Kathryn Harrison

Last 6 mins, from 20:30 on.

"William Shakespeare, 400 years ago." 👏

Not quite. The MInister's previous announcement might have been consistent with keeping BC's act and revising the targets to match the feds'. Today's fed announcement puts BC's approach (ZEV mandate rather than tailpipe std) out of line with the feds.

Bets on how soon we get an announcement that BC ZEV Act will be repealed? I'm thinking by noon today.

Anyone found a document that gives more detail on the proposed tailpipe standard year by year and how that compares to what would be accomplished over time by the EVAS?

British Columbians will pay to electrify North Coast mining, LNG projects | The Narwhal Energy minister’s order could exempt North Coast transmission line customers from paying millions

More subsidies for fossil fuels, this one paid by BC Hydro customers. And because these contracts signed by governments and public agencies are not made public, they also undermine democratic accountability. #LNG
thenarwhal.ca/bc-public-to...

A regime change in Venezuela could have grim consequences for Canada’s oil sector Canada and Venezuela compete in the same heavy-oil regional and global markets, so shifts in supply from Canada to Venezuela would widely reverberate across the Canadian economy.

Le Billon: "For Alberta and Canada ... the lesson is clear: economic diversification is no longer optional; it’s an urgent necessity. Betting on sustained high oil prices has always been risky; betting on them in a world of messy energy transition is increasingly untenable." tinyurl.com/337tvep7

Happy New Year, before and after.

Is Trans Mountain’s Profitability an Accounting Illusion? | The Tyee How the finances of Canada’s government-owned pipeline may look better than they are.

The claim of profits rests on an accounting trick that ignores Trans Mountain's massive debt payments.
Great reporting by @zoeyunker.bsky.social via @thetyee.ca thetyee.ca/Analysis/202...

Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵

Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...

And -- welcome! Much less trolling abuse here and, in my experience, less intentional misinformation.

I checked who I followed on twitter were here. You can also search for "starter packs," that allow you to either add all or go through a list to select. I used a bunch of climate-related ones but recall the names I'm afraid, other than climate Kathryns (we are surprisingly many with Kate, Kathy...!)

There's a lot more going on in the US to depress EV production than loss of incentives. And that is a challenge for sure for Canada given integration (to date) of N Am auto mftg.

I would expect competition to undermine them all just jacking up prices if enough supply. In theory the federal EV Std incentivizes mftrs to price EVs to sell, increasing price of luxury cars as needed. In practice govts seem reluctant to enforce. In the meantime no subsidies is impacting sales.

There's so much more that can be done to close the gap to 2030, 2035 targets short of the "at all costs" standard implied by the Report: restore incentives for heat pumps, EVs; strengthen the industrial pricing *consistently* across provinces; don't makes things worse (more oil/gas, weaker EV std).

The most troubling thing about the 2025 Progress Report on Canada's climate plan is that the govt is effectively substituting a target 25 yrs off for a commitment, or even efforts beyond those underway, to meet the 2030 and 2035 targets. Pretend targets were the norm for 25 yrs; it didn't go well.

The argument may be convenient, but that's not how the Paris Agreement works. We are responsible for our territorial emissions (i.e., those extraction emissions) and we made an international commitment in adopting those targets.

In several places the report rationalizes Canada's GHGs to product exported oil and gas. It seems to imply that as long as we commit to reduce GHG intensity (MOU's lofty goal is to beat other heavy crudes by 2050) it doesn't matter how much we produce or what the resulting emissions are in Canada.

NZEE 2b.2 is key. If we're not on track what additional measures could be taken to increase the odds of meeting the target? P 109 finally provides an answer. By setting a false standard to meet 2030 and 2035 targets "at all costs" the report basically says "nothing more we can do." Focus on 2050.

It will be important to dig into assumptions embedded in these scenarios (I have not). Is the C price >2020 $170 or $130/t as in MOU? Delayed CH4 phase 2 to 2035? Prob no change to ZEV Act under review. And what assumptions about oil and gas production given prioritization of new pipelines and LNG?

Key figure on p 10. Based on existing policies it's projected Canada will see a 21% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030 (p 21), so ~halfway to our target. That's much less optimistic than the 2023 report. Still it's a big deal we've finally bent the curve, just not enough.

Here's what the NZEE Act mandates for progress reports. That stuff's all in there, but one must dig in. Wrt 2a, the Minister's statement doesn't even mention the 2030 and 2035 targets, only the government's commitment to net zero in 2050.

The 250 pp report is definitely posted. There is reference in there to an complementary modelling report, with all the details of what's assumed in the scenarios wrt policy implementation. Maybe that's not out yet? I haven't checked.

Maybe, but there were so many climate wonks watching for this report -- there's a deadline in the statute after all -- that we were gonna notice. So I still think plausible there's a screwup. It's true that the report isn't highlighting the bad news, but that's no surprise.

Canada's Net Zero Emissions Accountability Act requires that the Minister establish a 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan and publish progress reports in 2023, 2025 and 2027. (There are also req's >2030.) The 2025 report is now posted on ECCC's website. What's it say? 🧵
www.canada.ca/content/dam/...

Accidentally posted a day early?

Maybe it goes first to Parliament?

Maybe ECCC's media release page isn't updated?

Serious question: did Environment and Climate Change Canada just release a 250+ pg legally-mandated report on Canada's progress toward its climate targets without a media release? I don't see one, or any news stories. Found report 4 levels down on ECCC's website.
www.canada.ca/content/dam/...

Found one on eBay!

Thanks!