Mark Bell

In March, the America in the World Consortium will be hosting a one-day workshop for early-career scholars and practitioners on US nuclear policy in the 21st century.

Paper proposals due December 15.

www.awconsortium.org/about/call-f...

Internship in Local Politics to Communications Director in D.C. The internships Jack Stelzner (BA '19) found and gained credit for through the Department of Political Science ultimately led him to his current position in D.C.

For Jack Stelzner @stelz.bsky.social (BA '19), the internships he had as an undergraduate student, and the ability to earn academic credit for them, were crucial steps in his professional journey. Now, he is a communications director in the U.S. House of Representatives.
cla.umn.edu/polisci/news...

The Stanton Foundation awards a new major grant to @hertieschool.bsky.social's Centre for International Security, funding annual Stanton Fellowships & the Frank Stanton Distinguished Visiting Chair to grow nuclear security research & transatlantic collaboration. Read More → lnkd.in/dNega9gP

Who called it "Elevate Extraordinary" and not "Gopher Broke"

Possible I'm just trying to elevate extraordinary in how I characterize them

I am currently in several angry text chains on this subject

New Strategic Simplicity podcast - Part Two of a series called "Debating Damage Limitation." Link below:

The new book... exists!!! Got my author copies in the mail today! Looks quite readable! Spelled my name right on the cover, even!!!

harpercollins.com/products/the-most-awful-responsibility-alex-wellerstein

Rash: Trump’s ‘alarming’ and ‘incoherent’ stand on nuclear testing Last week, Trump took to Truth Social to call for the resumption of nuclear weapon detonation tests, which the U.S. hasn’t conducted since 1992, John Rash writes.

Professor Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social discusses the confusion caused by Trump's recent statement on nuclear testing and what shift it could signal in policy in @startribune.com article.

www.startribune.com/trump-admini...

Hi folks! A few thoughts on this essay, and the questions that we *should* be asking, rather than the ones this Army officer seems inclined to answer. I haven’t done a CMR thread in a while so I’m overdue. 🧵

1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.

I'm pleased to share my open access article in International Security on the role of allies in U.S. space power.
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989-1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989-1991 Editor: James Graham Wilson General Editor: Kathleen B. Rasmussen Department of State Washington 2025

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1989–1992, Volume XXXI, START I, 1989–1991 is out today!

Huge congratulations to @jamesgrahamwilson.bsky.social and the rest of the team at the State Department's Office of the Historian. history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Thanks @lanoszka.bsky.social for the kind words, and for reminding me to engage in SELF PROMOTION ☝️ Russian ☢️-deployments to Belarus are driven by 🇷🇺 interests: preventing interference in 🇧🇾 and using them as a lever against NATO. At least, that is what I deduce from the limited evidence available.

Explaining the Proliferation of Nuclear Delivery Vehicles How and why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? This article identifies a permissive environment in the nonproliferation regime shaped by three drivers for proliferation: First, the multipurp...

🚨 How & why do nuclear delivery vehicles proliferate? My article on the spread of delivery vehicles is out at Security Studies! #OpenAccess

It explains:
- Why the NPT allows nuclear delivery vehicles to spread
- How did India acquire its #nuclear delivery technology
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Nuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American Scientists This buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:

🤔 DF-61 - new ICBM??
🕳️ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
✈️ air-launched ballistic missile?
🔺 entire nuclear triad displayed for first time

Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

The Art of Coercion by Reid B. C. Pauly | Paperback | Cornell University Press The Art of Coercion presents a fresh explanation for the success—and failure—of coercive demands in international politics.Strong states are surprisingly bad at coercion. History shows they prevail...

🚨 It’s publication day!

THE ART OF COERCION is finally out.

When do threats work? When they are perceived as credibly *conditional*. Credible and painful punishments are not enough.

Threats fail if targets feel “damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

shorturl.at/qa4T5

Although US credibility not perfect. Plausible Germany might ultimately bank on Fr/UK (less capabilities but more political commitment) over US (more capabilities but less political commitment)? Relevance of US damage limitation is limited if Europe judges the US doesn't care about defending them...

Britain's Opposition to German Reunification, 1989–1990: The Fine Line between Strategic, Political, and Personal Factors Great Britain had no interest in a reunified Germany, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher told Mikhail Gorbachev, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), in a sec...

Why did Margaret Thatcher oppose German reunification 35 years ago? Yes, she disliked the Germans - but her deeper fear was socialism creeping into Britain through the Brussels backdoor, driven by an increasingly dominant Germany. Probably my best research. Let me know if you’d like a copy.

Vipin and I wrote a new piece for Foreign Affairs, called "How to Survive the New Nuclear Age". Gift link below.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

Melissa Hortman, who was assassinated last night, was the Speaker of the Minnesota House in the 2023-2024 session, when Democrats ran the state government.

That means she had a leading role in shepherding the many landmark reforms that Dems adopted in that period—an important legacy. Brief 🧵.

The Israelis are calling this a "preemptive" strike. Whether you agree or disagree with this attack, these are not - from what we know tonight - "preemptive" strikes. The Israelis are using that word for a reason. Read on. /1

🚨The UK Nuclear Deterrence Network's Deterrence Futures Fellowship is now open for applications. Join the conversation on the evolving nature of deterrence in today's complex security landscape. For more details visit our website: bit.ly/4mWPE2F

Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.

Without the U.S. nuclear backstop, Europe would be best served by prioritizing nonproliferation and credible deterrence—and accepting a level of strategic instability in Europe-Russian relations, write @marksbell.bsky.social and @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

H-bomb creator Richard Garwin was a giant in science, technology, and policy Matt Bunn, a Harvard nuclear security expert, recalls how he got to know Garwin as a tireless and effective participant in dialogues with scientists and officials in Russia, China, India, and elsewher...

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists republished my remembrance of Dick Garwin. thebulletin.org/2025/05/h-bo...

Very pleased to have this research note in ISQ! It finds that unconditional signals of U.S. abandonment, and to a lesser extent conditional U.S. threats of abandonment and increased alliance burden-sharing, modestly increase support for nuclear weapons. But effect sizes are fairly small overall.

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>