James David Griffiths

Things continue to go badly for Labour By Stephen Fisher, 27 February 2026 Yesterday Labour lost the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election. This was a constituency were they took 50.8% of the vote at the 2024 general ele…

New post by me on how and why support for Labour has dropped since the general election, and how the Green by-election win yesterday increases the chances of a Reform majority at the next GE because tactical coordination failure on the left is now more likely.

electionsetc.com/2026/02/27/t...

Thanks Dan!

You can submit your proposal here!

www.britishelectionstudy.com/submit-your-...

We also have relative propensity to vote/like scores, which might help in the meantime?

Great to speak with @meganekenyon.bsky.social of @newstatesman1913.bsky.social on location about the result in Gorton and Denton, including the role of party blocs!

Clipped my bit below, but you can watch the whole video here (bonus, there is a cat!):
youtu.be/dUh_1XuAg-g?...

Here's a table in the new @britishelectionstudy.com book (forthcoming). We calculated 'second preferences' - here Labour voters after elections 2015 to 2024.

50% of Labour's 2024 voters had Greens as second preference. 42% the Lib Dems. The left bloc is coalescing behind the most viable left party!

🚨New article in @electoralstudies.bsky.social🚨

New method using open-text survey, parliament speech analysis & conjoint experiment to detect policies/issues where all of:
1) bottom-up public demand
2) elites are neglecting it
3) would motivate vote choice if party adopt it

tinyurl.com/44ryyybc

🧵

'Avoiding the iceberg' - LabourList Labour’s polling crisis isn’t about Reform voters but losing progressives. To avoid electoral collapse, the party must clarify its values and unite its bloc.

Good to see Labour politicians talking about blocs!

labourlist.org/2026/01/avoi...

If you want to know more, you can read our article introducing the idea in Britain here: academic.oup.com/pa/article/7...

Also Green and Miori's excellent work here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Reform are still toxic to many voters in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿. Too right-wing for most Labour voters, too British for most SNP voters

That leaves them just taking votes off Tories, who already get fewer votes in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 than 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 or 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

Scotland isn't a "no-go" zone, but Reform's voters will mostly be from the British/Right

This graph from @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social et al's paper (free to read!) academic.oup.com/pa/article/7... - shows within bloc switching was higher than across bloc switching in 2015, 2017 and 2024:

🧵 Thread on new research on gender gaps in “don’t know” responses

Some of you will know that my stellar coauthors @hannahbunting.bsky.social @cerifowler.bsky.social @jess-smith.bsky.social @annasanders.bsky.social & I have been working on a large-scale project on “don’t know” responses in surveys.

For those interested, raw data download is here along with some basic cross tabs: github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

Right let's breakdown this new poll for Wales because there is a lot going on below the headline figures.

[Thread]

In England, the Lib Dems and Greens are absolutely benefiting from the same trend.

The Lib Dems don't really have a big presence in Wales, but the Greens are also growing in Wales (to a lesser extent that Plaid, but more so among the fewer left/British people I think)

Raw data here!

github.com/jaclarner/Ca...

Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

👇👇Upcoming Senedd elections look set to break the mould of Welsh party politics and rock UK Labour. To understand the ‘made in Wales’ and UK influences on this ‘within bloc’ realignment read @jaclarner.bsky.social & @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social 👇👇

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

In short, Labour is on track for a historic loss, but this is happening because of movement *within* Wales's electoral blocs, not *between* them.

Labour's biggest losses are to Plaid Cymru, not Reform (who are growing from Tory losses).

Long way to go, but Labour are in a really tough place in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

The most common reasons that Lab > Plaid switchers give for their switch concern the ability to stand up for Wales and beating Reform.

Labour’s strategy has alienated its core voters, and unlike at UK level it can’t rely on “stop Reform” messaging: many now see Plaid as the better option for that.

Similarly, Reform UK has consolidated the British/right vote

Reform's rise is at the expense of the Conservatives, not Labour!

These trends are similar to the rest of GB, as Labour are mostly losing voters on their left flank - what's specific to Wales is that Plaid is now seen as the best option

Graph showing support for the Welsh/left bloc and British/right bloc by national identity in 2021 and 2025. Labour has lost basically all support among Welsh identifiers to Plaid, whereas the Tories have lost the support of British identifiers to Reform

Welsh elections have long been structured into a Welsh/left bloc and a British/right bloc.

Despite the huge changes in 2021, most switching is within (not between) blocs

Labour previously got the most support from the Welsh/left, but since 2025 they've lost lots of these voters to Plaid Cymru.

Consolidation, Not Conversion: Understanding Wales’s Ongoing Realignment Showcasing current research, comments and analysis on the law, politics, history, culture, government and political economy of Wales from the Wales Governance Centre.

🚨 NEW BLOG

Labour have won every election in Wales for 100 years, but they are on track to (badly) lose the 2026 Senedd election - why?

@jaclarner.bsky.social and I have looked at new data, which shows how support is shifting within (not between) Wales's blocs!

blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/thinking-wal...

Considering Reform’s Potential ‘Ceiling’ - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

Are Reform at their ceiling?

@martamiori.bsky.social and I explored @britishelectionstudy.com data and found a high % of May 2025 Con voters could switch.

We think it depends on intensity of preference and right-bloc party viability.

Link here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/cons...

Britain’s Quiet Electoral Earthquake - Nuffield Politics Research Centre

In this short piece (also in PSA Insights this issue), @martamiori.bsky.social and I explain the bloc structure in what’s happening in GB electoral politics and why this matters. Nice and simple summary here:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/opinion/brit...

I reckon you'll qualify out of that group. So envious of you being able to sit back and plan your trip, rather than having to wait until March for a slight hope...

🚨New article🚨 What do people want from political leaders in times of crisis, and are those preferences gendered?

Interested? Then check out our new Electoral Studies paper @jess-smith.bsky.social @viktorv.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social @hannahbunting.bsky.social @carolineleicht.bsky.social

Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!

Llongyfarchiadau / congratulations!!

UK politics followers, these graphs are in a paper by @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and co (inc. me).

There's so much useful info in them.

The long-term context for the politics of our time, how the 'Brexit elections' differed, though note the Y axes may need to be bigger for the next election!!

NEW! How should Labour respond to the two key issues to voters of the economy and immigration and what are the electoral stakes this week of the budget?

Read on for our answer...

@nprcoxford.bsky.social @jrf-uk.bsky.social

🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇

Excellent blog, and equally excellent metaphor, on Caerphilly.

Welsh Labour really do have a mountain to climb ahead of May, and ignoring it won't make it easier.