Shaun Ratcliff

The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today

Thanks Nick, appreciated!

The reporting on this poll can be found here:
t.co/ZREStzl9g7

These results indicate that minor parties generally & One Nation in particular do best when voters believe the major parties do not offer real solutions to their problems, and the recent rise of One Nation can be seen as a symptom of stress and disillusionment in the electorate.

A similar pattern is evident with younger voters. Gen-Z voters who are financially stressed are also abandoning the major parties. However, in this case more likely to shift to the Greens rather than One Nation.

Our work finds that in particular, it is older voters who are suffering high levels of financial stress and who do not own their own home who are most likely to intend to vote for One Nation

This shift in support to One Nation from the Coalition and other parties has occurred across the electorate, but is most pronounced among older the voters, and Gen-X men in particular

The latest AFR/ RedBridge/ Accent Research poll is now out. Based on a sample nearly 5,000 Australian voters collected over November, shows that consistent with our previous poll, 18% of voters would give One Nation their first preference if an election were held today

The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.

The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election

Both inferences are likely correct. If they got anywhere near that share of the vote, it would get messy in a few places, and One Nation would probably win at least a couple of HoR seats

One Nation also leads as the best party to handle immigration

Read more about the results here tinyurl.com/3tac6c3m

The Labor primary is up 4 points, at 38%, and it leads on 2pp at 56%

The other major beneficiary of the Coalition collapse is One Nation, which has seen its primary vote triple to 18% since the election.

In this survey of 1,011 Australian voters (collected 7-13 Nov), Labor continues to dominate: leading on the two-party preferred vote, the preferred prime minister, and as the best party to deal with four of the six policy areas we asked about.

The November AFR/RedBridge/Accent Research poll is out.

The big story is the ongoing decline of the Coalition primary vote, which is down 5 points since Oct, to 24%, 8 points lower than the May election

Possibly reflecting the geographic distribution of those who participated, but the WA Liberals are far too low considering how they’ve managed to trash the public perception of the party in a state where they long had a major advantage

The full report can be found here

mq.edu.au/__data/asset...

Most Australians believe there is a housing crisis

Half say home ownership is possible if people work hard and save money

Just 22 per cent agree rising house prices are a good thing.

Very few voters (16 per cent) are satisfied with the governments’ performance on housing.

The 1st publication from the 2025 Cooperative Election survey was launched yesterday

prepared by the Macquarie Housing & Urban Research Centre, this report explores perceptions of housing affordability and perceived solutions

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Join us on Wednesday for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie Uni where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by
Accent Research showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics in Australia

Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election? With Labor re-elected with a thumping majority, voters at the conservative end of the Coalition are drifting away, spurred by anxieties about immigration.

Shaun Wilson in the @theconversation.com using data from
Accent Research surveys to answer the question "Why has support for One Nation surged since the 2025 federal election?"

theconversation.com/why-has-supp...

Join us for a free webinar hosted by Macquarie University where researchers will present the fascinating insights they have drawn from data collected by Accent Research at the 2025 federal election showing how voters' demographics, backgrounds and economic interests shape housing politics

Housing and the 2025 Federal Election: Between Crisis and Inertia Join our free webinar for key insights into housing and politics—ideal for researchers, students, and policymakers tackling Australia's housing crisis.

How did #Housing shape the 2025 #auspol Election? Come to our free webinar.

We analyse new data to see how generation, tenure and voting shape housing politics

With @emmabaker.bsky.social @shaunratcliff.bsky.social and @everybodyshome.bsky.social Maiy Azize

events.humanitix.com/webinar-on-h...

Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...

What happened at the 2025 election? When did the race turn in Labor's favour, and what do the results mean for Australian politics in the future?

Recently, I had the pleasure of joining Marija Taflaga and @markgkenny.bsky.social to answers these questions, and more

ausi.anu.edu.au/news/democra...

Democracy Sausage Episode: The pendulum swing The numbers are in. Pollster Shaun Ratcliff joins Democracy Sausage to dissect the latest election data and what it means for the future of #auspol.What do the numbers tell us about when the shift to ...

New ep of #DemocracySausage is out! 🎙️
@shaunratcliff.bsky.social joins @markgkenny.bsky.social & @marijataflaga.bsky.social to unpack the latest election numbers and what they reveal about the state of our democracy.

Don’t miss this one! #auspol 🎧 #AUListen bit.ly/4kwNcNQ.

Hi Ben. We asked a few questions about Trump. We also had an open ended questions requiring voters to list the three issues most influencing their vote, and what shifted their opinions on parties and leaders. Trump was only mentioned sporadically.

I’ve been describing Trump as background radiation when talking about his impact on our election. There was clearly an influence, but it wasn’t a first order effect

possibly. a lot of firms were also using 2022 vote in their weights, though. including YG.

vote recall is error prone, though; and gets worse over time. you want to be very careful using it for weights and quotas

If you're looking for something different in your election coverage tonight, join Simon Welsh and me on SBS

voting on election day? rookie mistake.