primary reason the government does not want him back is the much simpler explanation: they don't want to admit any mistakes, his very presence would be a huge embarrassment to them, and he'll tell tales about CECOT.

If it weren't for the tariffs, this would be one of the biggest stories right now.

A remedial education program in India worked well when teachers were given strict implementation guidelines. It worked just as well when teachers had discretion to adapt. www.nber.org/papers/w33242 by Beg, @annefitz13.bsky.social, @jkerwin.bsky.social, @profalucas.bsky.social, & @kwrahman.com

Opinion | ‘Liberation Day’ Was Messy, but Trump’s Tariffs Can Still Work It’s a matter of timing and communication.

this is a great example of trying to rationalize a fundamentally irrational decision. you’ll notice that at no point does cass ever articulate what the american public is supposed to get out of the deal here. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/08/o...