A chart from John Authers ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly earnings—a release that has arguably evolved from a corporate update to a full-blown “macro event”, illustrating how rapidly AI is becoming systemically for markets, companies and the economy.
#economy #ai #markets #nvidia

China’s Deepening Malaise

China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...

How about Capital One $COF? They've cleaned up their balance sheet and exposure quite a bit in the last few years..

..shares +26% YTD

There goes 90+ day credit-card delinquencies. New cycle high.

(via Kev Gordon)

“Where are the revenues”

Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026

The AI build-out is truly staggering.

Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.

📉This report is symptomatic of weakening employment growth with business leaders seeing reduced final demand growth, pervasive uncertainty, higher costs from tariffs & AI-productivity as a rationale to reduce their talent pool via strategic layoffs & lower hiring

⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y

We used to have colourful cars

The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s

Grape Harvest Dates in Beaune/Burgundy, 1659-2018.
Since the early 1980s, the moving 20-year avg of Burgundy grape harvest dates has dropped by 16 days. That is, harvest starts more than half a month earlier than 35 years ago.  #climatechange #globalwarming

U.S. Dollar Break Out 🚨 50-Day moving average just crossed the 100-Day moving average as well 📈✅👀

a graph of US solar generation by month

Official data is in today, and American solar power remained near a record high in August, with generation up 25% compared to last year!

fam is it a good sign that NFLX has zero bounce today ans is back under its 200 day?

Canada's lost decade in a single chart.

“The Effect of Doping on Sprint Performance: An Eyeball RDD Analysis.” Graphic by The New York Times, line & label by me.

Poised for our biggest five-day drop in UBS L/S Quant Momentum index since Feb 2023

These should give little surprise behind goods level payrolls in Q3.

September may look a little better, but I'm on a hold for any optimism within the next 3-5 months for freight.

The S&P 500 index futures tick to four sixes..

The generational low in the cash index in March of 2009 was 666.

🫸 one way that credit spreads are not as eye-wateringly expensive

1. Bad news: spreads near 20yr lows (orange diamonds)

2. But duration also near 20yr lows in many areas

3. Can absorb bigger rise in spread before spread wiped out/before underperf gov bonds (blue diamonds) = margin of safety

Fingers crossed the first jobs to go are for people charting who’s at risk from AI

U.S. Dollar now testing 14-Year Support 🚨 It's now or never

PANTHEON: “.. Households have become more worried again about the risk of losing their jobs. .. the average respondent saw a 23% chance that their spouse will lose their job over the next five years, up from 21% in August and the highest since March ..”

#UMich

There’s a fair amount of money to be made IMO in successfully timing mean-reverting shifts in narratives of relative regional hubris.

If you’re wondering why real incomes are collapsing, here’s one reason:

“.. almost 14% of workers are getting no raises.”

(via MetLife)

The overall solid consumer performance belies a growing divergence in wage growth, wealth, and spending

the stock market isn’t going to anticipate//predict the next “real world” economy recession. it will be the proximate cause

Chart showing goods prices for intermediate demand by production flow, excluding food/energy. The periods are 2018-2019, 2021-2022, 2023-2024, YTD, July, and August.

Tariffs are driving up costs across the supply chain at about half the rate that we saw during the post-pandemic surge in inflation.

Foreign buying has played a bigger role in US financial markets over the years, but domestic players are still way more dominant:

By my estimates, the top ten US AI plays listed on US exchanges have done at least $383 billion in capex over the last year—equivalent to nearly 1.3 percent of gross domestic product—and plan at least $475 billion more in the coming year, helping counterbalance softness elsewhere in the economy:

The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.