Joey Schnaubelt

Evaluating Physical Climate Model Emulators for Global Warming Projections We propose a novel framework for evaluating physical climate model emulators for use in global warming projections Calibrating a widely used emulator to match the historical warming of GCMs does ...

A nice example of the high scientific standard of the IPCC when it comes to downplay the warming

Complex Earth system models are needed to simulate all these feedback's now becoming operational

#climate #IPCC #CMIP

Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments - Nature Meta-analyses on a global scale show that the measured coastal mean sea level is higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments.

Nature research paper: Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

go.nature.com/4lesnZA

The amount of misogyny is academia remains horrific -- and even worse, it is not going away with the older generation as one might have hoped. It is being recapitulated in a new generation.

Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments - Nature Meta-analyses on a global scale show that the measured coastal mean sea level is higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments.

🌊 Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Thirty years of glacier grounding line retreat in Antarctica | PNAS The Grounding Line (GL)—the transition from ice grounded on the continent and ice afloat in the ocean—is a sensitive indicator of glacier stability...

A multiple-satellite study of Antarctica’s grounding line area show a loss of 12,820 km2 over the last 30 years. Grounding lines are the contact points where continental ice sheets anchor to the seabed, slowing their flow into the oceans.
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

#Antarctica #sealevelrise

Emerging Effective Radiative Forcing in the Radiative Imbalance Since 2010 Observed top-of-atmosphere radiation fluxes and surface warming reveal a strong rise in effective radiative forcing (ERF) since 2010 Feedback responses are constrained using observed interannual ...

"From 2010 to 2024, ERF trends are ∼1.0 W m² per decade for both net and shortwave fluxes, exceeding those for 2001–2024 and substantially larger than projections from state‐of‐the‐art models"
doi.org/10.1029/2025...

Big Friday energy on Nature this afternoon 🧪

This is figure 1, which shows a risk map of Antarctic ice catchment basins.

The results of a study in Nature Climate Change imply that the Antarctic Ice Sheet does not act as one single tipping element, but rather as several tipping systems interacting across drainage basins. go.nature.com/4rFXQ9q 🧪

East Antarctica has been the epicenter for unusually persistent blocking and atmospheric river landfalls that have resulted in some extreme high temperatures. From February 12-March 1, I've noted 5 distinct atmospheric river events observed/forecasted over Wilkes Land.

🤯⚒️🧪❄️ "Preliminary dating, based on the presence of fossilized algae that only existed during specific geological periods, suggests that the core represents an archive of the past 23 million years" in West Antarctica

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements - a review

"Global warming must peak below 2°C, return to below 1.5°C as quickly as possible (i.e. within this century), and to around 1°C thereafter to limit tipping point risks".

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Google Maps is like really bad in Antarctica by the way

YouTube video by The Weather & Climate Livestream We ❤️ NCAR - Let's Save It!

Last December, weather and climate scientists sat down with us to tell us why they loved the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and why it benefits us all. Last night, the NSF began dismantling it. Listen to what they have to say, and why it's urgent that we #SaveNCAR wclivestream.com/act

Oxygen Isotopes in Tree Rings Track Neotropical Climate Dynamics Tree-ring δ18O from Abies guatemalensis in Central America captures interannual variations in boreal summer rainfall Lighter δ18O years are associated with a weakening of the Caribbean Low-Level ...

Excited to have this paper out showing a strong coupling between Central American tree-ring oxygen isotopes and ocean–atmosphere dynamics (interbasin SST gradients, ITCZ, CLLJ... ). Many thanks to all co-authors!

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Photo showing a tall, jagged ice front of the Ronne Ice Shelf in West Antarctica rising above the calm surface of the Weddell Sea. Credit: Torsten Albrecht / PIK.

🔔🚨 New Publication Alert!

Research has shown that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is a climate tipping element.

We found: it’s not one — it’s many.

📄 Paper (open access): www.nature.com/articles/s41...

📢 Press release: www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late...

Tread below 🧵👇

RealClimate: The Climate Science reference they don’t want Judges to read www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar...

Glacier biogeochemical cycling and downstream impacts - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Far from frozen and sterile environments, glaciers are biogeochemical reactors and regulators. This Review outlines key biogeochemical and associated physical processes occurring in glacierized enviro...

How do glaciers drive and interact with Earth's regional and global biogeochemical cycles? ❄️🏔️🦠🪨🌊🌎🧪⚒️

@natrevearthenviron.nature.com

Expertly led by Jon Hawkings & many collaborators

@mioceanologie.bsky.social @cnrs.fr @cnrs-dr12.bsky.social @cnrs-insu.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Image of the article page for a new paper

If you're interested in how ice sheets respond to climate, particularly over very long timescales, you might be interested in our new (open access) paper:
www.nature.com/articles/s43...

South Pacific carbon uptake controlled by West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics - Nature Geoscience Iron derived from debris eroded by the West Antarctic Ice Sheet rather than from dust deposition drove variations in carbon export in the South Pacific Antarctic region over the past 500,000 years, ac...

⚒️ Article: South Pacific carbon uptake controlled by West Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics

@icbm-uol.bsky.social @awi.de @climate.columbia.edu @lamont.columbia.edu @gisela-winckler.bsky.social

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Share your comments on NCAR with NSF Tell NSF the future that you want for NCAR by 13 March

@agu.org has a tool to help you submit a comment to NSF on the importance of NCAR: agu.quorum.us/campaign/154...

#SaveNCAR

Check out the @pnas.org highlight for our new paper on how Paleoclimate Pattern Effects in the Pliocene lead to tighter constraints on the modern response to CO2 (a.k.a. climate sensitivity)

Just an astonishing lede in this @isaacstanleybecker.bsky.social story. www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...

Zonally asymmetric changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength over the past million years - Nature Geoscience Anti-phased changes in Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength between the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean occurred on orbital timescales over the past one million years, linked to gla...

⚒️ Article: Anti-phased changes in Antarctic Circumpolar Current strength between the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean occurred on orbital timescales over the past one million years

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

YouTube video by Bruce Springsteen Bruce Springsteen - Streets Of Minneapolis (Official Audio)

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

Stay free

Climate Data Scientist | Climate Central Climate Central is seeking a highly-skilled Climate Data Scientist to join our team. Reporting to the Vice President for Science, the scientist will be part of a new initiative in climate services to ...

Very exciting to share that @climatecentral.org is hiring a Climate Data Scientist to join a new climate services effort focused on advancing predictions of risks and hazards on seasonal-to-decadal timescales. The application closes on February 9, 2026 at 5pm ET, & the description can be found here:

Colored pencil and ink drawing of two cichlid-esque fish facing inward to a sign that says “Fuck ICE”

Wasn’t sure if I was going to #SundayFishSketch today because I’m tired and angry, but this felt right

Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming | PNAS Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth’s clima...

Really excited to see this paper out!! Led by @vtcoop.bsky.social we show that if you use cold and warm paleoclimates together, you can reduce uncertainty in Earth's climate sensitivity by quantifying the pattern effect and more precisely constrain future climate change www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air–sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations - Nature Climate Change Changes in ocean fronts could impact biological productivity and carbon exchange. By analysing satellite and reanalysis data, the authors identify areas with active frontal activity and rapid change i...

Global trends in ocean fronts and impacts on the air–sea CO2 flux and chlorophyll concentrations www.nature.com/articles/s41... #jcampubs 🌊

Relatively warm deep-water formation persisted in the Last Glacial Maximum - Nature During the Last Glacial Maximum, the deep Northwest Atlantic was only about 2 °C colder than today, suggesting sustained production of relatively warm North Atlantic Deep Water during the Last Glacial...

🌊 Relatively warm deep-water formation persisted in the Last Glacial Maximum

www.nature.com/articles/s41...