Joshua Rovner

TNSR | "The Changing Face of War"

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The TNSR winter issue, featuring our newly redesigned logo, is now available in print. Order your copy now from @utexaspress.bsky.social!

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China is undergoing major changes in how it thinks about nuclear weapons, as indicated in the just released China Military Power Report. 2 developments stand out.
media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...

"Autonomous weapon systems bring many risks and concerns, but they also present an opportunity to, in specific cases, wage more discriminate forms of war—an opportunity to master and mitigate the scourges of war." by Nathan Wood from his article, "Bombs, Bots, and the Principle of Distinction . . ."

Can autonomous weapons make war less brutal?

Instead of viewing autonomy solely as a risk, Nathan Wood (@woodnathang.bsky.social) posits that these systems—when used within the correct parameters—offer a pathway to more discriminate and legally compliant warfare. tnsr.org/2025/12/bomb...

Joshua Rovner, Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics Joshua Rovner's new co-authored article in the European Journal of International Security examines the nature and scope of sabotage as a form of statecraft.

What is sabotage and how is it a form of statecraft in world politics? A new article co-authored by @jrovner.bsky.social in @ejisbisa.bsky.social explores this concept, which has important implications for understanding contemporary security challenges. Read more: www.american.edu/sis/research...

Scholar article by Carter Malkasian, "Wars of the Greater Middle East, 1945–1992"

How did warfare evolve in the "greater Middle East" during the Cold War? Carter Malkasian from the National War College argues this period saw a "democratization of violence"—guerrilla warfare & terrorism—that complicated state authority.

@jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social, and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social's new article is a super read on an important but neglected area of covert action:

www.cambridge.org/core/service...

What is sabotage? How does it work as a tool of statecraft? And what are its limits? Check out my new article with @rorycormac.bsky.social and @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social. Open access

Concerns about the presumption of regularity also impact national security policy. Re-upping a piece from the first Trump administration: warontherocks.com/2020/04/an-a...

Cover of the "European Journal of International Security" with the hashtag "#OpenAccess" visible on the upper right corner.

#OpenAccess from @ejisbisa.bsky.social -

Sand in the gears: Sabotage in world politics - https://cup.org/4o2MQBc

- @jrovner.bsky.social, @rorycormac.bsky.social & @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social

#FirstView

YouTube video by School of War Podcast Ep 236: Joshua Rovner on Grand Strategy

Delighted to talk about Strategy and Grand Strategy with Aaron Maclean on his excellent School of War podcast. Check it out! www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZZD...

Navigating the New Nuclear Map - Texas National Security Review The global nuclear order is undergoing rapid and complex transformations, driven by the expansion of arsenals, evolving doctrines, and the interplay of domestic and international politics. This roundt...

Our latest roundtable examines the rapidly evolving global nuclear order. From North Korea to NATO, China to Latin America, this collection of essays explores the domestic and international forces reshaping nuclear security.

Full roundtable: tnsr.org/roundtable/n...

Strategies for pandemics and Grand Strategy for disease health security - CRASSH The plan to "win the peace" after a pandemic is a critical but undeveloped element of pandemic preparedness

Strategy and Grand Strategy beyond war and peace. Bradley Dickey from the Cambridge Centre for Pandemic Risk uses the book to understand the response to covid-19 - and to think about the broader questions surrounding health security. www.crassh.cam.ac.uk/blog/strateg...

I joined @nktpnd.bsky.social on his @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast “Thinking the Unthinkable” to talk about my new book: The Art of Coercion.

And here’s the book (the ebook is free!):
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Age of Deception by Jon R. Lindsay | eBook | Cornell University Press At the heart of cybersecurity lies a paradox: Cooperation makes conflict possible. In Age of Deception, Jon R. Lindsay shows that widespread trust in cyberspace enables espionage and subversion. While...

Good news! You can now download the open access (free) ebook of Age of Decption from @CornellPress !

(You can also buy a paperback, which makes a fine decoration for your bookshelf)

www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

Jervis Forum Roundtable 17-5 on Gioe and Morell, “Spy and Tell” Roundtable Review 17-5 David V. Gioe and Michael J. Morell, “Spy and Tell: The Promise and Peril of Disclosing Intelligence for Strategic Advantage,” Foreign Affairs 7:4 (2024): 138-152.

Should the US release secret intelligence for strategic gain? A roundtable debate in @h-diplo.bsky.social with Melissa Graves, David Gioe, @mindyhaas.bsky.social and me: issforum.org/roundtables/...

New collection of essays and interviews on European security. Includes my thoughts on strategy and grand strategy. human-magazin.de/wp-content/u...

Teaching about 9/11, then and now. My thoughts @usatoday.com

I have some thoughts for USA Today on teaching abut 9/11, then and now www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...

"Trade in War" with Mariya Grinberg, available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube, and Amazon

At the start of WWI, Britain allowed the trade of machine guns to Germany but banned the trade of carriages for them. Why?

On our podcast Mariya Grinberg discusses her book, "Trade in War," and why adversaries often continue to trade even while fighting @mitpolisci.bsky.social @ssp-mit.bsky.social

Article on sabotage accepted for publication in @ejisbisa.bsky.social authored with @lmaschmeyer.bsky.social and @jrovner.bsky.social
calls for a celebratory Dartmoor whisky

Sabotage weaponises friction to degrade; subversion actively generates change

2 distinct logics in “grey zone” statecraft

The World Is More Uncertain than You Think: Assessing and Combating Overconfidence Among 2,000 National Security Officials - Texas National Security Review This article analyzes more than 60,000 assessments of uncertainty made by national security officials from more than forty NATO allies and partners. The findings show that national security officials ...

A study of nearly 2,000 military and civilian officials reveals that even the most experienced experts are susceptible to cognitive biases that can have significant implications for international stability.

Read Jeffrey Friedman's article on this topic on the TNSR website. tnsr.org/2025/09/the-...

2/2 For more on strategy and grand strategy, and why they sometimes work at cross-purposes, see here: www.iiss.org/publications...

Opinion | Putin Should Be Careful What He Wishes For

1/2 Putin's long war in Ukraine has reduced Russia's influence abroad, writes @hannanotte.bsky.social. Put another way, its wartime strategy is working against its broader grand strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/o...

New tenure-track position in international security tinyurl.com/5dsuwcvm

If you have used TNSR resources in the past, please take a few minutes to fill out this survey. The first 100 respondents will receive a FREE COPY of our next print edition! coda.io/form/Texas-N...

Quote from Claire Vergerio, "I would like to thank all the contributors again for engaging so thoughtfully with my work and for giving me the opportunity to further develop and clarify my own ideas on some of the core overarching questions that have driven my research over the years."

Claire Vergerio penned a response to the roundtable we published on her book earlier this year. In it she notes how historians of international relations tend to differ with legal scholars on their assessment of her book's contemporary relevance.

In this episode, Ryan Vest and Sheena Chestnut Greitens are joined by Jon Caverley, an esteemed national security and China scholar, to discuss his article, "So What? Reassessing the Military… The Strategic Significance of Taiwan in US Defense Planning | Horns of a Dilemma

Is Taiwan the indispensable military fortress it's often claimed to be? In our latest "Horns of a Dilemma" episode, Jonathan Caverley (@jcaverley.bsky.social) of the U.S. Naval War College presents a compelling analysis based on his TNSR article. youtu.be/6p-SJt6q5Es

Is War Ever Really Worth It? Experts discuss how to evaluate success and failure in war.

Is war ever really worth it? SIS professor Joshua Rovner (@jrovner.bsky.social) & other experts gave their unique analysis on this topic in a new piece published in @inkstickmedia.com as part of a collaboration with the Stimson Center.

inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...

2/2 Meaningful success depends on aligning wartime strategy with peacetime grand strategy. For a longer discussion see: www.iiss.org/publications...

Is War Ever Really Worth It? Experts discuss how to evaluate success and failure in war.

1/2 Is war worth it? Some thoughts here, in a roundtable for @stimsoncenter.bsky.social with Chis Preble, @speechboy71.bsky.social, Paul Fritz, and Chijioke Onuchukwu inkstickmedia.com/is-war-ever-...