Uncrewed

With November fast approaching, I'm announcing a new map series on here.

From tomorrow until the end of month, I'll be posting at least one map a day of each competitive state legislative district up for grabs next month! From New Jersey to Virginia and all the specials!

Illinois Dems finally got a candidate to announce for the Republican-held #SD24 in northern/central DuPage County (Harris+3) and his name is, I kid you not...

Ben McAdams

Back in 1990, Connecticut had a chaotic gubernatorial election. Two Congressmen ran for the job, but in the end, it was a former US Senator who won it.

Former Republican Senator Lowell Weicker formed his own centrist Connecticut Party and ended up winning here by three points.

Last year, California's #AD36 flipped red on both the Presidential level and the State Assembly level. Nestled in Imperial/eastern Riverside Counties, this majority-Hispanic district swung from Biden+15 to Trump+1.

At the same time, Assembly Republicans flipped it by 4 points.

Shoutout to Will County Board Member Frankie Pretzel

Yes, you, Mr. Pretzel

I probably will do that if I ever get around to making IDC primary maps

Over in Alaska, Louise Stutes was one of the major Republicans players in the State House who left the GOP caucus to form a Majority Coalition with the Dems and Independents.

She ascended to the Speakership after 2020 and beat back a Republican challenger in 2022 in her #HD05.

Candidate filing is from October 27th to November 3rd

Harris won it by 38 last year

Don't think anyone has noticed this yet, but an hour ago, #IL05 Congressman Mike Quigley updated his campaign finance page with the state of Illinois to show that he's running for Mayor of Chicago in 2027.

Could be soon officially joining a *VERY* crowded field

There's one Republican left on the Cook County Board of Commissioners, Sean Morrison in the 17th District.

His days on the board might be numbered though, because he represents a Harris+1 district in western Cook County and only won by 3 against an underfunded opponent in 2022.

What was he cooking

As someone who goes to Rosemont/O'Hare somewhat often, I can vouch it is a very cursed place lol

Redistricting changed it a little, but it backed Trump by 9

In most of the non-internal/non-partisan polls taken of this race, Ciattarelli hasn't been able to really escape Trump's approval rating:

This poll: Ciattarelli- 42%, Trump- 42%
Emerson: Ciattarelli- 43%, Trump- 41%
Quinnipiac: Ciattarelli- 41%, Trump- 41%
bsky.app/profile/poll...

There's only one Republican left who represents Chicago in the State House, Brad Stephens of #HD20.

Stephens won his first bid for re-election in 2020, defeating Democrat Michelle Darbro by 9 despite being outspent by millions of dollars. He's won uncontested twice since then.

The most vulnerable Republican in the Pennsylvania State Senate next year is probably Tracy Pennycuick in #SD24.

This district in northern Montco backed Trump by two last year and elected Pennycuick in 2022 by four points, but both Fetterman & Shapiro won here in 2022.

Yeah I've heard that Ruwa Romman is going to jump in soon

Probably. It's a state that voted less than a point to the rest of the country in 2024 in what's shaping up to be a blue midterm.

You're also running the risk of alienating some Democrats who would normally vote blue but don't want to vote for someone with Duncan's record.

There are incredible things happening in Alabama.

And by incredible I mean absolutely insane

Her husband got diagnosed with cancer, so she decided not to run in order to focus on his recovery

There are already several prominent Dems running. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is the frontrunner right now, but former DeKalb County CEO/also former Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond can't be counted out.

Plus multiple state legislators are running

This isn't like an Ohio or Alaska situation where you need a candidate who can reach out to conservative voters in order to win. Georgia was only Trump+2 last year and has two Democratic Senators who haven't bragged about busting unions.

We can (and should) do better!

To Duncan's credit, he did apologize. But it does also make a lot of sense why Georgia Democrats aren't sold on him (granted this is a KLB internal):

The pro-Geoff Duncan for Georgia Governor centrists on the other website are really weird.

Like, they are either ignoring why Democrats wouldn't be okay with a candidate who says stuff like this or just ignore it for the sake of "WELL HE'S THE BEST GENERAL ELECTION CANDIDATE SO SHUT UP"

It's evil New Mexico

After the DuPage County GOP was nearly wiped out at the local level earlier this year, I'm interested to see if the bottom continues to fall out for them at the County level.

They have 6 County Board members left, but 5 are up for re-election next year. Could be a wipeout!

I don't get the "unsustainable on the Senate level" point.

Biden literally won 25 states and lost a few more by less than five. Obviously the median Senate seat is going to be to the right of the country, but it's not like apocalyptic enough that you need to start selling out to Arkansas lol.

I love when absolutely insane people say something absolutely insane and then act like it's no big deal.

"Yeah the penguins control laser beams in Ecuador, you didn't know that?"

Is it just me or is the campaigns for state legislature kind of dull this year in New Jersey?

Doesn't seem like many ads are running and I haven't heard much about how close things are in districts. Maybe it's all going to depend on the top of the ticket, similar to 2021?