Jonathan Bernstein

Can Canada Survive Donald Trump? Under assault from an increasingly aggressive and authoritarian United States, the country’s future looks less secure than at any time in postwar history.

Gift Link// Whether the US's ongoing act of political suicide evolves as a murder-suicide is of more than passing interest to the US’s northern domestic partner. Canada is extremely -- uniquely -- vulnerable. I spoke to executives, defense analysts, others. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/feat...

Uh...never mind that last part.

Oooh forgot to wish a Happy Birthday to the great @dbernstein.bsky.social! Hope he's enjoying the Yankees game.

My item on this suggested that while it could be how inept Trump always is, what I suspect is going on is that the GOP has just lost the ability to talk to anyone outside their strongest supporters. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/underminin...

Ah, yes. That's possible, and I agree. (Of course it would also be incumbent on Republicans to oppose that! But not expecting that.)

Mazel Tov!

US military action is done with the American people’s money in the American people’s name, as is DOJ. The people’s elected representatives in Congress have oversight authority. They are 100% entitled to this info.

You know who doesn’t have to disclose legal advice? Personal attorneys and advisors.

I think we'll see a pretty good turnout for the No Kings protests here.

Find me when Collins's talking stick appears.

Oh I'm all for laughing at him.

Easy to laugh at the noisy announcement of undercover operation...but it's not so funny if the point isn't to infiltrate fictional "leftist terror cells" but to frighten and intimidate normal regular Democrats.

Fortunately, it's likely that it's just a campaign press release. But still.

Mazel Tov for being a good citizen.

You missed way too much bunting. Not the decorative type of bunting. The throwing away rallies bunting.

Still going strong well into his 70s!

bone fide/coincide is just so fun.

(Trying to fulfill the thing about being happy and rejoicing during the holiday despite, well, y'all know).

Also:

I made an American squirm/
And it feels so right

Trump may really think that tariffs are magic. But it's a good reminder that the rest of the GOP just doesn't believe in budgeting at all.

Outside of the legal issues....I think we're up to four different ways that the WH is allegedly spending each magic tariff dollar. (Funding WIC; bailing out farmers; offsetting a chunk of the tax cuts; reducing (ha!) the deficit). Maybe another or two more that I forgot.

Scoop: White House memo says furloughed federal workers aren't entitled to backpay A move to deny backpay to up to 750,000 furloughed workers would dramatically escalate Trump's pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown.

Are furloughed federal employees entitled to backpay?

The short answer is yes furloughed federal employees are entitled to backpay, but the mechanism a little complicated.

And, importantly, it means the House GOP CR is insufficient for reopening the govt & needs to be amended.

Thread explaining:

If Roberts is a Politician... We know that Trump wants to be an autocrat. Why is the Chief Justice allowing it?

If we think of Roberts as a GOP politician, does that help understand and perhaps predict what he's up to? A bit, maybe. My latest at GP/BP. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/if-roberts...

Mentions of "god" in official congressional e-newsletters, over time, by party

Why was there evidently a subpoena issued for the telephone records of Sen. Ron Johnson R-WI as part of the Jan. 6 investigation? Here is some of the evidence on the public record. 1/ 🧵

Charlie in the Marketplace Charlie Kirk was part of the right-wing marketplace I've written about for years. He fit right in.

… btw I wrote about Kirk as a right-wing marketplace huckster a few weeks ago:

open.substack.com/pub/goodpoli...

Lots of stuff can change depending on how popular the president might be. One example: Private orgs are a lot more likely to cooperate with a popular would-be despot than an unpopular one.

It's still early. As time goes on, this and other things will just get worse, and pressure will increase to make a deal...

...and unless the polling changes (which it could!), Republicans will feel the pressure even more than Dems...

...although Trump may be oblivious to any of that, so ????.

Congressional Democrats have moved on from the "chaos" frame in official e-newsletters

Elvis Costello:

Pay it Back (Stop)
Watching the Detectives (Start)
Waiting for the End of the World (Go)

I've only been to a handful of protests over the last few years (the first March for Our Lives, a couple BLM rallies) but I'm making a point of going to No Kings Day on October 18 because there's a chance it'll make a difference in the country's authoritarian trajectory. Don't RSVP, just go.

Chag Sukkot Sameach to all those celebrating!

No surprises; no shifts after the weekend. Dems certainly haven't been pressured by the polling...it's probably too early for either side to feel significant pressure from their constituents.

So welcome. One of the biggest unknowns for me post-election when calculating the national turnout rate is figuring out California’s turnout

This is such an important point: handling crime and street protests are things that require training on best practices. It’s difficult enough to find that on local police forces. ICE, Border Patrol, NG etc don’t have it—and usually have contradictory training and guidance.