Kyle Saunders

osf.io/preprints/ps...

Re-upping this thread about our newly-accepted paper today, since, well, you know, there's a #government #shutdown going on...

Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied:
— Murphy’s approval rating is -10
— Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents

Reasons why Sherrill is still favored:
— 72% of undecided voters are women
— 62% of undecideds are Harris voters
— 18% of Black voters are undecided

so, if you're interested, here's the preprint link one more time!

osf.io/preprints/ps...

3/

Given recent events and another government shutdown just days away, this underscores why one-size-fits-all messaging often fails and sentiment alone can’t predict how people act under political risk.

2/
This means that disaffected Americans might make riskier decisions when they think there's something to gain, but they avoid risk when objectively equivalent choices are negatively framed--the opposite of what most people do.

1/ Prospect theory says most people are risk-averse, but framing matters and fear of “losing out” pushes us toward risky choices. In two experiments on government shutdown debates in Congress, we find Need for Chaos moderates these gain/loss framing effects.

Here's the title page/abstract for "Mindset to Gain? Framing Effects, Need for Chaos, and the Limits of 'Burning It All Down'", preprint link above:

New (very timely!) paper with Erin Fitz, @stecula.bsky.social,
@matthewhitt.bsky.social & myself, accepted at Behavioural Public Policy entitled "Mindset to Gain? Framing Effects, Need for Chaos, and the Limits of 'Burning It All Down'"--a thread and a link:

osf.io/preprints/ps...

What former lawmakers reveal about the strain on American democracy | Brookings There is a divergence in how current and former lawmakers talk about the issues facing American democracy.

My comments w
@agtheodoridis.bsky.social on unique survey of former members of Congress, which indicates how far views of former GOP officeholders differ from Republican electorate on democratic norms @BrookingsGov www.brookings.edu/articles/wha...

Manuscript accepted!
Manuscript rejected!
(Same day.)

Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories? - Political Behavior A sizable literature tracing back to Richard Hofstadter’s The Paranoid Style (1964) argues that Republicans and conservatives are more likely to believe conspiracy theories than Democrats and liberals...

Is Belief in Conspiracies Theories More Prevalent Among Republicans and Conservatives? A recent article in @polbehavior.bsky.social ‬by Enders, Farhart, Miller, Uscinski, Saunders, and Drochon finds the answer is no: link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#polisky 🧵(1/7)

Read the Charges Against Tyler Robinson (Gift Article) Robinson will be charged with aggravated murder, an offense that is eligible for the death penalty, according to Jeff Gray, the Utah County attorney.

reading the charges/preliminary evidence against Tyler Robinson...will not make your day.

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

When people tell you who they are, believe them.

shooting people is bad

NYT: Of the 30 states that track voter registration by political party (not including Texas, btw), Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.

🔴 Republicans: +2.4M
🔵 Democrats: -2.1M

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/u...

You mostly want your academic work to be relevant...and then...welp... (with @erinfitz.bsky.social)

academic.oup.com/poq/article/...

Historic NCAA House Settlement Approved as More Legal Issues Await U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken has granted final approval to the House settlement, a move that means direct pay for some D-I college athletes.

Huge Sports Law News: Judge Wilken approves the House settlement. A major victory for the NCAA and the big time college sports industry. But it's not the end of the story for athlete legal issues, as other litigation--including Title IX and employment cases--awaits. Here's what you need to know:

Elitism versus Populism Cambridge Core - American Studies - Elitism versus Populism

"Any speculation about the causes of the decline in trust in elites must grapple with the possibility that many elites are not particularly trustworthy... Elite failure has led even harsh critics of populism to recognize that there is at least some truth to populist complaints"

Link to @axios.com coverage: www.axios.com/2025/05/16/b...

My thoughts below. We have to be better than this.

Bertrand Russell's Ten Commandments
The best answer to fanaticism? *Actual* Liberalism.
The best mode of error correction? *Actual* Liberalism.
I've had a copy of this on the wall by my desk for over 25 years.

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet jumps into governor’s race, saying he wants “to forge a better politics” U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet feels he’d be “better situated as the governor to help us provide a view of what this future is going to look like, from the state of Colorado, than I would be …

More:

Bitcoin is powered by chaos. -Michael Saylor

Well, I've found the new epigram for our new bitcoin politics book.

Very proud to announce that my PhD student @erinfitz.bsky.social has been awarded not one, but three(!) sources of dissertation support from NSF, Rapoport, & @electoralintegrity.bsky.social to complete her dissertation research on the domains of risk and trust re: political participation in the US!

Answering 20 Questions About House Settlement Final Hearing Monday is a historic day in college sports as Judge Wilken hears arguments about whether to approve the House settlement. Major issues are at stake.

Today is a historic day for college sports. Judge Wilken will review the House antitrust settlement. If she approves it, colleges can directly pay players, who will still get full scholarships and NIL deals.

It's a brave new world.

I answer 20 key questions for @sportico.bsky.social:

Participated in a roundtable today about Kate Krimmel’s great book Divergent Democracy. It was well-timed for the current intra-Dem fighting online abt the right degree of nuance to adopt in their tariff response—just as the economy tanks.

The party is truly neurotically pilled on programmaticism!