Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...

Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?

What kind of democracy do we want? Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end

Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...

Reform's winning post is closer than I thought Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election

Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...

To stop Reform, change the voting system Without change, Farage could become prime minister even though most voters can't stand him

Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...

Fighting big tobacco: now for the endgame One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do

Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...

'Defeat the Palestinians, then set them free' Revealed: the private warning of the Israeli general who feared that occupying the West Bank and Gaza would lead to disaster

On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...

A pollster warns: beware of the polls Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. Time to change their ways

From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...

Starmer's biggest mistake is taking progressive voters for granted. New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom

New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...

The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset Ahead of the UK-EU summit on May 19, London is aiming to reset its relations with Brussels by focusing on defense, migration, and trade. However, meaningful progress might be limited without a major r...

Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible.

carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

Who would benefit from a Reform-Tory pact? Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch should look to history before agreeing to stand down candidates in each other’s target seats

Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...

Labour is learning the wrong lessons The local election results show Reform is not Labour’s greatest threat—it’s other progressive parties

Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...

The local elections are a four-horse race Labour, the Conservatives, Reform or the Liberal Democrats could win the most votes on 1st May. But which party has the most to gain?

Next week's local elections will be more important and more confusing than ever. My blog for Prospect discusses how to separate the signal from the noise www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

The UK’s Labour-Tory duopoly is over The latest polls show a tight three-way race in Britain between Labour, Reform and the Conservatives, with the Lib Dems not far behind

The conditions that produced the old Labour-Tory duopoly have vanished. Despite last year's landslide, single-party governments are likely to be the exception from now on www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the...

Churchill showed Starmer the way Trump is causing big problems. A big plan is needed to stop him

Churchill showed Starmer they. My latest Substack post argues that President Trump is causing big problems, and a big plan is needed to stop him.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/churchill-...

How Labour can avoid defeat in 2029 Attlee and Wilson were punished for delaying the inevitable. Starmer can avoid their fate – if he acts fast

As Rachel Reeves prepares for this week’s Spring Statement, my new Substack argues that she should heed the lessons from Harold Wilson and Clement Attlee, who were both punished for delaying the inevitable.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

The truth about Trump's popularity A memo to Keir Starmer as he heads to Washington

As Keir Starmer prepares to head to Washington, here is what he needs to know aboui Trump's popularity - what the preisdent claims, and the very different truth. kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-truth-...

How to defeat populism Spoiler alert: it won't be easy

Reform vies for first place in Britain’s polls. AfD is set to make big gains in Germany this month. Le Pen could be France’s next President. Mainstream parties need a different strategy to defeat populism. Here is my analysis kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-to-def...

A modest suggestioin for Dionald Trump. Find a new home for the people of Gaza, where the climate is similar, the infrstructure already there, and lots of space. The solution is surely obvious: Texas.

Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics

Mainstream parties are in big trouble, and not just in Britain. I have been working with the Tony Blair Institute on a report that argues for a radical change in their strategy: disruption, not continuity. Results from a six-country survey makes clear what they need to do.
bit.ly/3X3c9Yz.

Parties and their voters are not the same The total votes for progressive parties usually outnumber votes for the Right. We should beware of how we interpret that

Parties and their voters are not the same. My latest Substack post continues my debate with Neal Lawson of Compass about whether Britain’s electorate has a near-permanent progressive majority. kellnerp.substack.com/p/parties-an...

Voters are not as progressive as the Left claims At least not yet. Supporters of radical policies should be honest about the state of public opinion - then campaign to change it

Voters are not as progressive as the Left claims. My latest Substack post looks at a test case – with exclusive new evidence of questions I commissioned from Deltapoll. They tell a different story from that told by the left-leaning campaign group, Compass. kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

Is our two-party system on the way out? It has survived past predictions of its collapse, but looks more precarious than ever.

Is our two-party system on the way out? The past century has been punctuated by predictions that it would collapse. It hasn't. My new year Substack post discusses whether it now faces a more potent challenge than in the past. kellnerp.substack.com/p/is-our-two...

Memo to Nigel: how you can become PM The bookies favour Nigel Farage. Rich Tories are switching sides. Reform is climbing in the polls. Could it actually win the next general election?

Elon Musk is talking to Nigel Farage about how to help
Reform. Could Farage become Prime Minister? Unlikely but not impossible. Here is what it would take. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-ni...

Memo to Nigel: how you can become PM The bookies favour Nigel Farage. Rich Tories are switching sides. Reform is climbing in the polls. Could it actually win the next general election?

Twas the night(mare) before Christmas... Suppose Farage asked one of his team at Reform to set out a strategy for victory. This Substack post is my stab at the advice they could give him. kellnerp.substack.com/p/memo-to-ni...

Politics is in an Age of No In Britain and around the world, it’s very clear what voters don’t want. What isn’t clear is what they do want

Forget 'Yes we can'. Now it's 'No we can't'. Politics is changing round the world - including Britain. My blog for @Prospect_uk has some bad news for Keir Starmer www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/views/column...

Kim Leadbeater's incomplete victory Human rights won: good. Religious objections were barely mentioned: not so good

@kimleadbeater won a famous victory on Friday with her #AssistedDyingBill. Good. But religious objections were barely mentioned: not so good. Read my Substack post here (and, if you wish, sign up to future posts free of charge) kellnerp.substack.com/p/kim-leadbe...

Exposed: the truth about Labour's Red Wall "triumph" The government's refusal to undo the damage done by Brexit is based on a fallacy

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' have ruledout an EU deal that restores frictionless trade flows from belief that their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest post for Substack challenges this belief. kellnerp.substack.com/p/exposed-th...

Exposed: the truth about Labour's Red Wall "triumph" The government's refusal to undo the damage done by Brexit is based on a fallacy

Exposed: the myth about Labour's Red Wall triumph. Ministers' have ruled out an EU deal that restores frictionless trade.They think their more limited policy won back votes in the Red Wall. My latest Substack post challenges this belief. (Subscribe for free)
kellnerp.substack.com/exposed-the-...

Prospect Magazine - Britain's leading monthly current affairs magazine Prospect offers independent, balanced analysis and long-form journalism taking readers to the heart of the biggest stories, ideas and issues of our time

Two cheers for America's pollsters, but none for
@jaselzer or @natesilver538.bsky.social . What went right last week, what went wrong, and why. My analysis for @prospectmagazine.bsky.social . All my blogs are available on kellnerp.substack.com
From prospectmagazine.co.uk