@dkellercmt.bsky.social
Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only.
Defensive sectors are leading in February, the VIX is holding above 20, and my short-term trend model turned bearish again. In today’s CHART THIS mailbag, I cover earnings strategy (MAR), Bitcoin correlation, and trading discipline.
youtu.be/sJDwa7R6zFQ
Risk-off day today. Apple -5%, Cisco -12%, VIX back above 20, and defensive sectors leading. I break down S&P support levels, breadth deterioration, and what would confirm a deeper pullback. Full recap here: youtu.be/X4jM2fi0dY0
12.02.2026 22:15 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
U.S. indices are stuck in the mud, but I’m seeing a massive move into Staples and Energy. 📊 I'm breaking down the Shooting Star candle in Apple, the breakdown in Alphabet, and why international markets are decisively outperforming the S&P 500 right now. 🏠🌍
Full update here → youtu.be/NptcK-RA_eE
Markets moved higher Monday, but leadership remains selective. In today’s CHART THIS, Dave Keller breaks down tech strength, sector rotation, commodities, crypto, and why the S&P 500 is still stuck below 7000.
youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
$AMZN is holding steady after the gap frenzy last week. A rally back to the 200-day moving average would make sense for the bulls and the bears, but that feels more like a "trade" to me. The real question is what happens after the 200-day is reached?
10.02.2026 18:05 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Can't help but notice $COIN is bouncing off major league support around $145, lining up well with the Sep '24 and Mar '25 lows. Previous lows have been confirmed with a bullish crossover from weekly PPO. But dang that looks tempting.....
10.02.2026 17:07 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
#Bitcoin is a tough chart right about now. Potential V-bottom, but the momentum remains incredibly weak. Has lost over 50% of its value since Oct 2025 peak, but the chart remains in a primary downtrend of lower highs and lower lows.
I'm inclined to patiently wait for signs of accumulation. You?
Markets moved higher Monday, but the real story was rotation. Tech rebounded, gold and silver surged, and airlines quietly broke out.
On today’s CHART THIS, I break down $SPX near 7000, $NVDA at resistance, and why select airlines are improving.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/AH6pHK-vstU
Friday’s rally forces an important question: dead cat bounce or real recovery?
Tech surged, breadth flipped positive, volatility dropped, and Bitcoin reversed sharply. The real signal will come from follow-through next week.
Full Chart This episode here:
youtu.be/jCpQd-t5TNg
Bringing back my “Choose Your Own Adventure” format—this time on the S&P 500.
I lay out 4 realistic paths for the next 6–8 weeks (from ~7400 upside to ~6200–6300 downside). The point isn’t prediction—it’s preparation.
Watch the vid and then vote on your fav!
youtu.be/9XURezUNqeE
Growth continued to struggle as semiconductors weakened and AMD broke down hard. But beneath the surface, breadth pushed to new highs and value sectors led again. A market of rotation, not collapse.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/W7sWAgZqlww
S&P 500 prints a bearish engulfing/outside day near 7,000 as growth weakens (MSFT, META gap-and-fail, AVGO near 320). Value/defense led: energy, materials, staples. VIX keeps teasing 20. youtu.be/U_mg7Iam30s
03.02.2026 22:09 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
S&P 500 up to start the week but still below 7,000. Commodities broke down, the dollar reversed higher, and crypto is testing major support. Also watching NVDA ~175 and a Hindenburg Omen confirmation window.
CHART THIS -> youtu.be/NV3PSrrh2JE
Earnings gaps, market breadth, and rotation in early 2026. Great conversation with John Kolovos on why zooming out matters, how to read breakaway gaps, and what gold, small caps, and the dollar are signaling now.
31.01.2026 14:04 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Thanks Grayson Roze for a great conversation covering the top ten charts to watch in February. From slow and steady gainers like $RTX and $WMT, to emerging value leaders like $STLD, we covered lots of ground! Still can't believe you picked a COVID era name... 📈
www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CKw...
A wild V-shaped session today near 7,000. Early weakness tied to AI and $MSFT earnings gave way to aggressive buying, but market breadth and volatility are flashing mixed signals.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS → youtu.be/Hg0bwEvy6lI
How close is the Fed really to cutting again? Simeon Hyman (ProShares) breaks down rates, the dollar, gold, crypto, and why this market looks nothing like 1999. A thoughtful macro conversation for 2026.
youtu.be/-8iTWZ5zKTc
The S&P briefly cleared 7000 on Fed Day, but couldn’t hold it. Earnings are driving big moves as breadth weakens and commodities continue to lead.
Full chart breakdown here:
youtu.be/MK60NIFdT-c
Markets are holding firm near SPX 7000 as Fed week begins. Silver continues to surge, the dollar weakens, and leadership keeps rotating.
My full breakdown on today’s CHART THIS:
youtu.be/bQ66oP0BqBs
A sideways market, low volatility, and lots of great viewer questions.
From analyzing indexes vs stocks to Starbucks, Palantir, and sector leadership — this week’s mailbag covers it all.
CHART THIS → youtu.be/b6MHb6GaZdU
“Invest well over the long term—first survive the short term.”
Ted Hicks joins me to talk evidence-based decision-making, managing risk through different market regimes, and why a process matters more than predictions.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n62...
A choppy session, but markets held important support levels. Earnings reactions, fading volatility, and early leadership signals are all in focus.
CHART THIS →
youtu.be/iDWRntOELck
Indexes look fine, but momentum tells a different story.
Joe Rabil explains how ADX, relative strength, and bottom-up analysis help identify emerging leaders early in 2026.
Full episode: www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBvR...
Markets snapped back today after yesterday’s selloff. Volatility eased, small caps led, and sector rotation stayed very much in focus.
Full breakdown on CHART THIS:
youtu.be/pIswkAUm4Go
Markets sold off hard today as volatility returned and money rotated into gold and silver.
Here’s how I’m framing this pullback and the key levels I’m watching on CHART THIS → youtu.be/rFjc0fGz8Nk
Wrapping up the week with a record-high defense of 6900! 📈 I’m diving into the Friday Mailbag to answer your questions on "overbought" PPO levels, how to beat the S&P 500 as an individual, and the best way to manage multiple family portfolios. 🏠📊
Full update here → youtu.be/qmvpxDXZyeU
Small caps and defensive sectors led the way today while big tech took a breather. I’m diving into the "Mindful Investor" approach to managing overbought charts like Alphabet, and why "When in doubt, zoom out" is the best advice for the Target breakout. 📊🏠
CHART THIS → youtu.be/TiD4DVoYJJ0
New episode! Jason Shapiro (Unknown Market Wizards) on why “being right” doesn’t matter—risk/reward does. We dig into journaling, discipline, and how positioning (not price) reveals crowded trades. youtu.be/qGyd_Ot5PvQ
15.01.2026 19:21 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A "Risk-Off" vibe hit the big Tech names today, but the broader market breadth is still hanging in there. I'm breaking down the confirmed breakdown in Microsoft, the "potential" top in Dell, and why I’m liking defensive charts like PM and Starbucks. 📊☕️
Full update here → youtu.be/0qvhrL58t4E
Bitcoin is officially on the move! 🚀 It cleared my $94k resistance today even as the stock market faced some late-day volatility. I’m diving into the Financials breakdown, the defensive rotation into Staples, and why $GOOGL is the only Mag 7 chart I love. 📊
Full update here → youtu.be/vkQVfJISQUE
