Marco Sinai, Ph.D.

It's one of those inflection moments, when it can go either way, either its a wall of worry moment or someone knows something and is distributing. Who knows? Noone really knows, this is a low conviction moment, when uncertainty needs to be embraced, bets need to be pared...

Market psychology is less bullish, there is definitely some uneasiness out there, perhaps repo/ cockroaches rumors or AI skepticism, put/call ratios are higher than usual...

...but if the 50 dma holds, there could be new highs and topping 7k before year end! I guess we'll know next week, and Nvidia earnings will be key and then its option expiration next Friday and some fed speeches to give clues about December rate cuts.

Interesting moment in the markets...S&P is a couple % from all time highs after bouncing off the 50dma, same for the miners...technically the bull market is alive and well but there is a clear loss of momentum and markets feel heavy. If the 50dma gives, S&P is looking at 4200, that's a 10% hit!

Perhaps, I guess what makes me allergic to Trump is his malignant narcissism. Didn't get that from Reagan. I can work with run of the mill narcissists cause I can tap into the suffering beneath the narcissism. Can't do malignant narcissists, the sadism doesn't agree with me.

The man is utterly revolting to me and knowing that millions of Americans, my neighbours, actually voted for him and would vote for such a sociopath again, fills me with absolute dread!

Not too mention last week's scene at the said White House announcing what could be a real achievement, lowering the cost of GLP1 or how he calls it "the fat drug". He completely ignored when someone fainted during the ceremony, worst, Trump seemed visibly pissed that someone dared to ruin the show!

The entitlement that led him to literally destroy the White House, I mean who does that?

Aside from the attacks on the constitution, the corruption, grift and scandals Trump is racking up, its the small things that drive me insane.

In the case of Trump, his policies are pretty much everything I disagree with but for a couple of notable exceptions. That in itself would be enough to hate the guy, but the cheery on top has to do with his character, an immature, petulant manchild with sociopathic megalomania.

Am I wrong on Trump too 40 years later? Let's see,
I can make the difference between someone's character and their policies. In the case of Reagan, he was by all accounts a decent man who was peddling policies, both foreign and domestic, that at the time, I didn't agree with...

The fact is that many of the policies I was dead against then have contributed to 30 years of peace and prosperity. That's not nothing, revolutionaries can't claim even a fraction of that.

When I was in my 20s and Reagan was POTUS I hated his guts as much as I hate Trump's guts today. I've learnt a lot since then, including that I was wrong about Reagan.

most if not all dimensions are flashing danger, fear becomes intense, reasonable thinking shuts down and self preservation kicks in. Behaviourally thus translates into freezing. You do nothing when you shd be selling...you'll sell later, when it's time to buy.

...you're flying blind, you have no map or worst your map is leading you astray.

On a day like today when the miners gap down and the 50dma doesn't hold, panic starts to set in...

Last but not least, Control. The more control one perceives over a situation the less emotion will tend to be experienced and vice-versa. If you bought in the last month and are now underwater, it may come as a shock that your narrative is not working as planned, your model is not working...

And if the peso is toast, the 20 b MAGA swap line is also toast, and Trump will taste some egg on toast...explain that to you MAGA base, that you cut Medicare for Americans but are willing to through away 20B for Argentina. LOL

Big election today in Argentina, flying under the radar because of Trump sucking all the attention oxygen in Asia.

It big because if Millei's party doesn't get more than 34% of parliament, he cannot veto legislation that will undo all his reforms so dar, and if that happens, the peso is toast.

YouTube video by Tod Maffin When the Ride Breaks: Tariffs, Theatre, and Trust

Love Tod's wisdom! Trump's mistake with Canada is the same as Putin's misreading of Ukraine's will for self determination.

Canadians see Trump's nakedness and are so bored of it!

youtu.be/bYgfahXjVUY?...

#USPOL #USA #us #uspoli #poli #politics #cdnpoli #canada #MidasMighty #america #Trump #TRUMP #MAGA #FuckTrump #fuckmaga #Anti-Fascist #antifa #AntiTrump #AntiMAGA #tuckfrump #coup #coupdetat #chaos #fascistfelon #authoritarians #stopthecoup #ConstitutionalCrisis #WokeAF #FightOligarchy #TrumPedo

#USPOL #USA #us #uspoli #poli #politics #cdnpoli #canada #MidasMighty #america #Politics-matter #PoliticsNation #Ethics #SocialJustice #bcpoli #abpoli #onpoli #topoli #Klimapolitik #ClimateActionNow #ClimateChange #Climate #Ecosocialism #Nature #BCClimateAction #capitalism #FalseConsciousness

It’s Sunday morning, so remember…

Did Ford see this all along? Is Trump's anger so predictable that he can be so easily manipulated?

Doug Ford airs a primetime ad quoting Reagan opposition to tariffs. Trump gets pissed, breaks off trade talks and then imposes an extra 10% tariff accusing Canada of wanting to influence the upcoming Supreme Court decision.
Does Trump understand that his behaviour is undermining his own legal case?

Consequences: the higher the consequences the more intense the fear. If you're playing with disposable money, losing it might not be a big deal, but if you mortgaged your home to play the market, the consequences of losing it are immense and fear will be extreme

The more psychologically invested in a trade the less likely you have an exit strategy if things go against you. If gold is destined to go to the moon and you're convinced of this, you're likely in for the long term and you don't need an exit strategy for small or medium downturns, so you do nothing

Relevance: this dimension is intimately tied to identity, how married are we to an object, an idea, or a trade. Dogma is not conducive to succesful trading. This dimension actually prevents you from seeing things clearly because surprises are dismissed.

Let's review the 4 dimensions of appraisal:
Normativeness. Every investor has an expectation of how a trade will work out, if it goes the other way the question is asked: is this normal? The more abnormal it is judged to be, the more fear will be experienced by the trader/investor.

The first smackdown gets rid of the leveraged participants who have no choice to meet the margin calls...but how does the bull shakes off the rest of the weak hands? By instilling fear in their hearts.

People who bought the momentum in the last month saw their gains evaporate in a couple of days. They are psychologically trapped. The current action is likely interpreted as the pause before another rally, because the alternative is too painful. So you hold or even add at these levels...