Affan

More positive than negative. In the next year the business will generate profits equal to 80% of market cap and may exceed market cap by 2027. I think they will buy out the pref shares this year.

#AVAP.L Rangeley down to 12.9% on 9th Sep, they will probably hold off selling more based on their "Long DYODD" post from 10th Sept. At least for now.

AVAP should try and buy back another block of shares from them (now that they have the firepower),should be value accretive for the rest of us.

#AVAP.L new note from CG today, all you need to read from it

They have 6 unencumbered aircraft, that won't be enough but yes I expect them to raise secured finance against them to pay off the more expensive bonds. They really can bring this down to $250m or lower..

Bofa high yield index at 6.45%..

Yes but not indication of what the profit is. Don't think it would have changed. I suspect most of it would be used to buy back debt (maybe get unsecured bonds to c$270m?)

#AVAP.L just announced the completion of the sale of B777 at a material profit and generated material cash as a result. No figures given which is frustrating but we will find out by FY results. More cash to buy back bonds (and maybe some more shares from Rangeley and Co who are the clear sellers).

#AVAP.L unsecured debt outstanding now at $298m, finance costs already significantly lower versus last year. Nice statement out today highlighting the total value of debt repayments over the last 5 years probably setting the mood for bond refi, also highlighting the improved credit rating.

Airbus Faces Steep Challenge to Meet Ambitious Delivery Target Airbus SE will need to hand over close to 100 aircraft each month to customers in the remainder of 2025 — considerably more than at any point so far this year — if the European planemaker wants to ach...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Avation PLC Half Year Results Call This is "Avation PLC Half Year Results Call" by LSEG Studios on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people who love them.

vimeo.com/1060139741

Around 34:50 Jeff mentioned that they are in the process of starting to sell them.. Let's see if they managed to sell any.

Thank you! I noticed your comment on their PAL Holdings stake. From memory, in their Feb interim results presentation they mentioned that they had started the process of selling down their stake. I am not sure how far they got with it. I guess we will only find out with the FY results announcement.

@carcosa61.bsky.social have you read the RNS just now? Is it the same plane that was meant to be leased to JCAS? That means the lease with JCAS is not going ahead and Avation gets to keep the deposit?

#AVAP.L New lease agreement signed for a new ATR 72-600 to be delivered in Nov 25 with SUM Air. I don't think it's news but confirmation of delivery this calendar year is positive. The ATR 72-600 on order and leased to a Japanese airline should arrive sooner, so we should two new ATRs by Nov 25.

but I think we are entering into the closed period now as FY results due in a month etc.

#AVAP.L getting some interest post the AL acquisition announcement. I know Raper and Co have been sellers for a while, interesting to see if another party taking interest although I would quite like the company to buy some more of their own stock at this level before re-fi

Air Lease to be acquired for $65.00 per share in cash (AL:NYSE) Air Lease (AL) said it has agreed to be acquired by a newly formed Dublin-based holding company backed by Sumitomo Corporation (SSUMY), SMBC Aviation Capital, and investment vehicles tied to Apollo-ma...

More M&A in the sector. Giant $AL getting acquired

seekingalpha.com/news/4490973...

Braathens Airline to phase out Airbus fleet, focus on ATR72-600 for ACMI growth Braathens Airline has announced a strategic shift in its fleet plan, deciding to gradually retire its Airbus aircraft by 2027 and focus exclusively on the

More evidence of the increasing popularity of the turboprops specifically ATR 72-600.

www.aviation24.be/airlines/bra...

#RE. and #RE.B are ones I haven't spoken much about but I have been building a larger holding of late. I do plan to write more, will do alongside HY results due late Sept.

DYOR

#AVAP.L BOFA high yield index now at 6.58% (lowest since April 2022). Good timing for bonds refinance perhaps. Avation currently pays 8.25% in cash/9% PIK. 100bps lower would make a c$3m p.a. difference. Finance costs on bonds already lower by $2.5m p.a. vs last year due to repurchases.

End of quarter would suggest end Sept/early Oct. That aligns with the announcement of FY25 results so maybe around then if not before (with the announcement of completion of the B777 sale?)

#AVAP.L Bonds trading at 99.75c on the dollar today almost at par. What does that tell you?

Anywhere between 1800p to 2000p. It is still ridiculously cheap..

Then if they buyback more shares post refinancing then its further value accretive. This should at least be 250p but in a M&A scenario could even be 300p+. Lets see..

Hard to put a target price but I think of it like this. NAV c275p (incl FX movement) then they say market value of planes greater than book by $82m, that adds another 90pps so we are at 360p. This is before refinancing. I think the value of ATR options increases further over time.

This is before taking into account the huge discount to NAV and off balance sheet value (market value of the fleet vs book value). I think we are entering a very exciting period for the stock and the company but market is sleeping. I don't see how this is not over 200p (minimum) by year end.

#AVAP.L Tick-tock. The bonds can be re-financed from 1st Nov, I expect an announcement in Sept. The company should save anywhere between $7m to $10m in finance costs going forward vs last year. Even applying a multiple of 5, logically that should result in a $35m to $50m uplift in market cap.

#AEP.L 1200p now, was 600p last September. The fundamnetals then were the same vs what they are now. Only difference is market starting to believe it now.

Hold on to your deep value quality stocks.

I think in total the stock should yield over 5% so we shall see but buybacks should nicely support the share price here.

happen when the interest of mgmt and shareholders is aligned. Still too cheap this and we should see a nice steady rise from here and the buyback should support this.

Wasn't interested in extracting value for shareholders from this cash cow they were sitting on
I couldn't really find any other flaw. The real plot twist came when Marcus joined the board following his mother's death and more so when he became CEO earlier this year. Just goes to show what can