Hunter Marston

Opinion | Trump has a strongman’s contempt for international law The president’s indifference to domestic legal constraints is reflected in his actions outside the U.S.

Trump has imposed sanctions on 8 ICC judges and 3 prosecutors. “The sanctioned ICC staff,” Reuters noted, “now sit on the U.S. Treasury Department’s Specially Designated Nationals list, alongside suspected al Qaeda terrorists, Mexican drug traffickers and North Korean arms dealers.” wapo.st/3MsWi3c

It’s a loyalty test. It’s always a loyalty test. And every time Republicans feign ignorance or hem and haw, it gives him the green light to go even further.

Friday nights are a little different these days.

New U.S. envoy to Vietnam will inherit $144B trade standoff - UPI.com U.S. officials say tariffs are needed to prevent Vietnam from becoming a backdoor for Chinese manufacturing, but in Hanoi, they're seen as punishment.

"Marston said he believes this single-minded attention to the trade dispute risks eroding trust [and] upending the extraordinary progress in bilateral relations which brought the United States and Vietnam to the level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership [in 2023]." www.upi.com/Top_News/Wor...

Opinion | The Bots Are Plotting a Revolution, and It’s All Very Cringe

"A.I. social media ought to be thought of more as a form of science fiction and storytelling rather than as a demonstration of collective planning and coordination by intelligent parties. We need to be serious about separating the fiction from the software." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/03/o...

“The Vietnamese are going to be confused by the Trump administration, which has downplayed human rights and democracy promotion, but at the same time been willing to violate the sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like," according to Zach Abuza.

An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a possible American war An internal document reveals Vietnam's military is preparing for a possible American war of aggression, viewing the U.S. as a "belligerent" power.

This subheading I think gets it exactly right re: #Vietnam's preternatural mistrust of US strategic intentions: "Trump’s second administration softens some concerns, but raises more" www.seattletimes.com/nation-world...

Senators push $70 billion funding deal to support Trump's critical minerals push, FT reports Senators will introduce legislation on Wednesday to reauthorize funding for the United States Export-Import Bank for the next decade, as lawmakers try to inject an extra $70 billion into the agency to...

www.reuters.com/world/us/sen...

Seems more relevant than ever

The Predatory Hegemon Ever since Donald Trump first became U.S. president, in 2017, commentators have searched for an adequate label to describe his approach to U.S. foreign relations. Writing in these pages, the political...

“The Trump administration appears to believe it can prey on other states forever, and that doing so will make the United States even stronger,” writes @stephenwalt.bsky.social. But “predatory hegemony contains the seeds of its own destruction.”

Opinion | Asian countries hedge against China — and America Unpredictable superpowers lead smaller countries to lean on each other for economic growth.

"No serious country is trying to wall itself off from American trade or investment. But they are preparing for a world in which access to the U.S. market can no longer be taken for granted—and in which Washington’s rules, once predictable, can change abruptly." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Govt 'ready to act' as Asean mediator Thailand is ready to act as a mediator to help restore relations between Asean and Myanmar, Foreign Affairs Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said after a meeting with the National Security Council (NSC)...

Rather than mediate between the junta and ASEAN, the more pressing issue is for someone with FM Sihasak's power & influence to bring the #Myanmar military to the negotiating table with resistance groups & popularly elected leaders from the 2020 election: www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/gen...

9DASHLINE — Europe's dependency on critical minerals: How China keeps EU industry on a tight leash Written by Kristofers Krumins. In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports, exposed to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitica...

"In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure" www.9dashline.com/article/euro... | by Kristofers Krumins

Trump announces long-awaited trade deal with India The U.S. will lower its duty on India from 25 percent to 18 percent as part of the agreement, the president said in a social media post.

www.politico.com/news/2026/02...

Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Government in Exile Teeters on Irrelevance

I've never been a fan of the term "shadow government," but after 5 years it's difficult to say the NUG is anything but a govt in the shadows. Despite the #Myanmar military's lack of territorial control & the farcical nature of elections it has more guns & resources: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/w...

Era of Strongman Diplomacy: Lam’s Ascent Reshapes US–Vietnam Ties In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength.

"In an era of strongman diplomacy, To Lam’s Vietnam is not tilting toward Washington or Beijing. It is positioning itself to bargain with both — from a position of consolidated strength." www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/era-of-stron...

Opinion | Why Southeast Asia should not fear Trump’s disruption Instead of joining Trump’s neocolonial ‘Board of Peace’, Southeast Asian leaders should seize the chance to help rebuild a global order that is just and equitable.

"The rupture should....present an opportunity for Southeast Asia and the majority world to rewrite the global order in a different way; one that, at minimum, disrupts the manipulative trajectory of the old order." Great piece by Elina Noor: www.scmp.com/opinion/worl...

International partners like the US, EU & Australia who supported an end to military rule & return to democracy put far too much stock in ASEAN's ability to resolve Myanmar's crisis (or were just unwilling to admit they weren't willing to do anything themselves). Myanmar's people deserve better.

ASEAN to stick to Myanmar peace plan despite its failure to stop deadly civil war Thailand’s top diplomat says that a 5-year-old plan by Southeast Asian leaders to end Myanmar’s civil war has failed but could still help restore peace.

ASEAN's consensus-based approach is a major issue. It wasn't easy to get consensus in the 1st place. Virtually impossible to do so again. The 5PC was actually good on paper (ceasefire + talks). Problem was #Myanmar's military never intended to implement what it agreed to. apnews.com/article/myan...

One challenge is ASEAN's consensus-based mode of operating. It wasn't easy to get consensus in the 1st place. It will be virtually impossible to do so again. The 2nd issue is that the 5PC was good on paper. The problem was one party (Myanmar's military) never intended to implement what it agreed to.

Indonesia’s One Million Soldiers Questions When journalists or policy experts fretfully discuss arms racing and military buildups in the Indo-Pacific, they tend to focus on Northeast Asian

"Indonesia’s plan to create 750 new territorial infantry battalions rests on an unclear threat perception, offers limited strategic value in a modern conflict, and diverts scarce resources from essential modernization in the air, maritime, space, and cyber domains." warontherocks.com/2026/01/indo...

Iranian ships deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta Iranian ships falsifying their journeys deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta, circumventing sanctions in both countries.

"The shift toward Iranian supplies underscores a broader realignment in relations between Iran and Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw." Great deep dive on #Iran's jet fuel shipments to #Myanmar's military @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...

Since we published this, Pam Bondi's X account has started posting mugshots of Minnesotans arrested for impeding ICE/CBP. Sharing a defendant's photo publicly in this way is forbidden under DOJ rules

Iranian ships deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta Iranian ships falsifying their journeys deliver jet fuel, urea to Myanmar junta, circumventing sanctions in both countries.

One of the drawbacks of the US' expanding use of sanctions over the past two decades is that the more you rely on sanctions as a policy tool, the more you unite misfits & rogues to band together to evade sanctions by selling & buying amongst each other. Case in point: www.reuters.com/graphics/IRA...

Opinion | This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy

"A neoroyalist world is not inevitable. Countries—including America’s closest partners—now need to offer a coherent alternative, mobilizing their own sizable collective resources to counter Mr. Trump and support a system based on fair rules and predictable diplomacy." www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...

Military Elections Will Not Resolve Myanmar’s Deeper Problems Dr. Hunter Marston analyzes Myanmar's election process and post-election scenarios.

#Myanmar’s junta just concluded the third phase of its deeply unfair and unrepresentative elections, manufactured to ensure the military’s continued political control. I wrote about the sham elections for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org’s Ballot Box series here: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

Great context on Zhang Youxia’s arrest by @tanganzhu.bsky.social: open.substack.com/pub/chinadre...

US judge extends deportation protections for migrants from Myanmar A federal judge ordered President Donald Trump's administration on Friday to delay its termination of the "Temporary Protected Status," or TPS, for Myanmar while a lawsuit challenging the termination ...

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

two images of an arrest, one digitally altered by the White House to make it look like the arrestee is crying

This is the first example I’ve seen of an American government using AI to meaningfully misrepresent actual events with the intent to deceive the public. We are at Stalinesque levels of propaganda.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/past-the-b...

To Lam pledges more reforms as he wins new term as Vietnam's leader Vietnam's top leader To Lam was unanimously reappointed as head of the ruling Communist Party for the next five years by its central committee, as he pledged reforms to turbocharge growth in the expor...

www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...