Tim Andrews

Anfield ✊🔴 #LFC

Quick trip home to the #LakeDistrict 👌🏼

The online and open access version of these papers can be found here:

link.springer.com/collections/...

Got a call to visit the work post room as there was a parcel for me… (first time in 10+years!)

It was a book, sent to contributing authors I presume, of papers that came out of an ISSI workshop in 2022.

It’s easy to forget that journals often still have physical copies… a joy to flick through.

CMIP Community Workshop 2026 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will bring together a growing, and increasingly diverse, community of Earth system scientists, partners, and stakeholders. It

We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August:

wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20...
Session ID #4

YouTube video by Liverpool FC Our lad from Portugal. Forever | Diogo Jota

“… oh, his name is Diogo..” 💔

youtu.be/XQ5TA0F-dZc?...

Fantastic to have spent two days at Leeds discussing physical climate science with new and old colleagues. Looking forward to the opportunities ahead @earthandenvleeds.bsky.social.

And it’s great to be back where it all began 20 odd years ago as a student, but now on the other side of the fence…

I think there is some automated diagnostic effort now. Fairly sure Gregory plots are included in ESMValTool for cmip6 and for cmip7 it’s in the Rapid Evaluation Framework…

@mzelinka.bsky.social and I are being replaced by bots

Yep

help.ceda.ac.uk/article/4424...

I should clarify our physical model HadGEM will be. It might not be true for our earth system submission to CMIP7 e.g UKESM.

One CMIP iteration at a time. CMIP6 we solved the Dec 1st start date annoyance. CMIP7 (partly) the 360 day calendar.

Slowly but surely…. What do you want for CMIP8?

I should add a clarification that this might not be true for earth system submission to CMIP7 e.g UKESM. But the physical model HadGEM has moved to Gregorian.

Slowly but surely….

You’ll be pleased to hear that our next model for CMIP7 submission will use a Gregorian calendar…

Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme: Science Review and Advisory Group Members This advertisement is for the recruitment of up to four new members of the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme Science Advisory and Review Group. It is posted on behalf of The UK Department for...

The @metoffice.gov.uk Hadley Centre is a powerhouse of climate science. If you'd like to help guide their program of work, please consider joining their Science Review and Advisory Group. There has never been a more important time to stand up for science !

🧪🌍🌡️

www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/app...

Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy...

Happy to share our paper in ‪@science.org‬ 'Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models' | Science www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Almost as bad as his Covid estimates

Looks a good read:

The Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Effect on Outgoing Longwave Radiation: The Role of Large-Scale Convective Aggregation

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting:

🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change

🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance

🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will be held in Kyoto, Japan from 9-13th March 2026. The call for abstracts for CMIP26 is now open! Find out more at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip26-call-...

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will be held in Kyoto, Japan from 9-13th March 2026. The call for side sessions for CMIP26 is now open! Find out more at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip26-side-...

Global climate predictions show temperatures expected to remain at or near record levels in coming five years The latest prediction of global climate [issued today, Wednesday 28 May 2025] suggests the average global temperature is likely to continue to reach record or near-record levels in the coming five yea...

The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update published today by Met Office and the WMO shows that global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average last year for the first time

bit.ly/43CHLGJ

I've got a Wren in my garden today too

Time series showing growing Earth energy imbalance (greater heating) this century

Earth's energy imbalance needs to decline to stabilise global temperatures but it is growing

The doubling of the rate of global heating in recent decades has surprised the scientific community so needs to be better understood yet our capability to measure Earth's energy imbalance is at risk: doi.org/10.1029/2024...

Or "two-model model with/without ε" if we're at that level. I agree "εBM" would be nice!

Speaking of which, that is probably the most confusing name we have, i.e. "ocean heat uptake efficiency" versus "efficacy of ocean heat uptake". Many have sailed into those rocks...

I think we just say "the two-layer model". That is usually sufficiently from context. But sometimes we insert "two-layer ^energy balance^ model" if required.

- Agreed
- Agreed
- I don't think anyone this side of the pond calls it the Held two-layer model... ;-)

A Robust Constraint on the Response of Convective Mass Fluxes to Warming Convective mass fluxes robustly decrease with warming, at around 3−5 $3-5$%K−1 ${\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$, when viewed in temperature coordinates The weakening in temperature coordinates is explained by...

Anyone interested in learning about a first principles, quantitative theory for convective mass flux in a warming world?

Read the paper and/or come to my EGU talk on Thursday! :)

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

🔴✊ #LFC #YNWA

youtube.com/shorts/zVe7b...

YouTube video by Liverpool FC 🏟️ This Is Anfield.

Anfield awaits 🔴✊ #LFC

youtube.com/shorts/87III...

Circulation and Cloud Responses to Patterned SST Warming Direct warming of ascent regions leads to their areal contraction while warming in regions of descent has little effect on ascent fraction We develop a metric relating near-surface and free tropo...

Hot off the press! New GRL paper from our group, led by Anna Mackie: Circulation and Cloud Responses to Patterned SST Warming @agu.org @uniofstandrews.bsky.social

doi.org/10.1029/2024...

I liked the preceding sentence: "... Machine learning is not a plug-and-play technology for scientists but a set of methods that require deep expertise and continual training....".

I fear far too many use the former and skip the latter...