James Cameron

For Iran’s Rulers, Refusing U.S. Demands Is a Risk Worth Taking

"Iran has refused to concede to President Trump’s demands on its nuclear program and weapons — a stance that has bewildered U.S. officials."

I guess many international issues are bewildering if you know next to nothing about them.

Some thoughts on the impending U.S. operation against Iran:

1) Within hours, the United States, together with Israel, will establish complete air dominance over Iran. What follows will be a highly visible display of power that only the United States can generate at scale.

1/6

We had Carlton. People living on the other side of the hill got Meridian.

Defecting.

On the other hand, the Trump admin has devalued any US-UK trade deal by defeating so easily from the last one.

The country is positioning ballistic missile launchers along its western border with Iraq — close enough to strike Israel — and along its southern shores on the Persian Gulf, within range of American military bases and other targets in the region, the three Guards members and four senior officials said.

I would guess that US adversaries will be watching any campaign against Iran to see how effective American attacks on Iranian missile forces -- and hence US conventional counterforce capabilities -- actually are. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...

Iran will submit a proposal — it would be irrational not to. Then what? The Iranians can keep talking, while the US can only maintain its current buildup for so long.

I'm not enough of an expert on military logistics to say how long. I would guess only a couple of weeks at peak readiness?

The country is positioning ballistic missile launchers along its western border with Iraq — close enough to strike Israel — and along its southern shores on the Persian Gulf, within range of American military bases and other targets in the region, the three Guards members and four senior officials said.

I would guess that US adversaries will be watching any campaign against Iran to see how effective American attacks on Iranian missile forces -- and hence US conventional counterforce capabilities -- actually are. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/w...

The reports of "hospital boats for Greenland" are greatly exaggerated. Both US hospital SHIPS, USNS Mercy and Comfort, are in an Alabama Shipyard. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Remember that time the Pentagon's National Defense Strategy declared that the US had "obliterated Iran's nuclear program"? That was **checks notes** January 23, less than 30 days ago.

It's probably also true that one bears a higher tax burden as a single person, while getting fewer of the benefits, most of which stem from free or heavily subsidized childcare and education.

In Oslo, at least, it is much harder to live on one salary if you are a family. The pay differentials are such that having both partners employed is a much bigger boost to family income than having one person in a (slightly) higher-paid job.

Just from memory. I got the invasion right, but thought the Russians would win quickly.

On Ukraine: as I remember from 2022 Twitter days, Martin accurately predicted that Russian forces wouldn't do well because it was hard to ID a workable theory of victory.

Fascist Adam Curtis.

Probably a better bet than banking on Trump or his ideological successors to provide the kind of timely warning of a Russian invasion that the US did in 2022.

Seems like a hell of a lot -- particularly with enablers -- for a show of force.

It's so weird -- and the only non-US institution on the list.

Feels weird to be nostalgic for the days of dodgy dossiers and freedom fries, but I guess that's where we are now.

Perhaps, though the reporting suggests that Ukraine's stance at the beginning of the war was not so much the product of a preconceived plan, as a scramble to mobilize under suboptimal constraints from the top.

No, any such plan to limit Iran's nuclear program would be a completely unique manifestation of President Trump's outstanding genius and bear only a superficial resemblance to any previous, lesser, agreements.

That should be our story and we should stick to it if that's what it takes.

A very detailed story on US-UK efforts in 2021-2022 to warn Ukraine and the rest of Europe about a Russian invasion.

If Trump had been in charge:

A) Would the US have made such an intelligence-led push to inform allies of Russian plans?

B) What are the implications of that for future crises?

A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans ...

By January 2022, the US had received intel that "Russian troops would invade Ukraine from several directions, including from Belarus, airborne forces would land at Hostomel airport outside Kyiv to set up the capture of the capital, and there was a plan afoot to assassinate Zelenskyy."

As we have repeatedly tried to explain to a government intent on punishing universities, graduate outcomes will always be poor if you underpay every sector. (Nb y axis starting at 50)

Congratulations, Peter!

TWO DOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS IN EAST ASIAN RELIGIONS (296038) | University of Oslo Job title: TWO DOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS IN EAST ASIAN RELIGIONS (296038), Employer: University of Oslo, Deadline: Monday, April 6, 2026

Job alert!

We are looking for talented PhD researchers to write a dissertation on Benzaiten worship in modern Japan or Mazu pilgrimages in Taiwan, as part of the ERC project "Maritime Goddesses: Transnational Connections, Blue Environments, and Ritual Care in East- and Southeast Asia" (MARGO).

A few thoughts on possible US-Iran conflict (1/11):

Trump can't present the American people with a justification for military action against Iran, because he hasn't decided what the aim of said military action would be.

Granted, Iraq 2003 was a land invasion, but it was preceded by months of debate.

Pretty much the sum total of his case to the American people for military action that could spark a regional war.