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@mrschmidt20.bsky.social

None of my replies, comments,(re-) tweets, or posts are to be understood as advice for any matter of life - especially not with respect to financial matters. Author of https://compcap.substack.com

33 Followers  |  29 Following  |  145 Posts  |  Joined: 27.11.2024  |  1.7304

Latest posts by mrschmidt20.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: How Margin Expansion and a Debt-Free Balance Sheet Trump a Revenue Decline. Weak professional services revenue masked impressive SaaS growth, a fortified balance sheet, and a rapidly growing sales pipeline; but you would not know it from the headline numbers.

A nano-cap's revenue fell ~13%. But:
• Core SaaS business accelerating at +15%
• Balance sheet is now 100% debt-free
• A single webinar for a new product generated 30+ new public sector customers
• Adjusted Owner Earnings yield: ~8.5%
DYODD.
substacktools.com/sharex/c-ew2...

14.11.2025 20:26 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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RAVE Q1 2026: The Fortress Balance Sheet Gets Stronger Beneath modest top-line growth, Pizza Inn's strong sales increase and impressive operating leverage confirm the turnaround is accelerating.

Numbers don't lie. RAVE restaurant group ($RAVE) Q1 results:
✅ @pizzainn LFL sales: +8.1%
✅ Operating Income: +23.5%
✅ Adj Current Ratio: 11.5 & zero debt
The turnaround engine is revving, yet the market doesn't seem to notice. DYODD, details at:
substacktools.com/sharex/atwn3...

13.11.2025 21:05 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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GlobalX: The Q3 Profit Paradox The airline hit record growth and still posted a loss. Deconstructing this apparent failure reveals why the investment case just got more interesting.

How can an airline have record aircraft utilization (+26%), grow revenues (+11%), and post a $2m net loss after consecutive profitable quarters?
Check the Q3 "Profit Paradox" at
@globalxairlines
$JETMF
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/Lvlj9...

12.11.2025 18:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Acorn Energy: What Becomes Of the Brokenhearted? The share price dropped by 40% after weak hardware sales disappointed overly optimistic investors. Was this overdone?

The market dumped Acorn Energy ($ACFN) after a 40% post-earnings drop. They saw slowing hardware revenue. I see an accelerating, high-margin business now trading at a discount.
Is the panic a gift?
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/bKucu...

07.11.2025 10:56 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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IWG: Insights from the Q3 Call Why management's commentary on RevPAR, enterprise customers, and margins points to a future the market has yet to price in

The most valuable insights from $IWG's Q3 weren't in the press release; they were in the earnings call.
Management's commentary on RevPAR and the "enterprise flywheel" points to a future the market has yet to price in.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/sAC7z...

05.11.2025 15:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Ascent Industries: The Blueprint for Growth by Subtraction A deep dive into a specialty chemical pure-play at an earnings inflection point, driven by massive margin expansion and untapped operating leverage.

What does a real earnings inflection look like? For Ascent Industries $ACNT, it's a swing to near-breakeven EBIT while gross margins nearly doubled to ~30%.
With a debt-free BS, this specialty chemical co is ready to scale. Is it on your radar?
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/cu7Yt...

05.11.2025 11:53 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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IDT: Deliberation Deep-dive analysis after a 75-minute discussion with top management, reveals management’s emphasis on growth investments, as reflected in both strategic commentary and the FY26 incentive framework

Following a 75-min interview with $IDT's top management, it's clear the company is at a key inflection point. Management is deliberately shifting from value extraction to aggressive growth investment.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/vsagT...

04.11.2025 16:47 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Pico-Cap Q3 Results: Thesis Challenged A key component of the bull case has been invalidated. A deep dive into the Q3 results to see if the underlying operational improvements are enough

The facts changed on one of my pico-cap holdings. So I changed my mind.
My latest article explains the Q3 results that challenged my thesis, what the new key driver is, and why I'm reducing my position.
substacktools.com/sharex/DLap6...

04.11.2025 13:16 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The market is punishing @FlowTraders ($FLOW.AS) for an expectedly weak Q3.
While profits are down, the compounding thesis is strengthening. Shareholder Equity just hit a new record, and total trading capital is now >€1bn.
A myopic reaction.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/UKV-j...

30.10.2025 15:40 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The Architecture of Understanding: From Synapses to Serendipity Mental Models, Neuroplasticity, and the Art of Weaving a Smarter Mind

substacktools.com/sharex/UUZvk...

27.10.2025 10:45 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

How do you build a mind that thrives on serendipity in investing?
My article offers a blueprint, linking Munger's mental models with Feynman's techniques, @jordanbpeterson's memory hooks, @carminegallo's narrative concepts, and neuroscience from Carey & @maxsbennett.

27.10.2025 10:44 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Teaser for a free post dropping in ~3 hours on my Substack.

26.10.2025 07:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Garrett Motion Continues Firing on All Cylinders Q3 2025 results confirm the investment thesis: a high-quality cash machine, returning capital, and deleveraging

Garrett Motion ($GTX): a strong Q3, trades at 8.8x guided adj-FCF, a discount to peers despite superior ROIC.
Why the disconnect? The market sees a legacy auto parts maker with a junk credit rating, not a resilient company that is a data center play.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/ffXzn...

25.10.2025 15:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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SenSen Networks (ASX:SNS) reported its 6th consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow, record receipts, and a fortified balance sheet. I did a deep dive into the Q1 FY26 numbers and what they mean for investors. My analysis is now live.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/5V2lv...

16.10.2025 09:34 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Earnings update on a nano-cap idea:
• Net loss due to one-time non-cash expenses
• Backlog at record levels
• Net bookings more than doubled YoY
• New "second engine" 20% better than my expectations
The thesis is strengthening.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/zg2fk...

13.10.2025 16:43 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Happy Friday, everyone.
@intouchinsight Intouch Insight (INX.V) entered the 8th Wonder Airlock. For the first time, I've invoked the Captain's Override on a stock: Write-up to follow...
DYODD.
Read the Airlock Protocol thoughts here: substacktools.com/sharex/Houc1...

10.10.2025 14:34 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Quick reminder: I am calling for insightful questions for IDT Corp’s management. Subscribers can submit their questions until Friday, October 10th, in the 8th Wonder Capital chat, via comments to this post, or via Substack DM
substacktools.com/sharex/bWqo-...

08.10.2025 09:22 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Why I'm Not (Yet) Buying This Apparently Cheap Turnaround: A Deep Dive into Zoomd Technologies's & Its Risks This profitable fast-growing AdTech company trades at a FCF yield exceeding 10%, but can investors get comfortable with the risks?

When is a profitable company with a 10%+ FCF yield a "pass" for an investor?
I took a deep dive into AdTech turnaround Zoomd Technologies ($ZOMD.V). The operational metrics are impressive, but two major risks keep me on the sidelines for now.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/fRxOu...

07.10.2025 17:12 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Zoomd Technologies (ZOMD.V) Verdict: Access Granted -> Write-up

Happy Friday everyone,
@ZoomdTech ($ZOMD.V) passed through the 8th Wonder Airlock Protocol. Verdict: Access Granted -> Next step: Write-up
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/Fgivb...

03.10.2025 16:52 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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RAVE Restaurant Group: The Turnaround is Working Why growing profits, a strong balance sheet, and a clear strategic focus are being overlooked by the market.

Hi everyone,

I kindly received responses from the company that have a positive impact on my article. Therefore, I updated the RAVE restaurant post with changes tracked. Don't miss it.

substacktools.com/sharex/IxzH9...

02.10.2025 08:24 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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After a 20% post-earnings drop, is $IDT a compelling opportunity or a falling knife?
I argue the market reacted to the headline and missed the fundamental story.
DYODD
substacktools.com/sharex/pdQa6...

01.10.2025 19:03 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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The headline 1% revenue decline for RAVE Restaurant Group ($RAVE) masks the real story: PBT jumped 17%. Why? A profitable, growing @pizzainn core is completely masked by a strategic pivot.
I like: ROIC up, higher NOPAT margin, better capital turnover.
substacktools.com/sharex/tp9zE...

29.09.2025 15:10 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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My primary concern on SenSen Networks ($SNS.AX) was the "orange flag" of rising receivables while credit allowances fell.
An announcement confirmed a $1.5M cash receipt, clearing a major piece of that risk. The flag is fading.

DYODD. My updated analysis:
substacktools.com/sharex/fqlp7...

25.09.2025 08:15 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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To the Moon, or Sinking? Separating 'Rockets' from 'Torpedoes' A new academic paper uses machine learning to predict extreme stock returns; I link to the timeless principles of fundamental investing.

I discuss the paper through my eyes as a fundamental investor.

Read the full article here:
substacktools.com/sharex/9csqH...

24.09.2025 10:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The most important lesson for fundamental investors: Future 'Rockets' weren't the most hyped stocks. They were high-quality, efficient businesses trading at reasonable prices. The market was systematically underappreciating their quality.

24.09.2025 10:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

The model's secret sauce? Not hype. It used fundamental data—balance sheet strength, profitability, efficiency. In out-of-sample testing, it found a 100%+ risk-adjusted spread between its predicted Rockets & Torpedoes.

24.09.2025 10:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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What if you could spot the stocks destined to be massive winners ("Rockets") or catastrophic losers ("Torpedoes") before it happens? A new academic paper tried to do just that with machine learning. The results are stunning. 🧵👇

24.09.2025 10:14 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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DXN Limited (DXN.AX) Verdict: Keep in Quarantine (i.e. Watchlist)

Hi everyone,
the second 8th Wonder Airlock Protocol was just published: @dxnlimited ($DXN.AX) gets onto the watch list.
substacktools.com/sharex/NW80I...

23.09.2025 06:48 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Can a company return after a 90% stock collapse?
Maybe, but first steps first for @EMERGE_ECOM ($ECOM.V):
1)Net debt down 80%
2)Focus on two "boring" niches
3)Buy an asset that pays its cash outlay in <90 days.
Profitable, trades at 0.5x P/S.
DYODD.
substacktools.com/sharex/YYip-...

21.09.2025 17:44 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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EMERGE Commerce Verdict: Access Granted -> Write-up

The goal of the Airlock isn't to give answers, but to ask the right questions faster. We now know exactly where to focus our due diligence in the next stage.
Attached is the full scan. What are your thoughts?
substacktools.com/sharex/BSUIZ...

18.09.2025 17:56 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

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