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Fourth Turning Capital πŸ”Έ

@turtle4th.bsky.social

πŸ”Έ 10% Pledger

284 Followers  |  528 Following  |  1,297 Posts  |  Joined: 19.11.2024  |  1.9852

Latest posts by turtle4th.bsky.social on Bluesky

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β€˜Software margins had grown very wide recently and the endurance of those margins all the way to the financial horizon got priced into the stocks. That was never going to last.’ www.ft.com/content/d5fb... by @robarmstrong.bsky.social

13.02.2026 16:01 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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For my fellow policy wonks a look at the supercore. This is not exactly going to provide any relief over at the Fed, Treasury or the White House that looks at this metric. It also paints a portrait around why the public is not going to find much relief in a 2.4% topline or 2.5% core print. #Econ

13.02.2026 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

😳

11.02.2026 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€œ.. For every $1 the U.S. collects in taxes and tariffs, it will spend $1.33 this year.”

@wsj.com @scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

11.02.2026 23:45 β€” πŸ‘ 737    πŸ” 329    πŸ’¬ 40    πŸ“Œ 34

What's left? Private Education & Health Services (averaging ~60k/mo) accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025. Strip that out and the private sector was contracting by an average of -30k/mo.

11.02.2026 17:21 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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America's $1T AI Gamble US AI-Related Investment Keeps Breaking Records, With Total Software, Computer, & Data Center Spending Now Exceeding $1T Per Year

NEW from me:

Data center construction is up 300% since 2022. Imports of Taiwanese electronics are up 670%. Total US computer & software investment has shot up to $1T/yr

American companies are making an unprecedentedly large gamble on the success of AI 🧡
www.apricitas.io/p/americas-1...

10.02.2026 22:51 β€” πŸ‘ 196    πŸ” 50    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜The Mag Seven topped out vs the energy sector in December of 2025, at the same level it did back in October of 2020, when $XLE bottomed and ran 250% over the next two years.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

07.02.2026 15:25 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜The era of tech buybacks has ended.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/850 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social

07.02.2026 15:27 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Now I finally understand about the Bitcoin halving.

06.02.2026 01:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Peter Attia’s career was ruined by emails far less incriminating than this. Why is this not a bigger deal?

06.02.2026 01:35 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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GRIFFIN: β€œ.. most CEOs that I’m friends with, they find it incredibly distasteful. .. Most CEOs just don’t want to find themselves in the business of having to, in some sense, suck up to one administration after another to succeed in running their business.”

@wsj.com
www.wsj.com/business/ken...

05.02.2026 02:12 β€” πŸ‘ 436    πŸ” 106    πŸ’¬ 98    πŸ“Œ 29
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Billionaire GOP Mega-Donor Rips Trump Corruption: Been β€˜Very Enriching to the Families’ of Admin Officials - NewsBreak Billionaire GOP mega-donor and past Trump supporter Ken Griffin accused the Trump administration this week of corruption and warned that business leaders a

This is a big deal. Ken Griffin is an important guy to the GOP. @carlquintanilla.bsky.social

share.newsbreak.com/h4p03otd?s=i16

05.02.2026 11:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Our founders, though deeply flawed, understood that democracy requires an informed citizenry and a government accountable to it people. That’s why the press is the only profession protected by the Constitution. It’s also why autocrats and oligarchs seek to control and destroy it.

04.02.2026 20:58 β€” πŸ‘ 9922    πŸ” 3034    πŸ’¬ 143    πŸ“Œ 126

CAPITAL ECON: ".. ISM services prices paid index jumped back up to 66.6, up 1.5-points from 65.1 in December. While still below its three-year-high of 70.0 last October, the figure does imply that PCE core services ex-housing (aka 'supercore') inflation may remain above target for some time .."

04.02.2026 15:45 β€” πŸ‘ 77    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

The counter argument is that stocks have flatlined *because* of a stronger than expected real economy as that sucks liquidity out of the financial markets and into the real economy. Also, upward pressure on treasury yields. 10 yr has been rising October.

03.02.2026 11:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

bsky.app/profile/marc...

02.02.2026 23:40 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Stephan Guyenet just announced he’s leaving X. Let’s encourage him to join @bsky.app !

02.02.2026 18:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I have spoken with several senior FBI counterintelligence officers who believe that there is a reasonably strong prospect that Tulsi Gabbard is a foreign intelligence asset.

02.02.2026 13:52 β€” πŸ‘ 3127    πŸ” 1051    πŸ’¬ 238    πŸ“Œ 229
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β€œ.. The guidance comes after a 6 per cent drop in foreign visitors to the US last year ..”

@financialtimes.com $DIS
www.ft.com/content/5230...

02.02.2026 12:05 β€” πŸ‘ 586    πŸ” 192    πŸ’¬ 67    πŸ“Œ 28

This is the kind of fight we need from opposition leaders. Thank you Chicago!

02.02.2026 10:50 β€” πŸ‘ 779    πŸ” 230    πŸ’¬ 8    πŸ“Œ 3

One might even describe the Trump Administration as *weak*.

01.02.2026 20:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Gabbard’s role in Fulton raid highlights wild conspiracy theories fueling 2020 probe "She has neither the authority nor the competence to assess anything in that voting site," a voting advocate said of Gabbard.

Why was Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at the FBI’s raid of Fulton County’s main election operations center? It’s unclear.

But what is clear is that her appearance signals the administration intends to undermine democratic and electoral norms ahead of this year’s midterms.

01.02.2026 14:11 β€” πŸ‘ 582    πŸ” 245    πŸ’¬ 26    πŸ“Œ 13
Tom Morello - Intro + Killing In The Name Of
YouTube video by Kyle Matteson Tom Morello - Intro + Killing In The Name Of

youtu.be/LLMKAxFtjB8?...

01.02.2026 14:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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a bald man with a beard says well then ... ALT: a bald man with a beard says well then ...
01.02.2026 13:48 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The actual value of this one is that it’s splitting MAGA into anti Israel and pro Israel factions.

01.02.2026 13:43 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜Spy Sheikh’ Bought Secret Stake in Trump Company $500 million investment for 49% of World Liberty came months before U.A.E. won access to tightly guarded American AI chips.

Can someone in the Senate pls protect our national security?

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

01.02.2026 13:01 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Steve Levitsky, the co-author of How Democracies Die, on the dangerous place we have reached as Trump escalates:

β€œOrbΓ‘n doesn’t arrest journalists,” he said. β€œAnd in Hungary if you walk the streets of Budapest or other Hungarian cities, you will not find heavily armed masked men abducting people."

31.01.2026 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 722    πŸ” 335    πŸ’¬ 19    πŸ“Œ 26

Yes!!!!! πŸ‘

01.02.2026 12:32 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

He also said he picked Wash because he was good looking and β€œstraight out of central casting.”

01.02.2026 12:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
When Should We Stop AI? Former Google CEO On Pulling The Plug
YouTube video by Noema Magazine When Should We Stop AI? Former Google CEO On Pulling The Plug

youtu.be/lUErzvvKuaY?...

01.02.2026 12:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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