James David Griffiths

I imagine that the Welsh and Scottish would be very surprised to hear that the English aren't allowed to mention 1966...

Of the 'less obvious' options, Fat Dog was incredible. Orla Gartland was also incredible, but I don't think that will be on iPlayer

Congratulations!!

Wales Fiscal Analysis: immediate response to rail funding announcement for Wales Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 Ymateb i'r cyhoeddiad am gyllid rheilffyrdd i Gymru gan dîm Dadansoddi Cyllid Cymru 🚝

🚨 Our Wales Fiscal Analysis team’s response to today’s rail funding announcement for Wales 🚝

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

The World This Weekend - Reform UK: how other parties react to a changing political landscape - BBC Sounds The changing geology of UK politics: how the other parties combat the surge of Reform UK.

I spoke to BBC Radio 4's Jim Naughtie yesterday on The World This Weekend.

If you want to understand the long-term context for why British politics is becoming more fragmented - why party choice is splintering - here's what I said:

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

@britishelectionstudy.com

What do we want? Everything. When do we want it? Right now! It turns out that we voters may be to blame for the UK’s short-termism

Great write up of their fascinating research on the different time horizons of politicians and voters by @qmpoliticsir.bsky.social's finest, @philipjcowley.bsky.social , @mbarnfield.bsky.social and @karlpike.bsky.social

Reform UK and Plaid Cymru vie for gains in Labour stronghold of Wales Plummeting support for Keir Starmer’s party points to impact of some policies that have proven highly unpopular

@jaclarner.bsky.social from the Welsh Election Study: “Looking at the areas now voting Reform, they’re the same areas that always voted Labour, and it’s very easy to just make the logical mistake to assume it’s the same people doing it. That isn’t what we see” #Senedd26
www.ft.com/content/668f...

Looking at this, we might not have gone far enough by stopping at vote! Really cool (albeit worrying) research

We based our definition of the blocs on how the public perceive Labour, and they still clearly saw them as part of the left-liberal bloc on immigration and Europe in 2024.

Might have changed now though - and that will matter for their support!

We base that claim on the very low proportion of people who consider Brexit (or things related directly to Europe) to be the most important issue. We show Britain in the graph below, but it is very similar in each nation.

Unlike 2019, Brexit just isn't a priority for most voters.

The devolution debate dividing the Welsh Tories How a row over whether candidates can say they dislike devolution is causing drama in the Tories.

Interesting piece on one of the enduring ideological divides within the Welsh Conservative party: the #devolution question.

IIRC - as recently as 2005 a vote on abolishing devolution (as part of a multi question referendum that would also include more powers) was party policy #senedd

Thank you, and thanks for your suggestions at EPOP!

What an extremely relevant graph for what happened yesterday

While I totally understand this complaint, the dynamics behind Brexit do still play an important role in Scotland (albeit one that's moderated by independence, of course). Also, while England dominates the demographics of Britain, let's not forget about Wales!

I'm sure that's true! But for most people, even most of those who want to rejoin, it isn't thought of as a priority relative to other policy concerns

SES @scotvoting.bsky.social annual lecture by @profjanegreen.bsky.social

2 mins in and we've got a neat graph

#winning

Here you go! From this paper that was published today!
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...

People really do not want to go back to talking about Brexit - so it might be difficult for politicians to connect it to their more immediate concerns (economy, health, immigration)

Love this, UK Politics as Mean Girls...

That's a good point but, given the current structure of the British electorate, I'd expect most disaffected Tories to be (generally) more open to switching to Reform than Labour - and changing that would really alienate Labour among their left-liberal core (who have LD, Greens, Plaid to go to)

Great! If there's anything more you'd like to know, please let us know!

The paper may be of interest to @stephenkb.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @samfr.bsky.social @matthewholehouse.bsky.social @paulbrand.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @benansell.bsky.social @luketryl.bsky.social

(Sorry if you've seen it!)

Britain has one of most difficult voter registration processes, report finds UK system makes it a ‘real outlier’ among liberal democracies, according to study examining 62 countries

UK has a comparatively difficult registration process.

Our comparative analysis of registration difficulty in 62 countries is timely as Labour consider introducing automatic voter registration.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

This graph shows vote by Brexit preferences in 2019 (I should have clarified!), but if we look at those who couldn't vote in 2019 we see that their votes follow what we'd expect later in the paper (mostly Rejoin, with Labour being the largest party and significant minorities going LD and Green).

Like ratings for the major political parties by pre-referendum/pre-election vote intention in 2016, 2019, and 2024, excluding the party that someone said they'd vote for

BONUS GRAPH
In 2024, Reform voters strongly disliked Labour – and vice versa.

Supporters of other left-liberal parties also disliked Reform.

It seems hard for Labour to make Reform voters like them (if they even could) without alienating their current or potential base…

In short, 2024 was volatile, but Brexit preferences (and related demographics) still shape support – now for party blocs!

Blocs are important because voters may switch parties, but their choices are limited. This shapes who parties can attract or risk losing if they chase new voters…

Vote choice for the left-liberal and right-conservative blocs among the four constitutional camps in Scotland (Yes/Remain, Yes/Leave, No/Remain, and No/Leave). Most Remain voters are aligned on Brexit, whereas Leave voters are less so (but still mostly aligned) due to independence.

Things are different in Scotland due to independence, but Brexit still helps structure vote choice.
Remain voters are closely aligned on Brexit, regardless of their position on independence.
No voters are less aligned (particularly the very small # of Yes/Leave), which independence helps explain.

Vote choice for the left-liberal and right-conservative blocs by age in 2015, 2017, 2019, and 2024. Most young people back left-liberal parties in each era (but particularly post-Brexit) and most older people back right-conservative parties (but particularly post-Brexit). Labour has lost support among younger people, but they went mostly to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Conservatives have lost support to everyone, but they mostly went to Reform.

This switching meant that the factors underpinning Brexit (age, education) predict support for party bloc.

Younger voters still overwhelmingly back left-liberal parties (fewer back Labour, more Greens in 2024), while older voters still back right-conservative parties. Same story for education.

This matters as voters tend to back parties ‘within’ their bloc rather than ‘between’ their blocs.

Over 25% of voters switched parties to a new party ‘within’ their bloc – one left-liberal party to another (e.g. Labour > Greens) or one right-conservative party to another (mostly Cons > Reform).

Mean perceived positions of political parties on redistribution, (left-right), EU integration, and immigration (liberal-authoritarian), in 2019 and 2024 in Britain. Redistribution: 0: Government should try to make incomes equal; 10: Government should be less concerned about equal incomes. Immigration: 0: Many fewer; 10: Many more (we flip the order so that both scales move from 0 = support, 10 = oppose). EU Integration: 0: Unite fully with the European Union; 10: Protect our independence.

Brexit no longer matters to voters, but they still separate the political parties into blocs that match their Brexit positions.

Looking at redistribution and immigration, voters separate the parties into ‘right-conservative’ (Tories, Reform) and ‘left-liberal’ (Labour/LDs/Greens) blocs.