Jonathan Todd

Been working on almost *exactly* the same thing today for data releases (except using Google Antigravity). The FRED API also takes absolutely forever to get the fresh data in there. The BEA/BLS isn't immediate, but the couple minute lag is tolerable.

With new estimates the unemployment rate has been 4.3% over the past 6m when hiring was averaging 14k per month--the breakeven rate required to keep unemployment stable is probably negative given restrictive immigration policy + an aging pop--no people, no jobs

(I'm not saying this means anything, just pointing out)

Average hourly earnings growth of precisely 0.41% m/m for four of the past six months

This has to become a meme. I need this GIF.

Anthropic and Google now seem to get that the primary value people get out of AI is doing annoying work they don't want to do (coding, basic research, drafting emails, etc), OpenAI/XAI/Meta seem to still think image/video slop and search replacement are the future

HASSETT: SHOULD EXPECT SLIGHTLY LOWER JOBS NUMBERS

HASSETT: LOWER JOBS NUMBERS SHOULDN'T TRIGGER PANIC

One way to push yields lower...

Also - because the Dow's methodology was unassailably perfect when devised in the 19th century - Caterpillar's gain accounts for around half the Dow's 1,900-point gain year to date.

An equal-weight basket of:

$NVDA, $META, $PLTR, $TSLA, $ORCL, $PSKY, $COIN, $ASST, $DJT, $FRMI, $RUM, $ABTC, and $PEW

...is down 15% WTD, 19% YTD, and 33% over past 3m

It’s obviously a story that has been well understood by markets for a long time. But is the macroeconomic significance of this fully understood? Not sure.

The *upward revision* to capex over the last 12m is more than 1% of GDP.

Funny, I thought exactly Simmons at first with House and Chang involved, clearly

I'd guess more realistically is something like Yglesias/Thompson given they're both DC based, and certainly have a specific voice/vision/direction (There's my Bsky red meat for the day)

Some solid buying in $IGV since 10 am bottom

I am sincerely 100% here for the French press getting the US for budget paralysis

A map showing the municipal border of Chicago with three transparent shapes of different colors superimposed over it, roughly fitting inside.

The entire cities of Amsterdam (red), Paris (blue), and Barcelona (purple) can fit inside Chicago.

All borders use the same geographic scale (1:175000). The European cities have been rotated and/or flipped, but not resized.

Inside Musk’s bet to hook users that turned Grok into a porn generator Under pressure to boost its popularity, Elon Musk’s xAI loosened guardrails and relaxed controls on sexual content, setting off internal concern.

WaPo reports xAI deliberately loosened Grok's guardrails to boost popularity, sparking internal alarm. Employees had to pledge to work with "profane content." Even more disturbing, employees were listening to lurid audio conversations Tesla drivers had with Grok. Musk prioritized growth over safety.

Whoa that’s cool, you’ll have to let me know how it is. I haven't spent much time over there either but also want to get to know the area better. I’d booked a couple nights for April in Auteuil but had to cancel, will have to try that again sometime…

16 - which makes the LDR even more surprising/funny

A Paris apartment listing has a tv playing Lana Del Rey.

I feel like this is somehow a very sophisticated attempt to scam me personally.

Gawker was sued out of existence by billionaires who didn't want to be investigated by really good journalists who had the perfect rolodexes to get dirt on a pervert cabal and maybe upend their whole new world order. It isn't a scandal sheet you dope.

Harvard professor Steven Levitsky, who studies democracy backsliding, on Don Lemon's arrest:

“This is a new dimension. In democracies, journalists don't get arrested. In authoritarian regimes, journalists get arrested."

More in @status.news: www.status.news/p/don-lemon-...

Jeffrey Epstein arranged two meetings with Todd Boehly after disgraced financier’s first jail term Emails released by the Department of Justice on Friday revealed plans for meetings

NEW @theathleticfc.bsky.social :

Emails reveal Epstein twice arranged meetings in 2011 with Chelsea chairman Todd Boehly - three years after Epstein jailed for sex offenses - to discuss business deals.

Boehly, part owner of LA Dodgers and Lakers, declines comment

www.nytimes.com/athletic/701...

Ha, though admittedly I say UChicago when talking because, you know…

I’m ‘06, you?

Very cool. I took several classes with him but I guess not that one.

Reminiscing about the UofC Geography department is precisely how I want to enjoy my Friday evenings.

That guy is the best. Did you take the class where he drives everyone around in a 15 passenger van through northern IL/southern WI for the weekend?

It's near-white out conditions in Chicago as the snow comes down, and tonight's anti-ICE/CBP rally is wrapping up in front of city hall.

But not before the crowd bounces and chants, "I believe that we will win!"

Five classes from college:

1. Cultural Geography with the inimitable Marvin Mikesell
2. Legal Reasoning with Dennis Hutchinson
3. Sports, Society, and Science with Allen Sanderson
4. Changing America: 1900-Present with Michael Conzen
5. Urban Structure and Process with Saskia Sassen

Love it. I took one class with Smith, think that’s my only overlap.

$SOXX (iShares semis) outperformed $IGV (iShares software) by 32 pp this month - the most since both started trading in mid-2001, and it's not even close

It’s gonna take me awhile to get used to writing “Governor Powell” but I should have it down by the September meeting or so…

The characteristics that make a good Fed Chair — honesty, integrity, objectivity, humility, being a sharp reader of the data, collaboration, transparency, thoughtful communication — are all things Trump doesn’t like.