Carsten Braband

Not just left vs right: Most voters think about affordability and material wellbeing, not in ideological terms Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms. "Moderates" are mostly non-ideological.

Good morning. I've got a banger new post out today that develops a new method for placing voters on the left-right ideological spectrum, and adds a new, "non-ideological"/affordability axis to usual way we chart & think about US voters (esp swing voters). www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-l...

Crazy support numbers for Zohran Mamdani among young women: 84% (!) of women aged 18-29 voted for Mamdani in the NYC Mayoral Election.

But also important: young men voted MUCH MORE STRONGLY (67%) for Mamdani than old men (37%).

CDU-Politiker: Der schwarz-blaue Sehnsuchtssatz "Die Mehrheit ist rechts, aber bekommt trotzdem linke Politik" – diese Formel wiederholen CDU-Politiker gerade auffällig oft. Dahinter steckt eine gefährliche Strategie.

"Die Mehrheit in diesem Land ist rechts, aber bekommt trotzdem eine linke Politik" – dieser Satz ist also nicht analytisch gemeint, sondern strategisch. Er ist nicht da, um etwas zu beschreiben, sondern um etwas zu planen.

www.zeit.de/politik/2025...

Real existierende linke Akademiker:innen mal wieder anders als manche denken:
„Radical left support increases for those who study more than their parents and do not achieve upward class mobility, as well as for those who experience upward class mobility but continue to struggle financially“

The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…

An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Lesenswert!

Nur zur Einordnung:

Kosten illegaler Grenzkontrollen: pro Quartal ca. 30 Millionen €

Kosten durch Jens Spahn verursacht: ca. 3,5 Milliarden €

Kosten durch Steuerbetrug CumCum: ca. 30 Milliarden €

Zusätzliche Gelder, die wir für das Deutschlandticket gebraucht hätten: 800 Millionen.

Das Klima der Ungleichheit. Zur sozialen Struktur von Klimakonflikten - Berliner Journal für Soziologie The article maps how political conflicts over climate change are intertwined with social inequality. Building on studies of Dörre et al. on industrial transformation conflicts, four forms of social in...

Warum wir beim Klima zwar alle in einem Boot sitzen, es aber entscheidend ist, dass manche im halbgefluteten Maschinenraum mitfahren und andere auf dem Sonnendeck:

Neuer Artikel zu Klima, Klasse und Konflikt, mit @steffenmau.bsky.social und @thomaslux.bsky.social

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Partisan Conversion Through Neighborhood Influence: How Voters Adopt the Partisanship of Their Neighbors | The Journal of Politics Recent studies show that American neighborhoods have become politically homogeneous, raising concerns about how geographic polarization divides parties and influences voters. But, it remains unclear h...

"Panel data on 41 million voters from 2008 to 2020 and an original survey of 24,433 respondents demonstrate that exposure to partisan neighbors increases party switching."

www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

OK, a🧵: Our new paper studies workers' political consciousness in times of class demobilization.

We show there's more to workers' politics than right-wing resentment. Listening to workers, we reconstruct their moral critiques of money, power & recognition.

Link journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Enges Rennen bei der Parlamentswahl in Norwegen erwartet Bei der Wahl in Norwegen wird es für den sozialdemokratischen Ministerpräsidenten Støre spannend: Seine Arbeiterpartei führt zwar in den Umfragen, entscheidend ist aber das Abschneiden kleinerer Links...

#Norwegen #norway www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...

The takeaway:

👉 Accommodating the radical right on immigration doesn’t win back voters.
👉 It alienates the progressive base.
👉 And it raises the salience of the very issue the radical right owns.
In short: it’s electoral self-harm.

✨Very happy to see my paper "Attitudinal ambivalence toward multiculturalism" out on @jeppjournal.bsky.social !

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

1/8 🧵

Kann man Autobahnen eigentlich wieder abreißen?

chart from Stata showing income groups on the X axis, pr(vv1) - which means probability of having cast a vote for president - on the Y axis. There are 4 lines, one for 2012, for 2016, 2020, and 2024. 2024 is by far the steepest, with a 30 point difference in predicted turnout between those earning over $100k and those earning under $30k. Below are some of the key data points: under $30k in 2024 = 38% predicted turnout 2020 = 48%, 2016 = 51%, 2012 = 58% over $100k in 2024 = 73% predicted turnout 2020 & 2012 also about 73% 2016 = 60%

chart from Excel, X axis is year (2012 - 2024) and Y axis is % turnout. 6 lines: whites in families earning over $100k, white less than $30k, Black over $100k, Black under $30k, Hispanic over $100k, Hispanic under $30k. All three lines for under $30k trend downward - declining turnout across these 4 elections. All three over $100k lines are flat-ish, with a dip in 2016 and a rise back up in 2020. Under $30k Black and Hispanic turnout in 2024 was about 25%, under $30k white turnout about 40%. Over $100k white turnout in 2024 was nearly 80%, over $100k Black & Hispanic turnout both about 60%

Class and race gaps in voting are widening a lot.

I just got results from the CES and voter turnout among low-income people has been declining steadily since 2012 - across racial groups. Only 25% of Black and Hispanic people in households making less than $30k/year voted in 2024.

(small thread)

The cover of the book Paper Stones: A History of Electoral Socialism is on a background of multiple pages of text from digitally accessed journal articles.

In the 19th century as the socialist movement grew in Europe, it faced a choice: whether to participate in elections. The anarchists said no. The remaining socialists waded into electoral battle. This book analyzes that decision and its consequences #booksky

«Polarisierung. Über die Ordnung der Politik» - Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung «linksbündig»-Buchpremiere. Nils C. Kumkar im Gespräch mit Matthias Ubl

Berlin! Am 19. August stelle ich mein neues Buch vor. Wer Fragen hat oder welche sucht oder einfach was klären will: kommt vorbei, das wird super!

www.rosalux.de/veranstaltun...

What Abou-Chadi et al. show here is not just that conservative migration positions won't help social-democrats to attract voters, but also that left positions on retirement (that is allowing for early retirement) make social-democrats most attractive (and right positions make them less attracitve).

New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

Zohran's Historic Win: 16 Takeaways The oligarchy is not invincible

The oligarchy is not invincible

www.laborpolitics.com/p/zohrans-hi...

Ich habe gestern beim DGB eine Keynote darüber gehalten, warum das beste Mittel gegen den Rechtsruck eine Erneuerung des demokratischen Klassenkampfs ist. Statt Defensivität braucht es ein vorwärtsgewandtes Projekt zur Vertiefung der sozialen Grundlagen der Demokratie.

Vorschlag zu Höhe des Mindestlohns von der Kommission:

Ab 2026: 13,90 €
Ab 2027: 14,60 €

Damit dürfte das nächste Wahlversprechen der SPD gebrochen werden, wenn es nicht zu einem politischen Eingriff kommt.

Today, the German Federal Election Officer released data on voting by age and gender for the 2025 election. Contrary to popular belief, AfD support is still not strongest among the youngest voters, but rather among the middle-aged (males). Support is also still much lower in older cohorts. (1/3) 🧵

Du hast nicht zufällig noch Plots zur Zusammensetzung der Elektorate nach Alter / Geschlecht gebaut? :)

*Register data* results now published for whole Germany:

37% of women under 25 voted for die Linke in the German federal elections in 2025.

Also very striking to see that the AfD was the strongest party among *all age groups of men except those older than 60*.

Hahaha

Not quite an analysis, but I was happy to be remembered that Trump was the one who tore up the deal with Iran in first place in his first term bsky.app/profile/kevi...

Industrial Employment and Populism in Germany—Exploring the Effect of Actual and Looming Decline - Politische Vierteljahresschrift The regional decline of manufacturing employment is frequently linked to the rise of right-wing populism in many Western countries. Surprisingly, contributions that directly examine the relationship b...

How is regional loss of manufacturing jobs linked to populism? In a new paper in @pvs-journal.bsky.social, @mbayerlein.bsky.social, Anne Metten & I find that industrial decline in Germany shapes electoral support for left-wing rather than far-right populist parties.
A thread. 🧵👇 shorturl.at/RIjCr

In this new article, we study voting for the BSW from a policy space perspective with @gles.bsky.social data.

Findings:
-BSW voters tend to be left-nationalist
-Depending on prior party support, either nationalist or economically left-wing positions predict switching to BSW

doi.org/10.1080/0964...