Seth Warner

Whose Party Is This? Explaining Perceptions of US Party Ideology Abstract. How do Americans perceive the parties ideologically? Using a multiverse analysis of 720 models, I observe how citizens’ ideological placement of

🚨New publication in @poqjournal.bsky.social 📈

Americans see the Democrats as increasingly "liberal" and Republicans as "conservative."

Why? Turns out, it's not so much a response to actual policymaking as it is to how regular voters use these labels.

academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...

My new paper with the exquisite @polpsychjoe.bsky.social

Why are there so many protests? The US public is highly polarized, and that drives people to act Anger at the other side, as represented by the political party opposing yours, is a powerful motivator to engage in protests.

Was grateful to work with @us.theconversation.com to share my Social Forces piece with a broader audience. Some, fairly large part of protest today seems driven by partisan animosity, even on protest issues that are not explicitly partisan.

🚨 New working paper! 🚨

After the 2024 election, it seemed like Republicans' views of the economy improved more than Dems' dropped. I began to wonder... as an extension of issue ownership, do voters see Republican-led economies as better?

osf.io/preprints/os...

Thanks for reading! I think you're right, the animosity --> protest link is stronger in the US bc of the two party system. But I think partisan threat can make a difference anywhere. If Marine le Pen began talking up coal mining, I think many on the French left would join up w/ the green movement.

Lots of thanks to Social Forces for being great to work with, my dissertation committee for feedback, and Lee Ann Banaszak for an amazing grad seminar. I would not have thought to write about protest without it! Excited to see this in print! 😁

I also apply my trademark contextual polarization data (paper coming soon!) to protest participation. People in high-animosity environments protest quite a bit more than others, and hatred felt from "the other side" seems to be the driving factor. 3/

Using panel data from @pewresearch.org, I identify this pattern in the BLM, Tea Party, and climate action movements.

Participation in an environmental protest, in particular, is explained far more by hostility toward the GOP than concern about climate change. 2/

Partisan animosity and protest participation in the United States Abstract. In the United States, partisans are more likely to protest than other citizens. This study compares the relative strength of two explanations for

🚨 New research alert! 🚨

Excited to share the first paper from my dissertation, now online at Social Forces.

Headline: when looking at who protests, partisan animosity explains almost as much variation as *concern about the issues being protested.* 1/

academic.oup.com/sf/advance-a...

Liked this by accident no boo go Huskies 😠😄

Sharing my new, sadly timely WP with @polpsychjoe.bsky.social:

Do election outcomes impact affective polarization?

An RDD using close House, Senate, and state-level prez results from 1996-2020 says yes. Losers depolarize by losing faith in their own side. 😥

Read here: osf.io/preprints/os...

We thought the same thing and got *shriek* null results 😱😥

No, although that would've been good to run!

If you want to use the data and need those, I'd be happy to jiffy them up!

Down is less polarized, and I was wondering the same myself! 🤔

GitHub - sbwarner/ts_polarization: Recently, frequent survey questions about partisan affect in the ... Recently, frequent survey questions about partisan affect in the US have made it possible to study affective polarization using time series data. This compiles responses to two large projects, the ...

Yup, my mistake! Here you go...

github.com/sbwarner/ts_...

GitHub - sbwarner/ts_polarization: Recently, frequent survey questions about partisan affect in the ... Recently, frequent survey questions about partisan affect in the US have made it possible to study affective polarization using time series data. This compiles responses to two large projects, the ...

Oh no! Here is the real link haha...

github.com/sbwarner/ts_...

❗New data alert polisky❗

Daily time series of affective polarization in the US, between 2019 to 2023, drawn from responses to the Nationscape and America's Political Pulse studies.

T ~ 1,000

github.com/sbwarner/ts_...

Toward an Ideological Common Space: Extending Bonica’s CFscores to the Citizen Level - Political B... Bonica’s (Am J Polit Sci 58(2):367–386, 2014) campaign finance-based ideology scores, or CFscores, create an ideological common space that allows researchers to compare a wide variety of actors. B...

Greetings Polisky, excited to share my new piece at Political Behavior.

Key takeaway: we are just some bridge data away from having campaign finance ideology scores (CFscores) for *everyone*

State politics nerd takeaway: Do voters use ideology more in gubernatorial elections? Maybe not!

Having a dandy time teaching my research stats students about univariate regression. Polisky

Took a littttttle while, but my fellow Nutmegger came around.

Hope it went well today. New to this myself and other 3 comments are exactly my experience. Big class of 200 gets restless if I don't have one or two easy discussion prompts per lecture. Otherwise, be organized, and try to be natural... it's exhausting trying to break out of a "persona" after.

Does polisky have any favorite videos on the Constitution, Bill of Rights, civil rights, etc. to share with my intro class?

Guilty as charged

As promised, I'm a lover of cool research design. 😍

This one leaves repeated falsehoods by a prominent politician to view how opinion shifts with it over time. ✌️

Hey uhhh me too? I'm a political scientist 😃

Importing from the other site, but it applies here as well. As soon as I started following these rules, sometime before I articulated them in late ‘21, my experience online improved immensely.

Huh