Wen-Ti Sung

European leaders rush to US to help Ukraine avoid 'capitulation’ The heads of state hope to stop Trump from threatening long-term European security, writes James Landale.

US used to rally allies to deter China together. Like Antony Blinken used to say, they "approached China from a position of strength (in numbers)".

Now Europeans rush to accompany Zellensky as he meets Trump, also to help him "approach Trump from a position of strength"

www.bbc.com/news/article...

Publication Day for Ghost Nation is July 17 - now only 45 days away.

Pre-order today and be among the first to read Taiwan's story, as told by many of the people who have shaped this inspiring and vitally important country.

www.panmacmillan.com/authors/chri...

This goes to show that as is usual for the Chinese strategic tradition, there is no use for military diplomacy when the much grander strategic foundation between the US and China is being actively redefined. /7

Sending relatively lower-level Chinese officials (instead of the Defense Minister):

- lowers the temperature without softening per se, and it

- disables the US from attempting negotiations across policy domains, defense and trade. --US DefSec vs Chinese bureau level officials? What's the point? /6

3. And nor does Beijing want to allow opportunity for US to use tariff negotiations to extract meaningful concessions from China on regional security matters.

So when stuck in a land of no good options, perhaps the path of least resistance is to simply #PlayDead and lower the stakes. /5

1. China can’t soften down now, not when US is publicly demanding it.

2. But tough security posturing might sour the mood with the US, and affect tariff negotiations. /4

The cloud of the tariff war negotiations looms over SLD.

As the premier Asian security forum, SLD is usually when Chinese Defense Ministers (who are all career soldiers) project toughness and draws their redlines. /3

Two explanations come to mind, one international and one domestic.

Internationally, there is not much role for military diplomacy to play when strategic foundation is being actively redefined. /2

Big news re Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: For the first time since 2019, Chinese Defense Minister will not be attending.

China is allowing SLD25 to become US DefSec Pete Hegeseth’s one-man show, and it'll be a missed opportunity for US-China to stabilize ties amid uncertainty.

Why? /1

YouTube video by Taiwan Talks Tokyo Walks Tightrope between Washington and Beijing | Taiwan Talks EP621

Pleasure to do a show with my esteemed colleague and friend, Charles Wu, to discuss #Japan’s balancing act between Beijing and Washington, starting with Japanese PM Ishiba’s recent Southeast Asian charm offensive.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAsM...

WELKER: Your secretary of state says everyone who's here, citizens and non-citizens, deserve due process. Do you agree?

TRUMP: I don't know. I'm not a lawyer. I don't know.

WELKER: Don't you need to uphold the Constitution?

TRUMP: I don't know

Japan says US Treasury holdings could be ‘card’ in trade talks Finance minister Katsunobu Kato hints that country’s more than $1tn in Treasuries gives it leverage in negotiations

1/6
As always, the idea that countries like Japan can use their massive holdings of US Treasuries as "leverage" in trade talks is a fantasy. For decades we have heard similar warnings from other countries, and yet no one ever uses this leverage.

www.ft.com/content/912f...

US-China trade war: Who blinks first to negotiate tariffs? Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are locked in a game of chicken - despite wanting the same outcome.

For Xi, Mr Sung described the situation as a "two-level game".

Link to the story: www.bbc.com/news/article... /11

"China... needs to manage US-China bilateral negotiations, while domestically Beijing needs to save enough face so that the Chinese leadership can hold on to this narrative of 'the East is rising & the West is declining'," he says.

"Kowtowing of the East towards the West is not a rising East." /10

"Trump recognises he's not going to get anywhere near 100% of what he wants, so he's trying to find a concession point where China can let him have just enough winning, especially for domestic purposes."

While China is not unwilling, he adds, "they are... stuck on what's the right price point". /9

"Both [Trump and Xi] recognise that at this point of the trade war, it's not going to be a winner-takes-all outcome for either side anymore," Mr Sung says. /8

That way, the side that does indeed come to the table first is still able to characterise it as a response rather than the first move.

In Trump and Xi's case, it would also mean that tariff negotiations could begin with both leaders claiming to have achieved some kind of victory in the trade war /7

One way to escape this game of chicken is when a third party mediates, offering both sides an off-ramp. The other option, Mr Sung explains, is a "much looser understanding of what 'the other side has reached out' means". /6

It is this tactic that Mr Sung points to as an explanation for Yuyuantantian's Weibo post.

"This is Beijing trying to explore the possibility of using word games to create an off-ramp for both sides, so that they can gradually climb their way down from this escalation spiral," he says. /5

This peculiar stalemate – where both parties seek the same outcome, but neither wants to be the first to suggest it – has resulted in a tactic of "constructive ambiguity": the deliberate use of language so vague that each party could arguably claim to be in the right. /4

The leader who admits he was the first to initiate tariff talks would be seen as the one compromising his position in negotiations.

"Whoever seems desperate loses bargaining leverage," Mr Sung says. "Both sides want to portray the other side as the more desperate one." /3

Wen-Ti Sung, an academic member of the Australian Centre on China in the World, puts it another way: "It's like two race cars going at each other: whoever swerves first will be seen as the weaker of the two parties. And at this juncture, neither party wants to look soft." /2

I gave some comments to @BBC on how Trump and Xi Jinping can find ways to re-engage and rein in the trade war.

Neither side is going to get 100% of what they want. So finding an off-ramp while preserving face requires both sides to be willing to show some degree of constructive ambiguity. 🧵 /1

"and seek dialogue based on equality, respect and mutual benefit,” Guo added. “Any claims about the progress of China-US trade negotiations are groundless as trying to catch the wind and have no factual basis,” the Commerce Ministry said the same day. open.substack.com/pub/dexter/p/t

DOGE Put a College Student in Charge of Using AI to Rewrite Regulations A DOGE operative has been tasked with using AI to propose rewrites to the Department of Housing and Urban Development's regulations—an effort sources are told will roll out across government.

SCOOP: A young man with no government experience who hasn’t even finished his undergrad degree is working for Elon Musk’s DOGE at the Department of Housing and Urban Development and has been tasked with using AI to rewrite the agency’s rules and regulations.

Live streams of Canadian election night coverage:

CBC: youtube.com/watch?v=SATB...

CTV: youtube.com/watch?v=kWUG...

Global News: youtube.com/watch?v=tHOF...

Bluesky does not suppress posts with external links like X, and there is a massive difference in engagement on posts with external links between the two apps. Elon wants you to stay on X and never leave.

How to circumvent Trump's tariffs against Chinese goods that are "Made in China":

In Depth: How China Can Counter Trump’s Tariffs Analysts recommend expanding fiscal deficits and directing funds to boost household spending and public services, while also seeking global alliances

1/8
This Caixin article summarizes various proposals by Chinese academics on how to respond to Trump's tariffs. Most of these proposals focus on boosting domestic demand, but some involve expanding "free-trade" relationships with other countries, which...
www.caixinglobal.com/2025-04-18/i...

5/5
Either we need a trading regime in which countries don't compete by suppressing domestic demand, or one in which the US (and the UK and Canada) stop accommodating global savings imbalances through their open financial markets.