Uncrewed

It looks like firefighter Chedrick Greene has won the Democratic nomination for Michigan's #SD35, the Harris+1 seat vacated by now-Congresswoman Kristen McDonald Rivet.

Greene, who was backed by Rivet and labor groups, defeated Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh.

Moreno will succeed fellow DSAer/Mayor Zohran Mamdani after getting the endorsements of everyone from AOC to Gregory Meeks.

Honestly one of the most impressive candidates I've seen in a while

Yeah it looks like Diana Moreno has won #AD36 easily

This means no special election for his State Senate seat, but this does signal that he's probably an underdog for re-election in his Harris+18 seat this November.

And Hwang loses 55.8-43.9, a staggering 16 point swing from his four-point win here in his 2024 State Senate win.

This town backed Harris by 26 points, but is more Republican downballot
bsky.app/profile/uncr...

The New Mexico candidate filing deadline for statewide offices was today and it appears that Republicans didn't field candidates for both State Auditor & State Treasurer.

If true, then it'd be the first time a Democratic state office holder will win uncontested since 1990!

Surprisingly very busy election week ahead:

Tonight- Special elections from New York to Arkansas
Thursday- #NJ11 primary
Saturday- Louisiana special legislative elections (where the first Republican flip of the cycle could happen in a Dem-held, Trump+13 seat)

New Fine poll shows her tied with Biss - Evanston Now With 23% of voters still undecided.

Scoop – State Sen. Laura Fine's campaign is out with an internal poll by GBAO Strategies that shows her tied with Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss at 21% in #IL09

Kat Abughazaleh is in third at 14%, per the polling memo. The poll was conducted Jan. 26-29.

On top of all the state legislative elections tonight, I also want to draw your attention to the town of Fairfield, CT, which has an election for Town Selectman.

Republican State Senator Tony Hwang is running and if he wins, his Harris+18 seat will be up in a special election!

basically yglesias, jain, jentleson, WelcomePAC donors etc all base their prescriptions for Dems on a statistical model that nobody can replicate, and refuse to acknowledge (a) that uncertainty dwarfs the detectable effect of moderation & (b) that the last year has proved their views wrong!!

State Legislative Election Watch- February 3rd, 2026 Covering all of tonight's special elections and launching our first ratings for Alabama!

The newest edition of the State Legislative Election Watch is out now!

This time around, we’re covering all of tonight’s special elections. Buckle in, there’s a lot of them! Check it out below!
open.substack.com/pub/uncrewed...

In weird candidate filing news out of Oregon, a new Republican candidate has emerged in the open, Republican-held #HD52 (Harris+6.5) east of Portland.

The newest Republican running is Darcy LaPier, who is an ex-model/actress who was married to Jean-Claude Van Damme in the 90s.

Btw, they tested literally every single Republican running for Governor against Klobuchar.

The "best" performance from the GOP? Klobuchar+14.

The Minnesota GOP has a rough 9 months to go

The Klobslide is the median outcome

If Dan Osborn stands any chance at unseating Pete Ricketts in Nebraska this year, then he's going to have to win Sarpy County in suburban Omaha.

He won this Republican-leaning county against Deb Fischer by just under 400 votes, even as Trump won it by 11 points.

Best performing Democrat period:

2008- R+14
2012- R+25
2016- R+12.5
2020- R+8
2024- R+5.5

I used DRA, they have the datasets for 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, & 2024

Mokena:

2008- R+11
2012- R+21
2016- R+18
2020- R+17
2024- R+19

When you're losing these voters? Pack it in man

They're having anti-ICE protests in the Republican suburbs that have stayed stubbornly Republican in the Trump era, it is so over for them

Yes

Senate probably remains even or R+1 by flipping this seat back

House maybe a net gain of 4-5 seats for the Democrats

So, I guess OFFICIAL SLEW RATING CHANGE TIME:

TEXAS #SD09: SAFE R -> TOSS-UP

Do you want to know the funniest part about the Texas #SD09 flip last night? The Republican who lost, Leigh Wambsganss, was the only Republican to file for the November election.

All of her weaknesses that led to her losing, the GOP will still have to deal with in November.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED TEXAS'S #SD09 (Trump+17):

Taylor Rehmet (D)- 57.2%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 42.8%

A monumental flip in the northern suburbs of Fort Worth!

It looks like the Republicans are conceding Texas's #SD09 to the Democrats.

They're conceding a Trump+17 district in an area of Fort Worth that's been favorable to Republicans for decades, just a massive massive loss for them.

We are now up to 20% of precincts + all early vote reporting in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election:

Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.6%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.4%

The Democratic lead continues to grow...

Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well

It's weird, they have a list of precincts and list off those that have reported, but I can't tell where they are because the precinct map on the website has numbered precincts while the list of precincts is the actual name of the location of the precinct

It bumped the margin from D+12.4 to D+12.8