With new estimates the unemployment rate has been 4.3% over the past 6m when hiring was averaging 14k per month--the breakeven rate required to keep unemployment stable is probably negative given restrictive immigration policy + an aging pop--no people, no jobs

US GDP growth nowcast from @augurinfinty hits a 1-year high

According to coingecko, the total market cap of NFTs is still c$1.8bn, down only c90% from peak. www.coingecko.com/en/nft/globa...

First time since June 12, 2000 that S&P 500 software & services (GICS 2) is down 20% while $SPY is positive over a three-month stretch.

Brent crude oil > $70 for the first time since September @teconomics

"This Longview Economics chart shows excess global oil supply climbing to multi-decade highs this year."

via John Authers

Miller Lite chart o' the day

DRAM spot prices

The San Francisco office recovery is underway:

GS: Short interest for the median S&P 500 stock ranks in the 88th percentile since 1995

"In December, FMS investors continue to believe that companies are overinvesting as concerns linger about the AI capex boom." - BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Market Minute: Expect November CPI to show 0.3% monthly increase We expect both the top-line and core readings of the consumer price index to rise by 3% rise from a year ago when the data is released Thursday.

Amid the affordability crisis that has soured Americans on the economy the November CPI report will show a 0.3% monthly increase & a 3% advance from one year ago. #Econ #EconSky

Source: The Real Economy Blog

realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...

End of the Monetary Policy Sweet Spot

Global easings are slowing and hikes are creeping back in for 2026. With the disinflation dividend behind us, markets at highs supported by dovish policy face a tougher liquidity environment ahead.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/end-of-the...

Chart of MBA mortgage applications (weekly index) for past 10 years

Existing home market unlocking as mortgage rates fall

EXCLUSIVE: Federal tax prosecutions fell to their lowest level in decades this year, declining more than 27% from the year before as the Trump administration cut the ranks of attorneys and agents who pursue those cases, a Reuters examination has found.

www.reuters.com/world/tax-pr...

World's 50 Most Profitable Companies 🚨 Alphabet $GOOGL Wins 🤑🫡

You’d probably call a “Code Red”, too.

(via MS desk) 👀

Private nonfarm employment growth more than accounted for by firms +500 employees, since May; divergence unseen since 2007... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

They’re definitely shorting the shit out of utilities…

A chart from John Authers ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly earnings—a release that has arguably evolved from a corporate update to a full-blown “macro event”, illustrating how rapidly AI is becoming systemically for markets, companies and the economy.
#economy #ai #markets #nvidia

China’s Deepening Malaise

China’s slowdown is accelerating and yet policymakers remain unconcerned bystanders, suggesting the weakening is less a story of endemic misfortune, but instead of political intent.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/chinas-dee...

How about Capital One $COF? They've cleaned up their balance sheet and exposure quite a bit in the last few years..

..shares +26% YTD

There goes 90+ day credit-card delinquencies. New cycle high.

(via Kev Gordon)

“Where are the revenues”

Semianalysis expects azure revenue to accelerate to 50% YoY by end 2026

The AI build-out is truly staggering.

Taiwanese exports of information & communication products (basically, semiconductors from TSMC) have risen from $10-11bn per month to $27bn in the space of a year. That's over $300bn annualised and roughly a fifth of total US equipment investment.

📉This report is symptomatic of weakening employment growth with business leaders seeing reduced final demand growth, pervasive uncertainty, higher costs from tariffs & AI-productivity as a rationale to reduce their talent pool via strategic layoffs & lower hiring

⛔Year-to-date job cuts +65% y/y

We used to have colourful cars

The movie business changed dramatically starting in the late 1990s

Grape Harvest Dates in Beaune/Burgundy, 1659-2018.
Since the early 1980s, the moving 20-year avg of Burgundy grape harvest dates has dropped by 16 days. That is, harvest starts more than half a month earlier than 35 years ago.  #climatechange #globalwarming

U.S. Dollar Break Out 🚨 50-Day moving average just crossed the 100-Day moving average as well 📈✅👀

a graph of US solar generation by month

Official data is in today, and American solar power remained near a record high in August, with generation up 25% compared to last year!