Mark Bell

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989-1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989-1991 Editor: James Graham Wilson General Editor: Kathleen B. Rasmussen Department of State Washington 2025

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!

Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.

Explaining the Proliferation of Nuclear Delivery Vehicles How and why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? This article identifies a permissive environment in the nonproliferation regime shaped by three drivers for proliferation: First, the multipurp...

🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess

It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Nuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American Scientists This buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:

🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time

Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5

Although US credibility not perfect. Plausible Germany might ultimately bank on Fr/UK (less capabilities but more political commitment) over US (more capabilities but less political commitment)? Relevance of US damage limitation is limited if Europe judges the US doesn't care about defending them...

Britain's Opposition to German Reunification, 1989–1990: The Fine Line between Strategic, Political, and Personal Factors Great Britain had no interest in a reunified Germany, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), in a sec...

Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.

Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government.

That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.

The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1

🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F

Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.

Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

H-bomb creator Richard Garwin was a giant in science, technology, and policy Matt Bunn, a Harvard nuclear security expert, recalls how he got to know Garwin as a tireless and effective participant in dialogues with scientists and officials in Russia, China, India, and elsewher...

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...

My initial impression: Macron is saying he wants France to have an extended nuclear deterrence policy, but without doing anything costly to make such an extended deterrent commitment credible to allies and adversaries. Which... isn't going to work.

Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

Based on what I've seen credibly reported over the last 2-3 hours, it is fair to now call this a full-scale war.

Trump wants a Golden Dome over America. Here's what it would take Experts are divided whether a new missile defense system for the U.S., inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, would be worth the cost.

"It's the difference between a kayak and a battleship" -- why building a Golden Dome over the US would be so much harder than Israel's Iron Dome. Leave it to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social to come up with the striking simile.
I belatedly came across the NPR article.
www.npr.org/2025/04/22/g...

I’ve been honored to serve as the @apsa.bsky.social rep on the committee (a role mandated by Congress) since 2020 + to have chaired the committee since 2021. Congress understood in creating its 1991 statute governing our work the importance of “thorough, accurate, and reliable” accounts of the past

Tim Naftali's tweet on the termination of the HAC members without cause.

Unhappy to confirm that the entire Historical Advisory Committee at the State Department received termination notices this afternoon (myself included). The HAC, set up by Congress, oversees the office that produces the FRUS series. history.state.gov/about/hac/in... 1/

Demystifying Congress Capitol Hill insider turned political science professor, Kathryn Pearson is on a mission to demystify Congress.

American politics powerhouse and professor Kathryn Pearson @kpminnesota.bsky.social has been named @umncla.bsky.social's 2025 Dean's Medalist.

Learn how she came to specialize in American politics, her current research, and her approach to teaching: cla.umn.edu/news-events/...

I'm excited to share that my book, Rebels in the Field, will be coming out with Oxford University Press this summer. The book focuses on the military processes involved in deploying force in substate conflicts.

Good explainer from @wired.com on long-term plans globally to store used nuclear fuel in deep geological repositories.👇

Finland's is just about ready to go, with Sweden, France, Switzerland, Canada and others advancing similar projects.

#NukeSky 🔌💡

New Philanthropic Consortium to Reduce Nuclear Dangers Announced by Carnegie Corporation of New York | Carnegie Corporation of New York More than $10 million pledged to launch a new fund focused on reducing the modern risks of nuclear war and promoting next-generation expertise

🚨 New initiative alert! We're launching a $10.2M collaborative fund to reduce nuclear dangers.

Learn more about the consortium, grant opportunity, and why now is the time for #philanthropy to step up.
carnegie.io/3GmKDj2

Fascinating new @tnsr.org article by @jjjcameron.bsky.social about history of US/Soviet arms control but also about the broader concept of strategic stability and how it gets invoked and used politically

Taking place tomorrow. Still time to sign up, if you are interested.

Delighted to participate in an @h-diplo.bsky.social roundtable on James Lebovic's important OUP book The False Promise of Superiority, alongside insightful contributions from
@paulcavey.bsky.social
@mariarostrublee.bsky.social @mcfuhrmann.bsky.social issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/RJI...

European Nuclear Deterrence in the Post-American Age - Department of Political Science Associate Professor Mark Bell (University of Minnesota) and Doctoral Research Fellow Fabian Hoffmann (Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo) will discuss their research on the future of European nu...

Next week Tuesday, 22 April, from 15:00–16:00 CET (09:00–10:00 ET), @marksbell.bsky.social and I will be presenting our ongoing research on European nuclear deterrence in the post-American nuclear age as part of an ONP Seminar.

Sign-up link below.

www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/...

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