Atlantic Council

Trump wants Iranians to ‘take back their country' from the regime. Can they? To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

To succeed in overthrowing the Iranian regime, an uprising would likely require a unifying leader, an effective organization, and the support of whatever remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, writes Alan Pino.

Decapitation strikes are not enough to take on Mexico’s cartels. Here’s what else the US should do. Strikes on cartels should be combined with greater efforts to disrupt supply and reduce substance use disorder in the United States.

The United States “must heed the lessons of history and avoid conflating the temporary satisfaction of decapitation strikes with a coherent strategy that will weaken cartels,” writes Charlotte Bertrand.

The Gulf that emerges from the Iran war will be very different Iran’s decision to target the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Gulf will have far-reaching consequences.

Iran’s decision to target the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and other countries in the Gulf will have far-reaching consequences, writes Allison Minor.

Read more:

Don't worry about the Iran conflict's impact on oil prices—yet Markets can tolerate a spike. What they cannot tolerate is prolonged uncertainty over trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Worried about how the Iran conflict could impact oil prices?

“Now is not the time to hyperventilate over oil,” says the Atlantic Council’s Landon Derentz.

The United States, he writes, should first focus on ensuring Iran does not emerge from the conflict “with a viable nuclear weapons program.”

Iran's supreme leader is dead. Here's what it means. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed in a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Feb. 28.

FAST THINKING: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli bombing campaign on Saturday.

Atlantic Council experts assess the significance of the development for Iran and the broader region:

What Trump’s ‘Epic Fury’ means for Iran and the Middle East Operation Epic Fury has begun. On Feb. 28, US President Donald Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” attack on Iran.

FAST THINKING: On Saturday morning, President Trump announced a “massive and ongoing” attack on Iran.

With the goals, duration, and outcome of this emerging war still unclear, our experts make sense of the conflict’s early hours:

As Russian battlefield losses mount, Putin is turning to Africa for soldiers Russia's growing reliance on African recruits to continue the war in Ukraine is a powerful symbol of an invasion that has gone horribly wrong for Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin, writes Katherine Spencer.

#UkraineAlert – As Russia’s war against Ukraine enters its fifth year, Moscow is increasingly relying on African recruits to prevent its battlefield losses from destabilizing the country, writes Katherine Spencer.

Weaponizing the odds: Prediction markets as a new vector for foreign influence As these markets proliferate, policymakers should treat them as dual-use infrastructures that require deliberate guardrails.

📈 Media organizations are increasingly treating prediction markets as authoritative signals.

Policymakers should treat them as dual-use infrastructures that require deliberate guardrails, writes Matthew Wein.

Welcome to 2036: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 450 experts We polled geostrategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade.

🔴 What will the world look like in 2036?

We asked 447 geostrategists and foresight experts to share their insights.

🇨🇳 China leads economically
🪖 Russia’s war in Ukraine freezes
🚀 More countries go nuclear
🤖 AI surpasses human capabilities

Explore the survey’s ten biggest findings:

When economic warfare meets gunboat diplomacy: What to know about the US seizures of shadow fleet tankers The Trump administration's seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raises several crucial legal and logistical questions.

The Trump administration’s seizures of “shadow fleet” vessels evading US sanctions raise several crucial legal and logistical questions, writes Stephanie Connor.

Read more:

Seven things to know about the potential for resumed Iran nuclear negotiations The tentatively planned resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks this week does not mean US military action is off the table.

The tentatively planned resumption of US-Iran nuclear talks this week does not mean US military action is off the table, writes Nate Swanson.

Read more in Dispatches:

To repair US-Colombia ties, Trump and Petro should focus on counternarcotics and Venezuela By focusing on shared interests on counternarcotics and Venezuela, the US and Colombian presidents can put bilateral relations on a better path.

By focusing on shared interests on counternarcotics and Venezuela, Tuesday’s Oval Office meeting between the US and Colombian presidents can put the two nations’ bilateral relations on a better path, writes Kevin Whitaker.

🎙️ Introducing Guide to the Global Economy podcast, from our GeoEconomics Center.

In the premiere episode, Josh Lipsky and Charles Lichfield discuss: what happens when a central bank loses independence?

🎧 Watch or listen now 👇
YouTube: https://bit.ly/4r8vHqI

The ‘mother of all' trade deals in the time of Trump On Tuesday, the European Union and India announced a free trade deal--an example of how the global system is reorganizing itself.

The India-EU free trade deal announced on Tuesday is “one of the most dramatic markers yet of how the global system is reorganizing itself in the time of Trump,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPointsToday.

Read more:

TikTok’s new ownership structure doesn’t solve security concerns for Americans The deal does little to address the systemic challenges of information manipulation, foreign influence, and data exploitation on the platform.

A new entity controlling TikTok in the US is being sold as a step toward addressing foreign influence and data security concerns, writes Kenton Thibaut.

But China’s influence campaigns and access to data on Americans do not rely on TikTok.

At Davos, Trump's ‘shock therapy' leaves Europe shaken but healthier European leaders now recognize that the continent must fundamentally treat its chronic problems or further surrender global relevance.

Trump’s ‘shock therapy’ approach to Europe has “broken decades of strategic complacency and forced long-postponed decisions on defense, trade, and autonomy,” writes Frederick Kempe in #InflectionPoints.

Trump may move on from Greenland. Europe won’t. Trump’s willingness to engage in brinkmanship with Europe over Greenland will have a lasting impact on how the continent’s leaders approach relations with Washington.

Trump’s willingness to engage in brinkmanship with Europe over Greenland will have a lasting impact on how the continent’s leaders approach relations with Washington, write Jorn Fleck and James Batchik.

How will the Trump-Powell clash shake the global economy? The US Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Our chair of international economics explains how this could impact US and global markets.

FAST THINKING: The Justice Department is undertaking a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Our chair of international economics Josh Lipsky explains how this could impact US and global markets:

Delcy Rodríguez’s untenable balancing act Venezuela’s new acting president must choose between accommodating the Trump administration’s demands and preserving unity among the regime’s Chavista base.

Delcy Rodríguez's role as Venezuela's acting president is an impossible balancing act: satisfy Trump's demands, maintain support from the Chavista coalition, and keep alliances with China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/d...

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

How to equip Canada’s defense industrial base to meet NATO's Hague summit commitments In 2025 Canada met NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense for the first time and committed to the new target of 5 percent by 2035, but its defense industrial base will struggle to deliv...

Canada's defense industrial base will struggle to deliver in its current state says Jason C. Moyer with the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Trump’s quest for Greenland could be NATO’s darkest hour If the United States intervenes to seize Greenland the future of NATO would be at stake. Such a development would be contrary to US national interests.

In my latest piece I argue that the survival of #NATO is at stake if the United States intervenes to seize #Greenland, and that such a development would be contrary to #US national interests.

Read the article⬇️

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social

www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...

Iraq's pathway to stability relies on transfers of power The key question is not whether Sudani is like al-Maliki but whether a second term would reduce competition and weaken institutions.

In a new article for @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social, SIS scholar @yerevansaeed.bsky.social discusses Iraq’s political future, examining why transfers of power are critical to long-term stability.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/iraqs-pathway-to-stability-relies-on-transfers-of-power/

Delcy Rodríguez's untenable balancing act Venezuela's new acting president must choose between accommodating the Trump administration's demands and preserving unity among the regime's Chavista base.

Venezuela’s new acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, must satisfy Washington’s demands while maintaining sufficient support among the Venezuelan elite to avoid a regime fracture, writes Iria Puyosa.

Trump's quest for Greenland could be NATO's darkest hour If the United States intervenes to seize Greenland the future of NATO would be at stake. Such a development would be contrary to US national interests.

If the United States intervenes to seize Greenland, the future of NATO would be at stake. Such a development would be contrary to US national interests, writes Anna Wieslander.

Why Maduro's removal could ultimately benefit China Two important factors make the recent US operation in Venezuela less of a loss for China than many analysts realize.

Many US analysts view the ouster of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro as benefiting the US at China’s expense, but two big factors make this less of a win for Washington and less of a loss for Beijing, writes Melanie Hart.

Greenland is Europe's strategic blind spot--and its responsibility If Europe wants to ensure that no one can do to Greenland what the United States did in Venezuela, then it must stop relying on rules alone.

In responding to recent rhetoric from the White House about “taking” Greenland, European leaders need to look beyond the legal infeasibility, writes Justina Budginaite-Froehly.

Now comes the hard part: What Trump should do next to secure Venezuela's democratic future The United States is now forced to depend on the remnants of the Maduro regime for the next stage in the mission.

“Ultimately, what’s needed in Venezuela is a partner government that allows for the freedom of its people, respects foreign investment, and that advances US and Venezuelan security and economic interests,” writes Jason Marczak.

Your expert guide to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act As the Senate sends the annual defense policy bill to the president's desk, Atlantic Council experts dig into the details.

On Wednesday, the US Senate passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2026. The bill authorizes more than $900 billion in spending and covers all corners of the defense policy landscape.

Below, Atlantic Council experts dig into the details. ⬇️

Is Iran's Axis of Resistance turning toward Tunisia? Tunisian President Kais Saied sees clear political advantage in drawing closer to Tehran.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s recent visit to Tunisia has renewed speculation about Tunis’s shifting posture toward Tehran and the broader expansion of Iranian influence in the region, writes Alissa Pavia.

‘Putin is lying': Zelenskyy visits front to expose false claims of Russian gains Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a personal visit last week to a front line city that Putin has repeatedly bragged of seizing in order to expose the Russian leader's habit of lying about battlefield gains, writes Peter Dickinson.

#UkraineAlert – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a personal visit last week to a front line city that Putin has repeatedly bragged of seizing in order to expose the Russian leader’s habit of lying about battlefield gains, writes Peter Dickinson.