Cullen Hendrix

Charades, BoP edition.

This is a really good post. If the 122 tariffs were really about a balance of payments crisis equities and bond markets would not be nearly as sanguine.

If you aren't already following @mclem.org, it's well worth your while. Foremost person I know working on the economics of immigration and immigration enforcement, a great guy, and my @piie.com colleague. Best of luck at Hopkins!

Daaaaamn my man! This is awesome news all around. JHU is so fortunate to have you joining the fold! @piie.com

"Diversification at scale requires allies to accept near-term costs [...] But for the first time in decades, US political stability and policy continuity are themselves part of those allies’ risk calculations."
must read

Map showing tens of thousands of protests across the US between Trump's inauguration last year and January 31, 2026.

The volume & geographic distribution of protest nationwide during year 1 of Trump's second term was extraordinary.

You don't revoke scientific findings. You revoke those findings informing official US policy. Reality has not changed.

For example, in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.'

"Hegseth's Pentagon gives CBP an anti-drone laser and they almost immediately misuse it to fire on a child's party balloon, shutting down local airspace," would be rejected as a side plot in Veep for being too unrealistic and too on the nose as a metaphor.

For non-academics, this is exactly what people mean when they mock these centers as "DEI for conservative viewpoints": there isn't a snowball's chance in hell this record gets you an assistant professorship at a regional comprehensive, much less a flagship R1, without a 800-ton thumb on the scale.

As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap? Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...

The #BRICS have the least tangible but perhaps most important assets for tackling the growing food security gap: skin in the game and something to prove on the global stage.

Both provide strong incentives to step up as advanced economies retreat from food aid.

‘One officer told me that I "had no chance of returning to Minnesota" and that "the best thing for (me] is self-deportation." …
She offered me $2600 to self-deport.
I refused.
I wanted to talk to my attorney.
They didn't tell me the judge had already ordered my release and return to Minnesota.’

Can we talk about how incredible it is that Norway - with a population roughly that of Minnesota - just dominates the Winter Olympics?

Is the US posing a hidden risk in the West’s critical minerals strategy? The Trump administration’s recent official guidance on supply chain vulnerabilities related to critical minerals reached a striking conclusion. US policymakers are acknowledging that the United States...

The US seeks price floors with allies to build ex-China mineral supply chains.

If US allies and trading partners start pricing US political risk alongside Chinese leverage, Western minerals coordination will get much harder to sustain.

My latest at @piie.com.

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Satirical campaign poster contrasting Jimmy Carter's focus on energy efficiency vs. Ronald Reagan's America strong rhetoric.

One of my first memories of @theonion.com

happening this morning in Minneapolis -- ICE agents drawing guns on observers. I reiterate again that it is only a matter of time before DHS kills more innocent people in Minnesota. Congress needs to shut this shit down right now.

As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap? Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...

BRICS+ have the strongest incentive of all: something to prove.

Stepping up on food security would let them show they can provide real global public goods — and reshape how the Global South sees leadership in a moment of geoeconomic fragmentation and competition.

www.piie.com/publications...

5/5

But science alone isn’t enough.

Regulation, public trust, and geopolitics will determine whether these tools actually reach the people who need them most: producers of orphaned crops, subsistence farmers facing increasing drought and water insecurity, etc.

4/5

Countries like Brazil, India, and China have built serious capacity in crop science, seed development, and climate-resilient agriculture that could matter far beyond their borders.

3/5

The picture is even worse for acute hunger: people facing near-term catastrophe/starvation if relief is not forthcoming. In 2017, 124 million people faced those conditions. By 2025, that number had more than doubled to 319 million—nearly the population of the United States (figure 2). Virtually all of these people live in developing economies, and nearly 70 percent live in conflictaffected and fragile states (WFP 2025a).

For decades, wealthy countries' food aid was a backbone of emergency response.

That role is shrinking: the US is in retreat, other AEs increasing spending on defense.

Meanwhile, hunger risks are rising with climate shocks, conflict, and population growth.

Who will step in? And how?

2/5

As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap? Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...

What happens to global food security if U.S. food aid keeps retreating?

Our new @piie.com brief looks at a transformative possibility: the gap may be filled not by traditional donors — but by BRICS+ countries and biotechnology.

www.piie.com/publications...

1/5

Trump Had Unusual Call With F.B.I. Agents After Election Center Search

Holy shit. Not only was Tulsi Gabbard present for the raid on Georgia's election center, she called Trump and put him on speaker phone to the FBI agents conducting the raid! (Gift link)

I was just hearing the other day that there is a nationwide coke and fentanyl shortage.

Oh, wait.

“Cocaine sold in the U.S. is cheaper and as pure as ever for retail buyers,” reports the WSJ.

It's whack-a-mole at best.

Was on a meeting earlier today where someone suggested the next administration not walk back these deals. My comment was "what deals, exactly?"

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Talking with Chad Bown

Huge thanks to @pkrugman.bsky.social for the invite to be on the show — really fun conversation on all things trade policy, tariffs, and global weirdness.

Also confirming for family record-keeping purposes: this is indeed my “talking to a Nobel Laureate” face.

This is great news (at least in short term): I have a Tacoma and the biggest concerns about going electric have been towing range and fear of getting stranded in the wilderness. This goes a long way to solving the latter. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

As US food aid retreats, can BRICS+ and biotechnology fill the world’s food security gap? Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many...

NEW: Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural R&D & have to depend on themselves—& one another—to meet rising food needs. @cullenhendrix.bsky.social argues that BRICS+ are well positioned to fill the world’s food security gap.

Since 2017 progress combatting hunger has stalled. It's set to get even harder.

Climate shocks and conflict are driving up hunger while food aid from advanced economies — especially the US — has pulled back.

Can BRICS+ countries and biotech innovation step in to fill it?

My latest for @piie.com.

No money for any of this. That has to be the line.

Anti-ICE protesters are following same nonviolent playbook used by people in war zones across the world to fight threats to their communities Americans are learning and doing the kind of work that civilians in war zones worldwide have done for decades: dealing with threats by organizing to help protect their neighbors and communities.

Great new piece by @oliverkaplan.bsky.social on the tools and strategies protesters are using in Minnesota, and how they are part of a toolkit used widely by communities in war zones.

theconversation.com/anti-ice-pro...