Don Johnson

Tomorrow is Election Day in #TN07. Here’s a map of the early & absentee vote share by county, showing how much each county contributed to each primary & party share by county. Dems usually overperform in early/abs votes so expect the GOP share to increase with tomorrow's totals.

Vote change in Ontario vs. 2021 - both major parties gained votes at the expense of left (NDP/Green) and right (PPC) alternatives. Mostly the same story across Canada tonight.

CBC projects Liberal PM Mark Carney will retain government - whether it is a majority or minority is still a question. Regardless of how one feels about this result, the last couple of months in Canadian politics have made for a wild political story.

The NDP currently leads in only one seat across Canada... in *checks notes* rural Alberta??? (just one poll/precinct reporting, will definitely change blue as more come in)

Canada election update: Conservatives seem to be beating expectations so far tonight, at least in Atlantic Canada where Liberals need to dominate. Only Atlantic has votes in so far so there is a long, long way to go.

Some rather extreme age polarization in today's German election:

If BSW were to cross the 5% threshold, not only would it go from 0 seats to ~35 seats, it would force the CDU into coalition with not just the SPD, but (likely) the Greens - a party which BSW's founder is most culturally opposed to.

Belatedly posting estimates of TN’s Presidential results by State House, State Senate, and US House districts. Precinct splits complicate calculations, but Rep. Gillespie (R) won a Harris-voting district, and Rep. Glynn (D)’s district (may have) narrowly supported Trump.

The Secretary of State's office published Tennessee's 11/5 election results by precinct moments ago. Here is a map of these results:

The purple areas in the inset map show Blackburn overperforming in the affluent Oak Hill, Green Hills, and Belle Meade neighborhoods in the southern part of the county, while Trump overperformed in more diverse regions like Antioch and Donelson.

Nashville's partisan split for US Senate mirrored (62D-35R) the Presidential contest with a few less votes cast for Senate. The inset map details the differences between the two contests. There was one Harris-Blackburn precinct (outlined in yellow) at Brentwood Hills Church of Christ on Franklin Pk.

Map of Hamilton Co. TN (Chattanooga) Presidential results by precinct. The county had a 3.3pt margin swing towards Trump '24, the smallest of the state's big-4 urban counties.

By a small margin, Knoxville voters rejected a charter amendment which would have returned city council elections to at-large citywide votes rather than districts. Remarkably little variation between precincts with north Knoxville more opposed and center/west areas supportive.

Map of the Presidential results by precinct from Knox Co. TN. The margin swing of the county was 4.4pts towards Trump '24 which was pretty evenly distributed. In 2020, all precincts within the I-640/40 loop were blue, this year Westview and the area near Alice Bell Park went red.

Map of the Nashville transit referendum vote, which passed by a nearly 2-1 margin. "For" earned a majority in every council district - strongest support was D6 (81%), weakest was D10 (55%).

Here’s a map of the 11/5 Presidential results in Nashville by precinct and council district. Harris won every council dist., with closest margins in D11 and D35 where she led by just under 4pts. Compared to '20, Trump gained 1.6K votes while Harris received 18K fewer than Biden.

TN recently lost a great statesman, our 43rd Governor Winfield Dunn, the 1st Republican Gov in the modern era. Here's a visual of his runs for office - his win in 1970 and valiant comeback attempt in 1986.

Here's a map of the other TN Senate incumbent to lose their primary - Frank Niceley, who served 6 terms in the House and was seeking his 4th in the Senate, lost to Jesse Seal 12-point margin.

Here's a precinct-level map of the 8/1 primary in TN State Sen. Dist. 4, where incumbent Jon Lundberg lost a close race to Trump-endorsed Bobby Harshbarger.
Lundberg won Bristol, downtown Kingsport, and Rogersville, but could not overcome Harshbarger's margins in the rural parts of the district.

On 8/1, TN voters wisely voted to retain Supreme Court Justice Dwight Tarwater by a 73-27 margin, slightly higher than the average retain vote in the last 10 years. Replace votes were more prevalent in Dem-voting areas, and all but 3 of the Replace precincts were in Big-4 cities.

As we await data from all counties to be published, here's a preview of the 8/1 US House Dist. 5 GOP primary results by precinct in 3 co's that have released unofficial tallies thus far - Davidson, Williamson, and Maury.

With TN's primary elections tomorrow, here's a map comparing early/abs turnout with Aug 2020. Most counties saw fewer early votes than 4 yrs ago, but you can spot the hot primaries or competitive county generals where turnout hasn't dropped as much (or in 7 counties increased).

Here's the TN precinct-level map for the 3/5 GOP Presidential primary. As is the case elsewhere, Haley performed better in affluent neighborhoods in urban counties - but not well enough to win places like East Memphis, Germantown, Brentwood, and Farragut.

Per a Twitter follower request, here's the 3/5 GOP Presidential primary in Williamson Co, TN. Haley received her 2nd-highest % in the state, but that was only enough to win one precinct (downtown Franklin) and hold Trump's margins down in Brentwood.

Looking at the # of GOP vs. Dem Super Tuesday votes in Nashville, where the more competitive GOP race made this map much more interesting. Republican votes led in 13 council districts, compared with 1-4 in recent federal elections. Surprising red precincts downtown, east bank and midtown.

Another contest on the 3/5 Democratic primary ballot was Circuit Court Judge Division IV. Stephanie Williams won with a 53pt margin, carrying almost every precinct.

Incumbent Davidson Co. (Nashville) Assessor Vivian Wilhoite defeated her March 5 Democratic primary opponent Tomesia Day by a 30pt margin. Wilhoite earned 72% of the vote in her fmr. Metro Council Dist. 29 and did even better in north Nashville's Dist. 2.

President Biden received ~90% of the vote in Nashville but there were concentrations of uncommitted+write-in Dem primary voters, particularly in Woodbine and Glencliff neighborhoods of Council Dist. 16. (21%) Haynes/Bordeaux were most pro-Biden, with less than 5% uncommitted.

Davidson (Nashville) was Nikki Haley's top county in TN on Super Tuesday. As is the case elsewhere, her 36% of the vote was concentrated in upscale areas like Belle Meade & Oak Hill where GOP support has waned post-2016. She won 7 of 35 council districts, but not downtown (Dist. 19).

Varda Space Industries’ spacecraft, W-1, successfully landed at the Utah Test and Training Range on February 21, 2024. This marks the first time a commercial... Varda Capsule Reentry - Full Video from LEO to Earth

An absolutely stunning view from Varda Space Industries of what re-entering the Earth's atmosphere from space is like: