Mitch Tobin

And here's the Winter Storm Severity Index for the next three days, showing where impacts are expected to be greatest.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wss...

Here's a 72-hour snow accumulation map from the Colorado Climate Center based on data from the Weather Prediction Center.

climate.colostate.edu/ski-dashboar...

Some impressive snowfall totals are in the forecast. The West's snowpack could sure use it.

The map below, via Pivotal Weather, shows the projected 48-hour accumulation from the National Weather Service.

home.pivotalweather.com

All of the reasons Colorado's horrible snowpack is so problematic Snow showers in this week’s forecast offer a dose of relief, but they won’t be enough to get the Colorado out of a tough, dry year.

It's incredibly thin in the high country, and here's a really great analysis on what this dismal #Colorado snowpack could mean down the line. A quintet of @coloradosun.com reporters teamed up to break down concerns across the state. #water #drought

map of Colorado snowpack as a percent of the 1991-2020 median from the University of Arizona dataset. Statewide, it's 32.5% of median.

Time series of Colorado snow water equivalent for all years from 1982-2026. This year is the lowest in that timeframe, at 32% of the 1991-2020 median.

if the Colorado snowpack numbers from SNOTEL stations (52% of median) aren't low enough for you, they get even worse when looking at data across all elevations. Using the University of Arizona's SWE dataset, we're now below one-third of the usual snowpack (32.5%) as of February 9. #cowx

Western U.S. snowpack is worth trillions of dollars Putting a price tag on the water stored in the region’s high-elevation frozen reservoir

How much is the West’s snowpack worth?

I dug into research that puts a price tag on the water stored in snow—and projects how climate change will alter that value.

Snow also sustains ecosystems and economies while supporting winter recreation and cooling the planet.

waterdesk.org/2026/02/west...

How does this year compare to the snow droughts of the past? - Colorado Climate Blog Colorado’s mountain snowpack is in bad shape this year. It’s been extremely warm, and snowstorms have been few and far between. Based on data from the SNOTEL network, the amount of water stored in the...

The mountain snowpack so far this winter is in bad shape. Long-time Coloradans might remember two other terrible winters for snow: 1976-77 and 1980-81. Our latest blog post takes a look at how this year compares to those snow droughts of the past. #cowx

WA’s snowpack sits at the third-lowest level in the last 40 years Washington's snowpack sits at its third-lowest level in generations. There's still time this winter for more snow, but current trends aren’t bringing optimism.

Buckle up, folks. Looks like we're in for a doozy.

www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...

How are we doing on snowfall this season in the Contiguous U.S. through January? Well, it's the lowest combined total thru Jan since 1943-44. While places in the South and East that average 5" to 20" have done pretty well, most everyplace out West (MUCH higher averages), have had little to no snow.

Thanks so much, Anthony! I'm a big fan of your work, and I'm grateful to have you as a subscriber.

More grim news about the West's snow drought:

🛰️ Lowest Feb. 1 snow cover in the satellite record (since 2001)

📉 Record-low Feb. 1 statewide snowpack in Oregon, Colorado, and Utah

⚠️ “A Dry, Warm January Leaves the West With the Worst Snowpack in Decades”

www.drought.gov/drought-stat...

WATER DESK: Western U.S. snowpack is worth trillions of dollars Putting a price tag on the water stored in the region’s high-elevation frozen reservoir By Mitch Tobin, The Water Desk The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons. Snowmelt supplies much...

The American West’s snowpack is valuable for many reasons, but can its worth be calculated in dollars and cents? And how is climate change affecting that value? #cawater mavensnotebook.com/2026/02/05/w...

Graph showing the NOAA Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's forecasts of April to July inflows to Lake Powell from 1991 to 2026, with colored lines showing how each season's forecast evolved from January through July. The latest Forecast, February 2026, is the lowest outlook for this time of year since at least 1991.

Given the latest NOAA CBRFC inflow forecast for Lake Powell, I dusted off this plot from my Twitter days and updated it.

The Feb 1st outlook for Colorado River flows hasn't been this poor in >35 years. Even if wetter weather ahead, bottom-10 outcome likely.

h/t @glenwoodrek.bsky.social

The Winter Olympics vs. climate change Plus: an update on the snowpack (bad) and photos from a rare powder day (good)

I summarized 5 scientific studies that examine how climate change is reshaping the Winter Olympics.

New post at snow.news also includes an update on the West’s meager snowpack.

www.snow.news/p/winter-oly...

‘It’s horrible’ — Utah snowpack hits worst levels on record Is Utah losing its reputation for having the "Greatest Snow on Earth?"

Yikes—and thanks for sharing. What a season. The Salt Lake Tribune had this story on the record lows in Utah:

www.sltrib.com/news/environ...

Widespread bleak readings for the West's snowpack — and the water it contains.

All of the red dots on this map represent monitoring stations where snow water equivalent was below the 15th percentile on February 2.

nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/imap/

NASA: Western U.S. snow cover is tracking at record-low levels for January, based on satellite observations dating back to 2001.

science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...

The Science Behind Rare Gulf Effect Snow Potential In Tampa Bay Could parts of Tampa Bay, Florida experience Gulf effect snow this weekend? Our expert explains.

Rare Gulf Effect Snow in Tampa Bay, Florida this weekend. It's possible. My 101.

www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

Rain, not snow: Extraordinary warmth leaves mountains less snowy across the West The snowpack this winter is smaller than average in California's Sierra Nevada as well as the Rocky Mountains. The lack of snow reflects record warmth.

Record warmth this winter has left a diminished snowpack in many areas of California's Sierra Nevada and the Rocky Mountains. The meager snowpack in the Rockies will worsen the Colorado River's chronic water shortages. www.latimes.com/environment/...

The Winter Storm Severity Index for the next 3 days shows the huge footprint of this dangerous weather system.

WSSI highlights areas where travel and daily life may be disrupted by snow, ice, and wind.

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/wssi/wss...

Some good historical perspective here on the winters of 1976-77 and 80-81 before the ski areas had snowmaking. The current winter is likely sitting worse than 80-81 at this point, maybe not quite as bad as 76-77, but hard to compare because there wasn't much real-time snow data then. #cowx

Colorado needs this incoming storm in the worst way.

Snowmelt from Colorado supplies water to 19 other states and Mexico, but statewide snowpack is at a record low — just 56% of the median for this date.

nwcc-apps.sc.egov.usda.gov/basin-plots/...

In this January 21 map of snow water equivalent, basins in red are below 50% of the 1991–2020 median; orange indicates 50–69% of normal.

www.nrcs.usda.gov/programs-ini...

Snow drought update: record warmth, thin snowpack Plus, SnowSlang: O is for "orographic lift"

A serious snow drought is gripping much of the American West as record-breaking warmth has dominated the winter so far.

New post at snow.news has the latest on the West’s thin snowpack:

www.snow.news/p/snow-droug...

In Burned Forests, the West’s Snowpack Is Melting Earlier KEY POINTS Elevation, temperature, burn severity, vegetation type, and the amount of incoming solar radiation are among the drivers explaining when snowpack disappears after a wildfire. Wildfires had ...

Another climate feedback loop: Snowpack has trouble sticking around after forests are burned in megafires www.circleofblue.org/2025/water-c...

As of today we have a new record low snowpack for the Upper Colorado River basin for late January.

Series of big storms are needed to make up huge snow supply gap, Colorado water experts say There’s still winter left, but Colorado experts say the state needs some mega snowstorms to reach an average snowpack and water supply.

Series of big storms are needed to make up huge snow supply gap, Colorado water experts say

Northern lights and the Milky Way near Durango tonight.

🌡️ December brought record-breaking average temperatures to 9 Western states, and Idaho had its second-warmest December on record (dating back to 1895).

www.nrcs.usda.gov/sites/defaul...

Vail Mountain now facing worst snowpack in recording station’s 47-year history The SNOTEL recording site on Vail Mountain showed, on Tuesday, 4.4 inches of snow-water equivalent, making something many suspected would happen to now be official: It’s the worst snowpack in the area...

And the SNOTEL station on Vail Mountain hit a record low on Tuesday. The snowpack monitoring site was installed during the 1978-1979 water year.

www.vaildaily.com/news/vail-mo...