Andrew Small

Quick take on EU-China (or China-EU) climate joint statement:
We'll do more of the same and we'll commit to make some commitments later.

vs. last joint statement back in 2021 - in which China stated that it was going to 'strictly control coal consumption (it didn't)

EU readout on the summit in Beijing today; no surprises… see Finbarr’s thread for more

EU-China summit is underway in Beijing.

In this thread I will collate interesting points from remarks and readouts through the day.

First, Xi Jinping's opening remarks, as run by CCTV this morning

news.cctv.cn/2025/07/24/A...

Looks like the EU and China have a deliverable for their summit.

Joint statement on climate is done, negotiations wrapped up overnight. Will go to ambassadors at Coreper II today for approval

Just Showing Up

I have a GMF piece up on the backstory behind this week's low-content EU-China summit. A "success" that won't feel like one: www.gmfus.org/news/just-sh...

EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit Heightened economic and geopolitical tensions mark the state of EU-China trade relations as a summit between their leaders approaches. How are the two parties navigating the global restructuring…

📈 THURSDAY: EU-China Trade Relations Ahead of the July Summit, a virtual discussion with GMF's ‪@noahbarkin.bsky.social‬, Gunnar Wiegand, @ajwsmall.bsky.social‬, Penny Naas and Eva Valle Lagares, Head of Unit, Far East, Directorate-General Trade, ‪@ec.europa.eu‬

🎟️ Register now:

New Chinese trade data out today for May may deepen anxiety over trade diversion in Europe.

China's exports to the US down 34.52%
China's exports to the EU up 12%
China's exports to Germany up 21.5%
China's exports to France up 24.1%
China's exports to Netherlands up 7.1%

Both had hoped to do this with the US…

European Ministers of Defence - Save Europe, invest in mining! Critical materials are the backbone of modern defence. For Europe's rearmament to succeed, the EU defence ministers must break Beijing's chokehold on these essential resources.

Onshoring / friend-shoring critical raw material value chains should be included in NATO's upcoming 5% target!

My call on European Ministers of Defence to break China's critical raw material chokehold ASAP.

@euiss.bsky.social

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Merz messages on China in Bundestag speech:
- China will remain "important partner" of Germany & Europe
- Germany to pursue strategic de-risking, reduce one-sided dependencies.
- Relations w/China increasingly defined by systemic rivalry.
- Growing ties between China & Russia of "great concern"

China's trade data for April came out this morning.

Have just had the chance to do some sums based on last April's numbers, and for Europe it is an absolute bloodbath.

EU exports to China are down by huge numbers, while China's exports to EU members keep surging

🧵

Xi’s visit to Moscow this week is a usefully-timed reminder to European policymakers of the hard ceiling on China-Europe relations in the coming years. My @gmfus.bsky.social colleagues put a neat little video together laying it out... More here: www.linkedin.com/posts/andrew...

A few quick thoughts on how China is likely to deal with the current situation with India-Pakistan (since I am getting some questions...)

China won't want a significant escalation (few do) but I suspect won’t mind an opportunity to test Chinese against Western weapons systems on India's side. I doubt Beijing will see the Indian strikes as excessively escalatory. A kind of re-run of 2019 would IMO be fine from China’s perspective 9/9

Further back in time, there was some coordination and complementarity between Chinese and US approaches (see Kargil, Twin Peaks, even Mumbai). But that hasn’t been the case since Uri - now China’s expectation is that US will provide forms of support to India, and it will do likewise for Pakistan

China will certainly tilt in Pakistan’s direction though - I expect providing intelligence support and diplomatic support (as we’ve already seen at the UN). This isn’t just about China-Pak relations, but demonstration effect to others that they “look after their friends” 7/9

China won’t want to be seen to be too embroiled in Pak response (beyond the unavoidable fact that they will be using Chinese weapons): it's trying to stabilize ties with India now (as with many others) to consolidate China's position to face the US so will tread more delicately than a year or so ago

That doesn’t change the fundamental role that Pakistan plays for China as counterbalance / second front pressure on India. And Beijing has never minded a bit of “re-hyphenation” of India with Pakistan- same will hold now at a moment characterized by huge international economic opportunity for India

China-Pak ties are far worse than a decade ago. Beijing’s disappointment with CPEC, concerns about failure to protect Chinese nationals, broader unhappiness with Pak internal security landscape, economic & political situation, put relations on a lower ebb (though they don’t dramatize that in public)

CPEC did add a new factor: in the early years, as investments surged, China put extra stress on on Pak maintaining stability with India to ensure their economic interests weren’t harmed. But CPEC has stalled and the importance of the economic relationship has dipped again 3/9

But: the Chinese kit is much better, and the balance of the weapons systems that Pakistan uses is now far more China-centric (also a byproduct of developments in US-Pak & US-India ties). Old version was low-end plus nukes / delivery systems; new version includes advanced platforms 2/9

Thanks for the nice mention, Patrick. Here’s a quick rundown of how things have evolved since the book was published. Basic equation is the same: China supports Pakistan with military kit, diplomatic shielding, does not provide significant assistance to Pakistan in conflict scenarios beyond that 1/9

TikTok Fined 530 Mn Euros In EU Over China Data Transfer Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting on behalf of the EU, fined TikTok a massive 530 million euros ($600 million) Friday for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from acce...

Breaking: Ireland's data protection watchdog, acting for the EU, fined TikTok a huge 530 million euro for failing to ensure European users' personal data is shielded from access by Chinese authorities

TikTok admitted hosting European data in China

www.barrons.com/news/tiktok-...

EU spokesperson tells me: no plans to drop sanctions on China just because Beijing s lifting sanctions on some MEPs

"The EU has not observed changes in the human rights situation in China/Xinjiang. Therefore, the Council maintains the China/Xinjiang - related designations"

🎙️ Can Germany cope with Xi and Trump at the same time? That was the question on Berlin Briefing. Thank you @richardwalker.bsky.social for having me on the podcast, and good to always hear what @ajwsmall.bsky.social of @gmfus.bsky.social has to say! 🔗 WATCH/LISTEN: www.dw.com/en/dwcom-ber...

Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU Top negotiators met in Washington on Monday to discuss how to remove so-called reciprocal tariffs

Trump team has not said what it wants in trade talks, says EU

https://www.ft.com/content/c9bec30c-e0b6-4d50-a3bb-feb11eadc13c

Readout: Maroš Šefčovič's meeting with Howard Lutnick and Jamieson Greer lasted “a couple of hours” and focused on three areas:
- The EU's offer for a "zero-for-zero" tariff deal on all industrial goods
- Global overcapacity in steel and aluminum
- Supply chains of semiconductors and pharmaceuticals

Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US or Chinese communications tech FCC chair Brendan Carr urges ‘western allies’ to pick Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet company

"Top Trump official tells Europe to choose between US and Chinese communications tech" - article then focuses on satellites (where Europe is ramping up its own programs) and telecoms (where the US itself mostly uses European tech): www.ft.com/content/0a08...

Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang.

We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.

Read-out ↓
europa.eu/!FtFk49

DNB maakt zich zorgen over Amerikaanse invloed op pinbetalingen Pinbetalingen kunnen gebruikt worden als drukmiddel omdat ze via Amerikaanse bedrijven lopen. "Onwenselijk", noemt DNB dit risico.

And the Dutch tech autonomy crusade continues: The Dutch Central Bank now warns about the security of debit card payments, citing concerns about Europe’s over-reliance on American Visa and Mastercard.

nos.nl/artikel/2560...