Uncrewed

If Dan Osborn stands any chance at unseating Pete Ricketts in Nebraska this year, then he's going to have to win Sarpy County in suburban Omaha.

He won this Republican-leaning county against Deb Fischer by just under 400 votes, even as Trump won it by 11 points.

Best performing Democrat period:

2008- R+14
2012- R+25
2016- R+12.5
2020- R+8
2024- R+5.5

I used DRA, they have the datasets for 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, & 2024

Mokena:

2008- R+11
2012- R+21
2016- R+18
2020- R+17
2024- R+19

When you're losing these voters? Pack it in man

They're having anti-ICE protests in the Republican suburbs that have stayed stubbornly Republican in the Trump era, it is so over for them

Yes

Senate probably remains even or R+1 by flipping this seat back

House maybe a net gain of 4-5 seats for the Democrats

So, I guess OFFICIAL SLEW RATING CHANGE TIME:

TEXAS #SD09: SAFE R -> TOSS-UP

Do you want to know the funniest part about the Texas #SD09 flip last night? The Republican who lost, Leigh Wambsganss, was the only Republican to file for the November election.

All of her weaknesses that led to her losing, the GOP will still have to deal with in November.

THE DEMOCRATS HAVE FLIPPED TEXAS'S #SD09 (Trump+17):

Taylor Rehmet (D)- 57.2%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 42.8%

A monumental flip in the northern suburbs of Fort Worth!

It looks like the Republicans are conceding Texas's #SD09 to the Democrats.

They're conceding a Trump+17 district in an area of Fort Worth that's been favorable to Republicans for decades, just a massive massive loss for them.

We are now up to 20% of precincts + all early vote reporting in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election:

Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.6%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.4%

The Democratic lead continues to grow...

Okay, looking at the precinct data, Rehmet overall *improved* vs the EV in the precincts that added eday votes and is broadly running ahead of Nov by a lot in those precincts as well

It's weird, they have a list of precincts and list off those that have reported, but I can't tell where they are because the precinct map on the website has numbered precincts while the list of precincts is the actual name of the location of the precinct

It bumped the margin from D+12.4 to D+12.8

It took Tarrant County two hours to count 7 precincts in the #SD09 election.

Could be a long night folks

Next update should be in the next 20 minutes

There are 2006s everywhere for those with eyes to see

Flash back to the first round of voting in November, the early vote made up 55% of the final vote, with Rehmet winning it 44.1-40.1 over Wambsganss.

Election day votes made up the rest of the vote and Rehmet won that 51.7-30.8 over Wambsganss.

We are very much in upset territory in the Texas #SD09 (Trump+17) special election. Early vote just dropped:

Taylor Rehmet (D)- 56.2%
Leigh Wambsganss (R)- 43.8%

Given that the early vote usually makes up a good chunk of the final vote, I think the Dems will win this one.

She's an underrated ball knower. Her underperforming the top of the ticket consistently hides that, but she was praised by Ken Martin after the 2020 election for helping drive up turnout in Minneapolis for Biden

All the candidates are listed here:
candidates.wvsos.gov

UPDATE: West Virginia Democrats are now at 86/100 State House districts contested and 16/19 State Senate districts contested with the filing deadline today.

Those numbers might grow as candidates who filed by mail just have to have their paperwork postmarked by today.
bsky.app/profile/did:...

Don’t have 2016 numbers on hand, but Trump+13 in 2020

R+5-7 is my guess

It's special election tonight in Texas! It's in #SD09 to be precise, a Trump+17 district in the northern Fort Worth area.

Democrat Taylor Rehmet fell short of winning here in November, getting 47% against two Republican opponents. Can he break 50% tonight?

Trump+12 seat and the only Republican to file a 21 year old "fitness entrepreneur." Would want to see the Dem nominee first, but no worse than a toss-up to start.

West Virginia delegate Shawn Fluharty to run for state senate Shawn Fluharty, a delegate from the 3rd district in the West Virginia House of Delegates since 2014, has announced his candidacy for the state senate.Fluharty w

They got an amazing recruit in the State Senate too, getting State Delegate Shawn Fluharty to run in the Trump+39 #SD01. He outran the top of the ticket by 27 points in 2024!
wtov9.com/news/local/w...

I don't know what the West Virginia Democrats are doing, but they are COOKING so far when it comes to getting candidates to run for the State House/Senate.

They're so far contesting 78/100 State House districts (after only contesting 53 in 2024) and 14/19 Senate district (only contested 9 in 2024)