James David Griffiths

I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...

🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?

Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social

Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!

Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!

UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).

There's so much useful info in them.

The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?

Read on for our answer...

@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.

Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.

The 2024 UK General Election in Wales That Labour emerged victorious from the 2024 UK General Election in Wales must count among the least surprising political outcomes imaginable. It has, afte

NEWYDD - @jaclarner.bsky.social a minnau ar Etholiad 2024 yng Nghymru

NEW - Jac Larner and myself on the 2024 UK GE in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

2024 UK General Election in Wales url: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...

It is all so pathetic too. What do they mean look more like London? The image they're invoking doesn't exist and nor would a mayor have the individual power to create a city in the mould that they imagine. Utter racist nonsense.

It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!

You'd probably need polls of the big paired constituencies that are being used for the Senedd election, as at a certain point tactical voting might be more important in some seats than others when it comes to who gets the 6th seat in each

It feels like scrambling for an excuse that allows them to keep their heads in the clouds, without thinking through what they're actually saying

It would be interesting, but maybe difficult to test in isolation? As it isn't just the poll that people are responding too (I'd expect), but the politicians' responses, the media coverage etc, which is so hard to replicate in a survey experiment

The deep disrespect for devolution that exists among some in the Labour Party...

I'd think that that's going to be important in the age of MRP in a FPTP context, but what do you think about its influence in a more proportional system, like the one that Wales will use in 2026?

"We'd have won if not for those pesky polls"

Claiming Lab > Plaid switching is just about Reform is really unhelpful to Labour. Unhappy Labour voters have switched to Plaid in elections long before Reform (or UKIP) were on the scene.

And the rubbish about YouGov 🤯

labourhub.org.uk/2025/10/28/c...

If Labour’s takeaway from Caerphilly is ‘we’d have won but for anti-Reform tactical voting,’ they’re in for a rude awakening in May.

Even if true, how does that narrative help? Voters have a viable alternative, so waiting for them to return doesn't seem a good idea?

labourlist.org/2025/10/wayn...

By-elections are always tough for incumbents, but this one (and national polls) show how badly Welsh Labour are struggling.

With the new proportional Senedd system making Plaid Cymru even more viable for disappointed Labour voters who reject Reform, we can expect plenty of within-bloc switching.

Some personal news

Who is Voting Reform? And Why? The who, what, when, how and huh of why Reform has gained so much support in such a short period of time

I've done deep-dive into latest @britishelectionstudy.com wave to explain rise of Reform:

- Who are their voters? (pretty working-class)
- What do they care about? (immigration)
- What do they want? (lower immigration)
- Plus why I think "accommodation doesn't work" needs more nuance

🧵 of results

Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...

Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.

Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Football as a weapon of soft power: The beautiful game hiding the ugly truth

Every year around this time, I get requests from students doing their Baccalauréat Francais International for help with their projects on sport and soft power.

All started from a conversation with @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social which led to me quickly writing this short blog a few years ago.

Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.

To add to the interest of the Welsh election, there is an expanded Senedd and new electoral system in 2026!

Of wider relevance, polling from Wales suggests what can happen when Labour has a viable alternative on their left flank, given that people are more volatile now.

Now to try and get tickets for Feb...

Infinite Source is also a banger off that album imo

Labour has been the largest party in Wales since 1922 (the longest success streak in any democracy).

That looks set to change in the next election, unless something incredibly dramatic happens.

This change is seismic on its own, but Labour should take heed for what it means for Westminster too.

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters? The who, what, when, how and huh of why Labour has lost so much support in such a short period of time

What Happened to Labour's 2024 Voters?

Using the recent wave of the @britishelectionstudy.com I look at people who voted Labour in 2024:
- How many are still with the party?
- How many have left?
- Why might that be?

TLDR: they've left because of economic issues/concerns, probably.