Sophie Hale

So overall July trade looked steady, but the big picture: already weak goods exports + high trade uncertainty = trouble. The extent to which the US deal can alleviate this is still to be seen.

But what is more worrying is that the weak goods performance this year is nothing new. UK goods exports have continued to considerably underperform the rest of the G7. With the UKs overall export performance buoyed by a much stronger services performance.

The weakness of exports to the US was felt across manufacturing sectors - with both chemicals and cars exports down more than 20% on this period last year.

But the impact of US tariffs seems to be materialising. UK exports to the US since April (when new tariffs were initially applied to UK goods) were 14% below their level over the same period last year (compared to just 4% lower with the world).

Global trade uncertainty has been unprecedently high, due to the tariff announcement coming from the US. And so a disruption to goods trade is unsurprising. Of course, for the UK, high trade uncertainty is nothing new, with years of high uncertainty following the EU referendum.

But taking a step back to look at year to date where does this leave us? Despite the growth in July, goods export volumes are down 1% on last year. Meanwhile services export volumes have grown 5.5% and imports by 8.2%.

Starting with monthly trade volumes, total goods (excluding precious metals) exports grew by 5.2%, driven mainly by non-EU growth. Goods imports also grew by 4.1%. Services trade on the other hand was weak in July, with exports falling by 0.4% on the June.

Exciting news: I’m back from maternity leave👶and so I'm diving straight in with today’s July 2025 trade data release. But after a few months away, I’ll also step back to see how trade has evolved so far this year.

Still a week left to apply for this fantastic opportunity to work at the Resolution Foundation!

🚨 New Research🚨

In the sixth Intergenerational Audit for the UK, part of the @ConnectingGens research programme, @mollybroome.bsky.social , @sophiehale.bsky.social and @hannahslaughter.bsky.social evaluate the economic importance of intergenerational exchanges.

➡️ https://buff.ly/4hYPPb9

Enjoyed working on this “inter generational audit” with @hannahslaughter.bsky.social @sophiehale.bsky.social & @mollybroome.bsky.social

The role of extended families in care, money & housing is increasing, but also increasingly strained

www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/...

‼️New report out today 'Trading blows' with @sophiehale.bsky.social

We reflect on the UK's trade landscape post-Brexit and Covid - e.g. that exports of some highly regulated professional services – like accounting & tax, engineering, and legal – are growing slower than the average service sector.

Trading blows • Resolution Foundation Recently the UK has faced tough times in trade, juggling twin shocks of Brexit and Covid. While service exports have stayed strong, goods trade has struggled. With a possible further disruption to goo...

🚨🚨 I know there has been a lot of #brexit posting today but this is another truly fascinating @resfoundation.bsky.social report by @sophiehale.bsky.social & @emilyfry.bsky.social with the ominous title "Trading Blows". Key insights are worth restating 🧵
www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Brexit is ‘stifling’ exports and imports, report finds UK trade deal with EU has led to ‘profound and ongoing’ impact on goods flow

🚨🚨 Brexit is ‘stifling’ exports and imports". Report by economists at Aston University finds that the EU-UK TCA has led to ‘profound and ongoing’ impact on goods flow. Great write-up by @pmdfoster.bsky.social of solid research on the negative effects of #brexit on trade. 🧵
www.ft.com/content/21b2...

Overall July trade data unwinds goods export growth seen in June, leaving UK trade following its post-Brexit pattern: broad-based weak goods trade but relatively resilient services trade.

And worryingly this goods weakness continues to be pretty widespread across sectors – with both high value-added machinery and transport and chemicals sectors exports falling to both the EU and non-EU.

Revisiting last month’s quarterly trade data though, the UK’s weak goods export performance continues to stand out: the gap between the UK and the rest of the G7 continues to widen, leaving the UK the only G7 country with goods export volumes still below Q4-2018 levels.

This year that leaves UK trade values looking substantially weaker than Canada and the US, but stronger than Germany which has also struggled to reinvigorate its goods exports.

Comparing the year to date with last year we see goods trade volumes remain down, led by weaker goods exports to the EU (which fell 5.4%). Meanwhile, services trade volumes continue to show reasonable growth on last year.

But this reversal of the goods export growth in June and lackluster output performance is disappointing, given PMIs suggest that UK manufacturing has turned a corner – so far this doesn’t seem to be appearing in the data. x.com/JamesSmithRF...

This aligns with what we are seeing in monthly GDP, with services sectors growth outweighing larger falls in production output.

Monthly trade dominated by very weak goods export volumes in July, to both EU and non-EU partners. Goods exports down 11.5% in July, reversing substantial growth seen last month (+11% in June). Services trade continues to grow, partially offsetting weaker goods trade.

Monthly ONS July trade data weak with monthly trade volumes down by 2.6%, driven by particularly weak monthly export volume of goods. A short thread.