After a year marked by numerous national elections across the EU, POLITICO Poll of Polls continues to track voting intention trends for the upcoming national elections and combines them into an EU-wide seat tracker.
π³οΈ The full report is available exclusively to POLITICO Pro Analysis subscribers
6/6
10.12.2023 12:43 β π 3 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
π€ The scenario analysis predicts a clear majority for the longstanding βgrand coalition plusβ formed by EPP, S&D, and RE. So the center holds, but the right-wing surge continues. The sometimes discussed alliance of EPP, ECR, and RE would again fall short of a majority based on our seat estimate.
5/
10.12.2023 12:41 β π 3 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
β¨Our exclusive analysis, with polling trends from all 27 EU countries, assigns seats of new unaffiliated parties, resulting in a comprehensive seat estimate.
The full breakdown of our scenario analysis:
- EPP: 175 seats
- S&D: 145
- ECR: 91
- ID: 91
- RE: 87
- Greens: 47
- Left: 33
- NI: 51
4/
10.12.2023 12:40 β π 7 π 3 π¬ 1 π 0
π With the Dutch election results in, the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group surges in the seat tracker, catching up with the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) at 91 seats. A noteworthy shift that leaves Renew Europe (RE) statistically tied with these two groups for 3rd place.
3/
10.12.2023 12:38 β π 0 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
Kudos to @ivobantel.bsky.social and Rodrigo Gutierrez who crunched and visualized the @pollofpolls.bsky.social data.
ποΈ The center-right European Peopleβs Party (EPP) continues to lead with 175 seats, maintaining its edge over the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group at 145 seats.
2/
10.12.2023 12:37 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 1 π 0
π New polling analysis by the POLITICO Research & Analysis Division for the 2024 European Parliament election shows significant shifts in the EU's political landscape.
We published our new EP election report with 6 months to go until the European Parliament election.
πHere are my main takeaways:
10.12.2023 12:34 β π 9 π 5 π¬ 1 π 2
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 22% (+11)
SPD: 15% (-11)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
06.12.2023 18:00 β π 5 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 43% (+11)
Con: 25% (-18)
Lib Dems: 11% (=)
Reform: 8% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
06.12.2023 17:59 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Romania?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 30% (+1)
AUR: 19% (+10)
PNL: 19% (-6)
USR: 11%
SOS: 5%
UDMR: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2020 result
04.12.2023 13:38 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in the Czech Republic?
Our current poll of polls:
ANO: 33% (+6)
ODS: 13%
SPD: 11% (+2)
PirΓ‘ti: 10%
STAN: 6%
TOP 09: 5%
+/- vs. 2021 result
04.12.2023 11:33 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 6% (-6)
Left: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
04.12.2023 11:33 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Who will be the most powerful person in Europe in 2024?
At 9 p.m. CET, we reveal who topped our #POLITICO28 ranking of the Continentβs most influential faces for the year ahead.
Watch it live here (and see the names we've unveiled so far) π politico.eu/politico28
28.11.2023 11:00 β π 5 π 4 π¬ 0 π 1
Election day is here in the Netherlands. Polls suggest a nail-biting-close race.
22.11.2023 08:10 β π 0 π 2 π¬ 0 π 1
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
VVD: 18% (-4)
PVV: 16% (+6)
PvdAβGL: 16%
NSC: 15%
D66: 6% (-9)
BBB: 4% (+3)
+/- vs. 2021 result
21.11.2023 15:43 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 4
On www.politico.eu/europe-poll-... you can find the latest polling trends for the upcoming Netherlands election.
21.11.2023 11:30 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
NEW POLL OF POLLs: Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
VVD: 18% (-4)
NSC: 16%
PvdAβGL: 15%
PVV: 15% (+4)
D66: 5% (-10)
BBB: 5% (+4)
+/- vs. 2021 result
20.11.2023 18:14 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 0 π 2
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 46% (+14)
Con: 25% (-19)
Lib Dems: 11% (-1)
Reform: 7% (+5)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
15.11.2023 17:41 β π 5 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
New Slovak coalition embraces revenge, radicalism
Robert Fico has named his top team, and it features some controversial characters.
Slovakiaβs new leader, Robert Fico, has named his top team.
It features some controversial characters.
15.11.2023 16:42 β π 4 π 8 π¬ 1 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
15.11.2023 17:37 β π 2 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Portugal?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 25% (-3)
PS: 25% (-16)
CH: 15% (+7)
BE: 8% (+4)
IL: 7% (+2)
PCP-PEV: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2022 result
15.11.2023 17:37 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
NSC: 18%
VVD: 18% (-4)
PvdAβGL: 16%
PVV: 12% (+2)
BBB: 6% (+5)
D66: 5% (-10)
+/- vs. 2021 result
15.11.2023 16:49 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 1
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
13.11.2023 18:02 β π 4 π 6 π¬ 0 π 1
Who's ahead in the polls in the Netherlands?
Our current poll of polls:
NSC: 19%
VVD: 18% (-4)
PvdAβGL: 16%
PVV: 13% (+2)
BBB: 6% (+5)
D66: 5% (-10)
+/- vs. 2021 result
13.11.2023 18:02 β π 1 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Germany?
Our current poll of polls:
CDU/CSU: 30% (+6)
AfD: 21% (+11)
SPD: 16% (-10)
Greens: 14% (-1)
FDP: 5% (-6)
Left: 4% (-1)
+/- vs. 2021 result
13.11.2023 18:02 β π 4 π 6 π¬ 0 π 1
Who's ahead in the polls in the United Kingdom?
Our current poll of polls:
Lab: 46% (+13)
Con: 25% (-18)
Lib Dems: 10% (-1)
Reform: 8% (+6)
Greens: 6% (+3)
SNP: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2019 result
13.11.2023 18:02 β π 0 π 3 π¬ 0 π 0
Who's ahead in the polls in Portugal?
Our current poll of polls:
PSD: 24% (-3)
PS: 24% (-17)
CH: 13% (+6)
BE: 8% (+3)
IL: 7% (+2)
PCP-PEV: 3% (-1)
+/- vs. 2022 result
13.11.2023 18:01 β π 0 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
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