Erin Dumbacher

Watch A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE | Netflix Official Site When a single, unattributed missile is launched at the United States, a race begins to determine who is responsible and how to respond.

I was able to see an early screening of "A House of Dynamite." Americans need to see this movie and remember why nuclear attack is vastly more terrifying than any other threat to our existence.

www.netflix.com/title/81744537

Russia Tests NATO With Poland Drone Breach Russia’s drone incursion into Poland marks a potential dangerous escalation in the Ukraine war that could challenge NATO’s unity and defenses.

www.cfr.org/article/russ...

"...(Type 26) is sailing in company with two uncrewed escorts who are using AI to work in tandem with the warship. (...) It is my aim to have the first of our uncrewed escort ships sailing alongside our Royal Navy warships within the next two years.”"

What is Vladimir Putin’s game plan against Nato’s eastern flank? Drone incursions into Polish airspace lay bare how unprepared military alliance is against surprise Russian attacks

“This was not an accident, obviously, given the number of drones,” said Hodges. “This was a rehearsal. To probe, and find out how good are our early warning systems, what are our reaction times.”

Polish and Dutch fighters, directed by Italian early warning aircraft, German air defenses on alert. Dutch PM: “I’m glad that Dutch F35 fighter jets were able to provide support. The Netherlands stands shoulder to shoulder with our NATO ally Poland.” Common defense working as designed.

Worst incident in a while.

What journalists should know about the atomic bombings As we approach the 75th anniversary of the atomic bombings, we're going to see a lot of journalistic takes on them — many of them totally wrong.

Pretty essential read blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2020/06/09/w...

The Opportunities and Risks Inherent to Trump's AI Action Plan The Trump administration released its AI action plan on July 23 to coincide with its ‘Winning the AI Race’ summit in Washington. CFR convened seven of its experts to examine the plan and detail the o…

Really anywhere that “black box” challenges and the fragility inherent to all AI could not be overcome or could have catastrophic consequences should be off-limits.

AI in the US military and at DoD should make Americans more safe, not less.

www.cfr.org/article/oppo...

(3/3)

If DoD is "aggressively" promoting AI implementation there should be some areas that are just off-limits. Nuclear early warning and qualitative intelligence are two of them.

(2/3)

This is absolutely right. But it's not inevitable that AI will impact nuclear weapons decisions; a hundred humans would need to hand decisions over to machines. We have the power and agency to stop it.

(1/3)

Petrov didn’t know the machine was wrong. He guessed based on his experiences. His radar told him that the US had launched five missiles, but he knew an American attack would be all or nothing. Five was a small number. The computers were also new and had worked faster than he’d seen them perform before. He made a judgement call. “Can we expect humans to be able to do that routinely? Is that a fair expectation?” Lin says. “The point is that you have to go outside your training data. You must go outside your training data to be able to say: ‘No, my training data is telling me something wrong.’ By definition, [AI] can’t do that.”

This issue is bigger than just "robots launch nukes." Every launch requires a thousand human decisions. Humans have saved us from nuclear disaster before.

What happens as those decision makers are replaced by AIs?

Trump escalates nuclear tensions as Russia deadline nears President Trump is rattling the U.S.’s formidable nuclear saber amid his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to halt the war in Ukraine, just days ahead of Tru…

thehill.com/policy/inter...

A senior Western military officer with experience in the world of submarine warfare said he was not sure what tactical actions may have taken place. But he said that because submarines operate so stealthily, Mr. Trump was free to declare he was taking action and the Russians would have to decide whether or not to believe him.

Very good example of why ballistic missile submarines are a bad choice for nuclear signaling.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/u...

Trump: “The USA is fully prepared for a nuclear war with Russia.”

Trump Says He Ordered Subs Repositioned in Rare Nuclear Threat to Russia

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/u...

A good roundup on the context.

www.twz.com/sea/question...

I'm optimistic US IC and commercial satellite firms are finding out what they can. Let's see what the images show and hope for no loss of life.

(4/4)

So as waves meters high likely strike along the coast and at the base, nuclear security questions like:

What are emergency protocols for subs in port and when were they last practiced/drilled?

Any non-deployed warheads or material nearby and at how high of ground? Staff? Infrastructure?

(3/4)

Epicenter likely 65 nautical miles away from the submarine base, roughly.

bsky.app/profile/vcdg...

(2/4)

Russian nuclear submarines cross under Arctic ice near US coast Russia transferred two nuclear-powered submarines from the Northern Fleet to the Pacific Fleet.

You might hear #tsunami warning in the Pacific and think about Japanese nuclear power plants and their power backups. Yes, although lessons were learned from Fukushima.

Also Russia's Pacific nuclear submarines are based on the Kamchatka peninsula.

Thread (1/4)

www.newsweek.com/russian-news...

So the total cost of boats 1-3 increased by 12.4% from FY25 to FY26. And that is unlikely to be the end of the cost growth. Which begs a significant question: How much headroom is left before a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and can the program stay under it? (4/4)

Will Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful’ Defense Spending Last? Trump’s signature legislation will push defense spending past $1 trillion, with new funding for innovation and other capabilities. But those investments are at risk of becoming one-off acquisitions w…

🚀🇺🇸 Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill" adds $150B in defense $. It could accelerate emerging tech adoption to stay ahead of China + bolster nuclear deterrence...or not. Learn more in latest from me, @dumbacher.bsky.social, @laurenakahn.bsky.social for @cfr.org www.cfr.org/expert-brief...

Yes. Plus the IAEA has credibility because of its inspections, which would be nearly impossible to replicate for AI.

Taiwan Looks to New Sea-Drone Tech to Repel China The island plans to start introducing sea drones to its naval forces this year as part of preparations for what it sees as a potential invasion by China as soon as 2027.

Taiwan is accelerating efforts to develop a high-tech fleet of naval drones—a potential game-changer in its ability to fend off a possible Chinese invasion www.wsj.com/world/asia/t...

Wrong, for a number of reasons, some of which (criticality) are addressed in the comments.

Let's do some stoichiometry!

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Whether you agree or not with the proposed solutions (no first use, smaller deterrent force, revising sole authority) in this article, it’s time for a real, honest, modern look at options that don’t put service members in an impossible position. Thanks @radiofreetom.bsky.social

New Pew report

85% of Trump's 2020 voters voted for him in 2024, 3% voted for Harris, 1% voted other, and 11% didn't vote.

Only 79% of Biden's 2020 voters voted for Harris, 5% voted for Trump, 1% voted other, and 15% didn't vote.

www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...

Don't forget that foundational investments in the #NNSA's nonproliferation capabilities mean we have off-the-shelf tools for out-of-the-ordinary situations. With at least 400 kgs of enriched uranium in the wind, what would a regime collapse mean for global security? 1/5

BREAKING: Iran has launched missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar and possibly facilities in Iraq.

First unconfirmed videos from Qatar show multiple interceptors airborne.

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

U.S. Officials Concede They Don’t Know Whereabouts of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile

The director of general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he believed Tehran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material had been moved before the strikes.

David Sanger

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...