James Cameron

In Oslo, at least, it is much harder to live on one salary if you are a family. The pay differentials are such that having both partners employed is a much bigger boost to family income than having one person in a (slightly) higher-paid job.

Just from memory. I got the invasion right, but thought the Russians would win quickly.

On Ukraine: as I remember from 2022 Twitter days, Martin accurately predicted that Russian forces wouldn't do well because it was hard to ID a workable theory of victory.

Fascist Adam Curtis.

Probably a better bet than banking on Trump or his ideological successors to provide the kind of timely warning of a Russian invasion that the US did in 2022.

Seems like a hell of a lot -- particularly with enablers -- for a show of force.

It's so weird -- and the only non-US institution on the list.

Feels weird to be nostalgic for the days of dodgy dossiers and freedom fries, but I guess that's where we are now.

Perhaps, though the reporting suggests that Ukraine's stance at the beginning of the war was not so much the product of a preconceived plan, as a scramble to mobilize under suboptimal constraints from the top.

No, any such plan to limit Iran's nuclear program would be a completely unique manifestation of President Trump's outstanding genius and bear only a superficial resemblance to any previous, lesser, agreements.

That should be our story and we should stick to it if that's what it takes.

A very detailed story on US-UK efforts in 2021-2022 to warn Ukraine and the rest of Europe about a Russian invasion.

If Trump had been in charge:

A) Would the US have made such an intelligence-led push to inform allies of Russian plans?

B) What are the implications of that for future crises?

A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans ...

By January 2022, the US had received intel that "Russian troops would invade Ukraine from several directions, including from Belarus, airborne forces would land at Hostomel airport outside Kyiv to set up the capture of the capital, and there was a plan afoot to assassinate Zelenskyy."

As we have repeatedly tried to explain to a government intent on punishing universities, graduate outcomes will always be poor if you underpay every sector. (Nb y axis starting at 50)

Congratulations, Peter!

TWO DOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS IN EAST ASIAN RELIGIONS (296038) | University of Oslo Job title: TWO DOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS IN EAST ASIAN RELIGIONS (296038), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, April 6, 2026

Job alert!

We are looking for talented PhD researchers to write a dissertation on Benzaiten worship in modern Japan or Mazu pilgrimages in Taiwan, as part of the ERC project "Maritime Goddesses: Transnational Connections, Blue Environments, and Ritual Care in East- and Southeast Asia" (MARGO).

A few thoughts on possible US-Iran conflict (1/11):

Trump can't present the American people with a justification for military action against Iran, because he hasn't decided what the aim of said military action would be.

Granted, Iraq 2003 was a land invasion, but it was preceded by months of debate.

Pretty much the sum total of his case to the American people for military action that could spark a regional war.

I do like "denktheoretisch" -- one level of abstraction above "theoretical."

On Merz and FCAS.

Thanks!

a close up of a man 's face with a serious look on his face . Alt: Saving Private Ryan aging gif.

I'm old enough to remember when the E-3 AWACS was a cutting-edge aircraft.

Major Deployment Of Rickety E-3 Sentry Fleet For Iran Crisis Highlights Worrisome Gaps The shrunken E-3 fleet isn't getting any younger, and a replacement is still far off while demand for its services would be far greater in the Pacific.

"The U.S. Air Force currently has just 16 E-3s remaining in its inventory, roughly half the size of what it was just a few years ago. Six aircraft [probably deployed for operations against Iran] represent 37.5 percent of the total fleet."

It's surreal to watch the huge US air buildup around Iran without any concerted attempt by the administration to make the case for military action.

I'm happy to announce the publication of my article about a curious early episode in the U.S.-Afghan relationship: the Inland oil concession. In 1936, the Afghan government offered the Inland Exploration Company – the local arm of a mid-sized domestic U.S. firm – an exclusive concession across 🇦🇫.

The only reason for (slight) optimism is that UCL settled out of court, so there's no judgment that would act as a precedent for future cases.

Friedrich Merz says fighter jet project fails to meet Germany’s needs Chancellor’s comments contradict Emmanuel Macron and hint at probable unravelling of the Future Combat Air System

Merz: “The French need a nuclear-capable aircraft in the next generation of combat aircraft, we don’t need that in the German Bundeswehr right now.”

Note the "right now."

On the Trump administration's claims regarding a Chinese nuclear test on 22 June 2020.

So I think we are seeing multiple small signals at far closer distances along the road visible on Google Earth. There is nothing in the seismic signal at IC.WMQ to suggest that it came from close to the Lop Nor test site.