Joakim Kreutz

Why do authoritarian states charge political opponents with non-political crimes? In our @thejop.bsky.social paper with Jennifer Pan & @yiqingxu.bsky.social, we examine how *Disguised Repression* undermines opponents’ moral authority and mobilization capacity. doi.org/10.1086/7342...

State Terror A brief guide for Americans

"State Terror: A brief guide for Americans"
Revisiting a piece I wrote in April 2025
"In the history of state terror, the escape from law into coercion takes three forms... the leader principle; the state of exception; and the zone of statelessness."
snyder.substack.com/p/state-terror

TERRORISM EXPERT HERE:

This statement is a clear example of what is known as “State Terrorism”: When the dictatorship will order all instruments of its state security & intelligence apparatus against its own citizens to terrorize the population.

This is more or less what the American Revolution was about

Reading this will not make you more stupid

5-4 after giving up a 3-0 lead at halftime (and 4-2 at 88 minutes)! Why make it easy for ourselves... ÖSK great escape is on!

Extremist murders by ideology, 2013 to 2022. www.pbump.net/o/reassessin...

1000 cites, that's amazing. Thank you everyone using the UCDP Conflict Termination data. BTW, it was updated this summer to now cover 1946-2023.

Agree, and Canada-Mexico joint hosting would be great!

And the conflict ended in 2023 by Azerbajdzjan victory...

On this day 70 years ago, the leadership of KGB Second Chief Directorate (counterintel) met in Moscow.

I located & obtained the meeting transcript from the Lithuanian Special Archives in Vilnius.

I translated it & wrote an analysis for the Wilson Center. ⬇️

www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/...

Carl Öhman, Assistant Professor at the Department of Government, Uppsala University

@cohman.bsky.social is one of two receivers of this year's Oscar Prize at Uppsala University. Grats Carl!

"Carl Öhman's book The Afterlife of Data asks important questions about who should control the data we leave behind us, and by extension, our collective history."

www.uu.se/en/staff/new...

On the one hand, the world is a mess. On the other hand, this view and a beer...

I'm all in favor of impeachment of Trump, but the US have bombed countries multiple times before without clear congress mandate. If/when Iran retaliates, though, ...

In general transparency is a good thing, but this will also make reviewing more work-intense. If reviews become public, then I will feel compelled to explicitly explain and include references backning up my comments rather than assuming the author is aware of the relevant literature.

Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.

The @telegraphnews.bsky.social lies about the causes of the electricity blackout in Spain on April 28th:

It wrongly claims that the official report blames renewables when it does the opposite.

It names negative prices as the main trigger instead of poorly controlled voltage fluctuations.

We at the Crowd Counting Consortium (Jeremy Pressman, Soha Hammam, PhD, & Christopher Shay) have a new piece out (see link in Comment below). | Erica Chenoweth We at the Crowd Counting Consortium (Jeremy Pressman, Soha Hammam, PhD, & Christopher Shay) have a new piece out (see link in Comment below). In it, we show that through May 2025, the size and sca...

www.linkedin.com/posts/erica-...

So the President can be (and should be) impeached, but is there no way to remove his appointments? They are violating the constitution on a daily basis, there must be some way to oust them besides "he/she should resign"?

The violence seems to be getting the most attention here, but hear what she is saying. Federal troops have the intent to "liberate" the city and state from elected leaders. Anyone still thinking this is not an authoritarian takeover?

WTAF!

UCDP: Sharp increase in conflicts and wars The number of armed conflicts in the world reached a historic high in 2024. This is shown by new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at Uppsala University. Despite a marginal decrease i...

New data from UCDP shows the highest number of active conflicts ever recorded, press release found here: www.eurekalert.org/news-release...

Reshare to scare the data bros and popularism acolytes

Do you work on gender and peacebuilding broadly defined (including everything from ceasefires to transitional justice)? I’m looking for pitches to contribute to a special issue, especially interested in quantitative research by scholars outside of Europe/US/Canada. Email/DM me!

If I lived, or were in the US right now, I would participate in daily and visible protest actions wherever in the country. My research suggests that the key to mass mobilization is broad micro mobilization. The history books may focus on millions marching, but small protests pave the way.

Thank you for an excellent thread.

BREAKING: After being called senile, and Newsom denying that they talked yesterday, Trump released this screenshot to the media to show that he actually did speak to Gavin Newsom a day ago, like he claimed.

What do you notice from this screenshot? For those who are slow today is June 10.

Not so much unable as unwilling ... to follow the last of the United States.

Many remains unaware about what is happening, or uncertain about the risk of getting involved. Massive protests will make a difference. Wave flags of the US, Mexico, Sweden, Ghana, Indonesia, or whatever - show that the US in all its diversity wants its laws and constitution to be respected