Cleo Davies

Such a silly piece. Analysis (🤔) is shockingly shallow. And style/metaphors ridiculous: 'Europeans are attached to their cuddlier form of capitalism'... All pink and fluffy this side of the pond... 'job security was once Europe's comfort blanket. It now feels more like a straightjacket'. 🙄

Maybe there is not really a best case scenario - it is highly unlikely that any PM could command stability/legitimact with current arithmetic in Parliament but you never know... And with Macron very exposed and very unpopular, 🇫🇷 is getting closer to an institutional crisis, whomever ends up in power

As for parliament, it is extremely difficult to predict given the 2 round system + what the french call 'le jeux des alliances' = how parties negotiate between the two rounds of parliamentary elections. That is how the Left bloc ended up with biggest number of seats in parliament at last election

Bardella, Rassemblement National, is far ahead of potential rivals but only around 30% of voters' intentions. Traditionally, far right does not benefit from large nb of vote carryover from other parties whose candidate doesn't make 2nd round. So a lot depends on who ends up being 1st round runner up

Macron could also decide to 'dissolve parliament', which would lead to parliamentary elections. The Rassemblement National secured the second largest block of votes in last parliamentary election in 2024 but did not come first and was nowhere near a majority of seats.

Not necessarily. Pdt election is two round system with runoff between the two candidates that gathered most votes in 1st round if none secured 50% + 1 vote in 1st round. So far, Le Pen has failed twice after reaching second round runoff, twice against Macron. It is also not clear if Le Pen can run.

If he were to quit (a very unlikely scenario), there would be a presidential election. It would have to be held between 20 and 35 days after he quits. During period between resignation and election, the president of the Senat is interim 🇫🇷 Pdt, though he won't have full executive powers of Pdt

Another scenario in immediate aftermath of 🇫🇷 PM quitting is: Macron does nothing. It took him two months to nominate Barnier after2024 elections, an unprecedented, though not strictly anticonstitutional,amount of time. He may think he can just leave this govt in place to manage things for months...

To be clear, left block is calling for Macron to nominate a left wing PM, which is something Macron had resisted since the general election results in July 2024, when a coalition of left wing parties (le front populaire) won the most seats in parliament but well short of any absolute majority

Far Left party La France Insoumise les by Mélenchon is calling for Macron to quit. Not yet a call from other parties. Macron though is particularly unpopular, personally blamed for current political crisis, and even more exposed politically now Lecornu, a very close ally of Macron, has quit as PM.

Rassemblement National of M. Le Pen is calling for Pdt to call a general election; a reminder that political crisis in 🇫🇷 (three PMs in one year + fragmented parliament) comes from Macron’s unilateral decision to call a parliamentary election in June 2024, after his block lost heavily in 🇪🇺 elections.

Macron nominates another PM and asks them to form a government. The left block is calling for Pdt to do this, something Macron has resisted doing. BUT no block has absolute majority or seems to be able to negotiate a majority in parliament so any new PM & gvt will face the same problems.

Another PM quits in 🇫🇷, less than 24 hours after announcing the ministers in his government. Sébastien Lecornu quit this morning; he was nominated by President Macron immediately after Francois Bayrou quit as PM 9 September after loosing a vote of confidence. This is what could happen next 1/4

Macron’s big European meeting is turning into a speed-dating exercise The once-hyped European Political Community hasn’t produced major deliverables, but it’s still useful for dialogue and showcasing policy initiatives.

@politico.eu takes up prof Richard Whitman’s metaphor for European Political Community: one big leader-level ‘speed dating exercise’. Article 👇 reflects views of 🇪🇺 member states; BUT no views from non 🇪🇺 states 🤔 www.politico.eu/article/macr...

Europe’s leaders converge in Tirana for the sixth EPC summit - UK in a changing Europe Cleo Davies and Monika Brusenbauch Meislová explain the history and the structure of the European Political Community summit that brings together leaders from across Europe twice a year ahead of the s...

On 2 October, 🇩🇰 hosts 7th European Political Community (EPC) summit. Despite no joint statement or commitments to action, 45+ heads of states & gvts continue to attend twice a year + summit hosts are lined up until 2028. @monikameislova.bsky.social & I on last summit 👉 ukandeu.ac.uk/europes-lead...

The good diplomat: Starmer’s bilateralism with EU member states Barely two weeks go by without a bilateral meeting between Keir Starmer and a leader from a European capital. He hosted his Irish and Spanish counterparts in Downing Street on 12 September…

encompass-europe.com/comment/the-... @cleodavies.bsky.social

Venice

Visiting Europe, which is clearly going to hell

📣👇my piece today on Starmer’s approach to bilateralism with 🇪🇺 member states. He is much better at it than his recent predecessors … BUT ‘Starmer may have proven himself a good diplomat, but so far, this is not a quality that has endeared him to the British public.’ 🙏 @padamson.bsky.social

What are the economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal? - Economics Observatory The summit meeting of the European Union (EU) and the UK held at Lancaster House in May 2025 marked a symbolic thaw in post-Brexit relations. The event brought together EU leaders (including European ...

The economic implications of the UK-EU reset deal: @anandmenon.bsky.social & me for Economics Observatory.

economicsobservatory.com/what-are-the...

I agree!! Here is a snippet from senior remain campaigner inside n.10, on his reaction 9 years ago today… 👇 maybe remembering the lessons of that period may come in useful one day rather than recalling Hannan’s speculations

'I suddenly retch harder than I have done in my life. Nothing comes up. I retch again - so hard, it feels I will turn inside out...tears are streaming down my face - not from sadness, but from the sheer physical exertion' 👉Craig Oliver, Cameron's director Pol&Coms, outside N.10, 4:45am, 24 June 2016

An important, useful + really accessible report and a 👌👌 check on revisionist takes! @husseinkassim.bsky.social & I contributed a chapter on the 🇪🇺's Brexit strategy. That is one aspect that gives rise to some overblown, even conspiratorial takes... 2.5 pages to set the record straight 🙂 👇

How Europe would fill an America-shaped hole in NATO The likeliest replacement for the U.S. is a grouping of France, the U.K., Germany and Poland, but it would be much more vulnerable than an America-led alliance.

"This is now a window of opportunity [for cooperation], but the domestic political trajectory in the two nuclear powers does make other Europeans wonder about their future reliability.”

Thanks for quoting me in this piece, @laukaya.bsky.social!

www.politico.eu/article/how-...

'Top economist' 😎

Many 🙏

Great 🧵 Steve 👌! Do you know is this is first time 🇪🇺 adopts a Decision to negotiate an agreement on youth mobility with a 3rd country? If an agreement is reached, does this mean that going forward, it sets a precedent limiting individual member states to nego bilateral deals with 3rd countries?

Excellent 🧵 detailing the decision-making process at EU level on reaching a council decision on mandate for negotiating a youth experience deal with the 🇬🇧.

Let’s play a game of “spot the woman”. Press box equivalent of where’s wally

After my grumbles yesterday (but not because of them), final legal texts on fisheries access and TCA Energy title extension now concluded, both precursors to the EU-UK Reset negotiation package

Federal Council opens consultation process on Swiss-EU package On 13 June 2025, the Federal Council approved the texts of the agreements negotiated with the EU in 2024 and opened the consultation process on the Swiss‒EU package. In addition to the agreements with the EU, the package includes legislation to authorise the domestic implementation, including accompanying measures (see press release, 13 June 2025). The Federal Council has come out in favour of an optional referendum on the Swiss‒EU package. The consultation process will run until 31 October 2025.

News for EU policy nerds: the legal texts for 20 new or updated EU-Switzerland agreements were published earlier this week. Happy trawling!