First Alert Hurricane Tracker

Get ready to turn much cooler on Thursday as the airmass changes, which will feel a little breezy at times. We start the day in the mid-40s, warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon. We turn even cooler for Friday before warming this weekend. chswx.com

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>100 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br><br>Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.<br><br>$$<br>Forecaster Papin<br>NNNN<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Mon, 18 Nov 2024 17:17:44 GMT
Additional Details Here.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 172034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a turn northwestward is expected by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough either tonight or tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low or open up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Depression Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Tropical Depression Sara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Depression Sara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Atlantic Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 17 issued at Sun, 17 Nov 2024 20:35:05 +0000
...SARA STILL ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...
Additional Details Here.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 171140 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 87.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 87.9 West. Sara is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will make landfall in Belize later this morning or around midday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Only small fluctuations in strength are anticipated until landfall. Weakening is forecast after the storm moves inland, and dissipation is expected over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 40 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the warning area in portions of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Sara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 15A issued at Sun, 17 Nov 2024 11:40:26 +0000
...SARA NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE BELIZE COAST WITH HEAVY RAINS MOVING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
Additional Details Here.

A strong cold front will bring multiple weather hazards to the Gulf Coast in the upcoming days. See the graphics below for what's in store between now and Tuesday morning #lawx #mswx

Tropical Storm #Sara continues to move very slowly just off the coast of #Honduras, dumping excessive rainfall and causing extreme threats of flash flooding and mudslides. This will continue through the remainder of the weekend as Sara gradually moves westward toward #Belize.

The tropics are still active and we have a system developing in the Caribbean and has pushed over the Yucatán will cause quite a bit of moisture to be picked up by formal system and it will land over southeast Mississippi, Southern, Alabama, and the Florida panhandle next week

Tropical Depression 19, with winds of 35 mph, is just northeast of the coast of Central America.

The new NHC forecast includes lower intensity levels due to land interaction, and suggests the system will survive the trek across the Yucatán Peninsula, emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico

Here are the Tropical Storm #Sara Key Messages for Friday afternoon. The latest advisory is at https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ https://t.co/RdzdmDfM0G

869 WTNT34 KNHC 152331 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border. * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a more west-northwestward motion beginning late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, as long as the system remains offshore. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Sara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Sara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 9A issued at Fri, 15 Nov 2024 23:31:42 +0000
...SARA CRAWLING WESTWARD NEAR THE HONDURAS COAST... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
Additional Details Here.

National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 8 for TROPICAL STORM SARA
at Fri, 15 Nov 2024 14:47:24 +0000 via IEMbot
Additional Details Here.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL<br>TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM<br><br>Tropical Weather Outlook<br>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br>700 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024<br><br>For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br><br>Active systems:<br>The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical <br>Storm Sara, located near the northern coast of Honduras. <br><br>Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.<br><br>$$<br>Forecaster Kelly<br>NNNN<br><br><br>

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Outlook Image

NHC Atlantic Outlook update for Fri, 15 Nov 2024 14:47:15 GMT
Additional Details Here.

977 WTNT34 KNHC 151447 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.0W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras. * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Watches and Warnings could be required for portions of these areas later this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A continued slow westward motion is expected over the next day or so, but a west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize, and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next couple of days as long as Sara remains offshore of the coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala and Belize beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Tropical Storm Sara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image

Tropical Storm Sara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 8 issued at Fri, 15 Nov 2024 14:47:25 +0000
...SARA SLOWING DOWN BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND OF HONDURAS... ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ONGOING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
Additional Details Here.

The combination of #Sara's interaction with Central America and then wind shear moving in over the Gulf of Mexico will likely lead to its demise next week.

Regardless, its moisture will likely reach Florida by Wednesday.

The combination of #Sara's interaction with Central America and then wind shear moving in over the Gulf of Mexico will likely lead to its demise next week.

Regardless, its moisture will likely reach Florida by Wednesday.

Interesting Spaghetti Models on Sara….. But I have a feeling it will be what ever is left of Sara!

Thanks for all the New followers. I’m also on Facebook at first alert hurricane tracker, so please follow me there as well.

Water levels in Charleston Harbor are peaking near 7.5’ MLLW. Be ready to reroute around road closures downtown over the next couple hours.

Tropical Storm Sara more WSW trend means more time with land interaction hurting ability to form proper structure & intensify into Gulf. NHC has system dissipating over Yucatan Peninsula Sun/Mon. This scenario means no US threat. Heavy rain Central America-Yucatan region. 15Nov24

The trend is our friend...woohoo! Great news to report today as TS Sara continues to sag farther south. Therefore the guidance tracks continue to trend farther south & west.
This is great news as it would interact with land and therefore keep it weak. Also the farther west path will take it ove

An amazing face-on view of the spiral galaxy M51, dubbed the Whirlpool Galaxy.

(Credit: NASA, ESA, S. Beckwith (STScI) and the Hubble Heritage Team/STScI/AURA)

Northern Lights Lights Over Polmaddy,GlenKens,Galloway Forest, Scotland #Scotland Polmaddy

Today I will be mainly recovering from visiting 4 volcanoes in Italy in a week for a science doc. And eating many, many fine Neapolitan pizzas. This is either Stromboli, or my digestive system.

We are continuing when to watch Sarah as it pushes into Central America. Once it gets into the go of Campeche will it be strong enough to survive and move toward Florida?

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Arkansas... Black River At Black Rock affecting Lawrence, Jackson and Independence Counties. ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... White River At Augusta affecting Woodruff and White Counties. For the Lower White River...including Newport, Augusta, Georgetown, Des Arc, Clarendon...Minor flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring. * WHERE...Black River at Black Rock. * WHEN...Until early Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Minor flooding begins. Farm ground along east bank begins to flood. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 14.1 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage late Thursday night, and continue falling to 8.8 feet by Tuesday evening. - Flood stage is 14.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Arkansas... Black River At Black Rock affecting Lawrence, Jackson and Independence Counties. ...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Arkansas... White River At Augusta affecting Woodruff and White Counties. For the Lower White River...including Newport, Augusta, Georgetown, Des Arc, Clarendon...Minor flooding is forecast. * WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast. * WHERE...White River at Augusta. * WHEN...Until Saturday, November 23. * IMPACTS...At 28.0 feet, Roads in Henry Gray Hurricane Lake Wildlife Management area flooded. Thousands of acres of cultivated land flooded in White and Woodruff counties. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 8:00 PM CST Thursday the stage was 28.6 feet. - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage Friday, November 22 and continue falling to 23.8 feet Sunday, November 24. - Flood stage is 26.0 feet. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

🚨 Flood Warning issued November 14 at 9:17PM CST until November 16 at 3:04AM CST by NWS Little Rock AR 🚨
Additional Details Here.

NEW: #Sara has officially been named. It has winds of 40 mph and is about 50 miles offshore of the Honduras-Nicaragua border:

Rain moving into the area from the southwest. It'll last into evening.

Rain moving in. Dry times may be few into the evening.

Since we haven't had a wet commute in a while, please try not to drive as poorly as normal.

Much more sunshine arrives for Friday and the weekend, and temperatures stay generally within striking distance of mid-November normals. Coastal flooding continues to be a concern as well, especially this weekend. Details: chswx.com