Half the picture: what ‘The British General Election of 2024’ doesn’t reveal This 22nd book in the series lacks something that made its predecessors so compelling—an understanding of the people involved in the campaign, not jus...

The book that political junkies have been waiting for has just been published. The British General Election of 2024 is the latest in a series that goes back to 1945. This review, first published by Prospect, discusses its strengths – and its gaps.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/7209...

Middle America has turned against Trump Voters on Main Street accuse him of having the anti-Midas touch

From Greenland to Minneapolis, Donald Trump is in trouble with middle America. His troubles extend to his policies across the board. Voters now regard him as anti-Midas: everything he touches turns to dross.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/middle-ame...

Why the right-wing media want a Reform-Conservative pact… …and why they are likely to be disappointed

The right-wing media want a Reform-Tory pact. My latest Substack post analyses why they are unlikely to get their way.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/why-the-ri...

Can Britain succeed where France has failed? Needed: a fair, affordable plan for pensions. It will take guts, but might be on the way

In their hearts, MPs from all parties know that Britain needs a new, fair and affordable plan for pensions. My Substack (subscriptions are free) argues that It will take guts, but one might be on the way

kellnerp.substack.com/p/can-britai...

In the early hours of May 7, 1945, Germany surrendered to the allies, including Russia, 1,415 days after Hitler's troops invaded the Soviet Union. Putin's troops invaded Ukraine 1,415 days ago this morning. The "special military operation" has now lasted longer than the "great patriotic war".

Starmer's options in the last chance saloon Resign, be removed, or find the "wow" factor

My new year post argues that Labour’s leader must find the “wow” factor if he is not to resign, be removed or condemn Labour to certain defeat at the next election
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-o...

2025: the year when the rules of ice cream battles changed British politics Today’s party leaders face the same basic challenge as Mr Whippy

For my final Substack post of 2025 I look at the wholesale transfer of support from the main legacy parties (Lab + Con) to the surging insurgents (Reform + Green) - and their similarity to the tactics of ice cream vans

kellnerp.substack.com/p/2025-the-y...

Rachel Reeves’s biggest crisis isn’t over Productivity remains a headache. Blame big tech, not just the Tories

My latest Substack post analyses Britain’s continuing problems with productivity. Spoiler alert: they are not just the fault of the Tories. They go deeper than that.
PS: Subscription to my posts is free.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/rachel-ree...

The majority opposed to Brexit has reached eight million Ministers need courage to keep it that way

Suddenly the talk at Westminster is of the government wanting a closer relationship with the European Union. What should we make of this? My latest Substack crunches the numbers.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-majori...

How Labour could win without Starmer It won’t be easy. The attempt might fail. How could the party maximise its chances of success?

If Labour changes its leader, how can it win the next election? My post considers how the new prime minister could maximise their chances of success. kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-labour...

Thatcher’s victories have lessons for us all Progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories

Last month marked the centenary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth. In my latest Substack post, I argue that progressives, and not just her fans, have much to learn from her electoral victories

kellnerp.substack.com/p/thatchers-...

Revealed: the rule change that puts Starmer at risk A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister

A decision that passed unnoticed at last year’s Labour conference spells danger for the prime minister. My latest Substack post explains all.

kellnerp.substack.com/p/revealed-t...

A time to moan and a time to choose To become prime minister, Farage must defy history.

To become prime minister, Nigel Farage must defy history. My new post for Subnstack discusses his prospects

kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-time-to-...

Peers beware Flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

My latest Substack examines how flawed polling and flawed journalism are distorting the debate over assisted dying

kellnerp.substack.com/p/peers-beware

Voters are not listening New research uncovers the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice

My new Substack reports fresh data that reveal the gap between what politicians say and what voters notice.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/voters-are...

“Ignorance is Strength”. Was Orwell’s Big Brother right? Yes – for populists. Parties like Reform rely on voters overstating the scale of today’s problems

Populists rely on voters overstating the scale of today's problems. Polls show that this is far too common in Britain - and around the world
kellnerp.substack.com/p/ignorance-...

History’s warning for Starmer and Badenoch The "respect index" shows that their problems are even worse than they think

Keir Starmer are in worse troubl;e than they realise. My new "respect index" compares what is happening now with what happened after past change elctions. All my Substack posts are free. Read this one here. kellnerp.substack.com/p/historys-w...

How the Tories can avoid the abyss… … and the two people who can help them see off Reform

We know the Tories are in terrible trouble. My latest post looks at its chances of survival, drawing on the lessons from history, and names two people who can help it see off Reform

kellnerp.substack.com/p/how-the-to...

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

Labour and the Tories are in even greater peril than they think. New research finds fundamental changes in the ways voters decide which party to support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/labour-and...

Corbyn and Sultana are looking for a name for their new party. Votey McVoteface?

What kind of democracy do we want? Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end

Until now, Britain’s voters have normally chosen not just their MPs but, in practice, their prime minister. Those days may be coming to an end. This is the second post about tackling the problems with our voting system
kellnerp.substack.com/p/what-kind-...

Reform's winning post is closer than I thought Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election

Revealed: the brutal arithmetic that will shape the next general election. Nigel Farage could become prime minister even if Reform falls short of 30% support

kellnerp.substack.com/p/reforms-wi...

To stop Reform, change the voting system Without change, Farage could become prime minister even though most voters can't stand him

Last year our voting system punished Nigel Farage. Last month it rewarded him. My latest Substack post argues that First Past The Post has served us well but now needs to go.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/to-stop-re...

Fighting big tobacco: now for the endgame One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do

Thr war against big tobacco is not over. One of Britain’s most successful campaigns still has work to do.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/fighting-b...

'Defeat the Palestinians, then set them free' Revealed: the private warning of the Israeli general who feared that occupying the West Bank and Gaza would lead to disaster

On June 5, 1967, Israel launched the Six Day war. One of the architects of its victory was a distant relative. I can now reveal his private warning before the war of the disaster facing his country if it ended up occupying Gaza and the West Bank.
kellnerp.substack.com/p/defeat-the...

A pollster warns: beware of the polls Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. Time to change their ways

From winter fuel allowance and child benefit to immigration and Europe, Labour’s ministers have been led astray by the data they rely on. My Substack post argues that it is time to change their ways
kellnerp.substack.com/p/a-pollster...

Starmer's biggest mistake is taking progressive voters for granted. New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom

New research by YouGov shows that, even with its support down to 23 per cent, Labour may not have reached rock bottom. Here is my analysis for Substack
kellnerp.substack.com/p/starmers-b...

The Moment of Truth for a UK-EU Reset Ahead of the UK-EU summit on May 19, London is aiming to reset its relations with Brussels by focusing on defense, migration, and trade. However, meaningful progress might be limited without a major r...

Will the UK-EU summit on May 19 be a turning point in their relationship, or just a minor staging post where nothing big is achieved? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org looks at what each side wants and where deals are possible.

carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

Who would benefit from a Reform-Tory pact? Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch should look to history before agreeing to stand down candidates in each other’s target seats

Some rare good news for Keir Starmer: there won't be a Tory-Reform pact, so the right-wing vote wil be divided agan at the next general election. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk crunches the numbers and sets out the reasons
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/699...

Labour is learning the wrong lessons The local election results show Reform is not Labour’s greatest threat—it’s other progressive parties

Labour risks learning the wrong lessons from last week's elections. My blog for @prospectmagazine.co.uk gives three reasons to ignore the pro-Brexit lobby in their ranks
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...