After a brief pause earlier in the year, Ukraine again faces difficult weeks ahead.

Russia’s strategy is one of cumulative attrition: continuous pressure through relentless missile/drone attacks very often aimed at civilian populations, sustained troop replacements enabled by ongoing recruitment, and increased production of precision munitions.

For missiles, there are no easy fixes. Russia is producing a lot more long-range precision missiles than the West is producing interceptors.

High-precision missile usage has surged to unprecedented levels, while drone deployments in early 2025 reached record highs. Ukraine needs cheaper solutions, especially for the Shahed-type threat.

Ukraine is also facing increased missile and drone strikes, including cruise and ballistic missiles and Shahed-type drones, aimed at overwhelming air defences. The reported shortage of PAC-3 interceptors further exacerbates the challenge.

Paradoxically, these territorial gains coincide with a reported overall reduction in Russian ground offensive operations across the front, including near Pokrovsk and Toretsk. This raises the question: Why is Russian forward momentum accelerating amid diminished ground attack activity?

From a terrain perspective, movement from Novooolenivka toward Stepaniva affords the Russians dominant ground, enabling fire control over approaches to Konstantynivka and interdiction of Ukrainian reinforcement routes from Druzkivka.

The rapid pace of the eastern push risks outflanking Ukrainian defensive lines and denies time for construction of new fortifications. Should Russian forces secure a breakthrough near Rusyn Yar, it would constitute a critical tactical gain, severely degrading Ukrainian defensive depth.

- The eastern axis from Chasiv Yar has seen limited gains over months;

- The southern axis via Toretsk is currently contested;

- The eastern flank, which has gained operational momentum and now threatens Ukrainian rear areas, complicating sustainment and force disposition.

Russian forces are advancing along three primary axes toward Konstantynivka:

Although this line has long ceased to serve as a reliable GLOC, the tempo and vectors of Russian advances northward remain concerning. (Orange colour is fortifications - made by Twitter user @Playfra0)

Here’s a brief update on the situation in Ukraine, focusing on Donbas and the air picture.

Over the past week, Russian elements from the 57th and 33rd Motor Rifle Regiments penetrated Ukrainian defensive positions along the TO504 road linking Pokrovsk and Konstantynivka.

Here is the link rochan-consulting.com/wp-content/u...

We also provide a forward-looking strategic risk assessment, escalation scenarios, and emerging trends across the regional defence-industrial landscape.
We welcome your thoughts as we continually refine RedHorizon into a sharper, mission-focused intelligence product.

- The Baltic states racing toward a post-ceasefire security reality—AI integration, missile development, and 5% defence budgets;
- Poland’s Borsuk IFV contract and nuclear deterrence talks with France.

- Ukraine’s formation of 10 operational Army Corps and the rollout of 15,000 autonomous vehicles;
- Russia’s drone saturation campaign and the latest conscription data;
- Belarus’ continued mobilisation exercises;

Thank you to everyone who shared comments on Issue 1 of #RedHorizon. Encouraged by the positive feedback, we're pleased to present Test Issue #2

Inside, you'll find analysis on:
- Ukraine’s formation of 10 operational Army Corps and the rollout of 15,000 autonomous vehicles;

🚨 Tomorrow, we will publish the next Red Horizon Weekly Brief. Selected topics covered last week include:

▪️ Ukraine’s Army Corps transformation
▪️ Russia’s mass drone strikes & stagnant economy
▪️ Estonia’s 5% GDP defence pledge
▪️ Polish-French pact in the making
#Ukraine #Russia #Baltics #NATO

OSINTukraine - OSINT Tools for Ukraine OSINT tools to archive, document and debunk the Russian War against Ukraine This project is a Telegram Archive, a News aggregator & publishing engine designed to support Ukraine and keep Ukraine information in the News cycle.

Transparency is key. OSINTukraine operates on €329/month for servers, storage, aggregation funded by supporters. Learn how we operate:

Announcing the Test Launch of Red Horizon — Our New Weekly Brief on Eastern Europe Dear Friends, Colleagues, and Subscribers,

rochanconsulting.substack.com/p/announcing...

We’re still finalizing the product’s scope and presentation and aim to wrap up the design phase by the end of April.

📩 In the meantime, we’ll be sharing weekly updates here. The first issue is available in the next tweet.

Thanks for your support!
Konrad

🧭 The goal is to provide early warning, situational awareness, and actionable insight for:

- Government agencies and embassies;
- Armed forces and defense ministries;
- Multilateral organizations;
- Think tanks, analysts, and journalists;
- Defense industry and risk advisory firms;

- It provides scenario assessments and risk outlooks
highlighting where escalation is most likely and what to watch.
- It integrates military trends with political, economic, and industrial indicators, helping users connect battlefield dynamics with a broader strategic context.

🔍 What makes Red Horizon unique?

- It focuses on operational and strategic developments rather than daily tactical updates.
- It draws on multilingual OSINT, structured forecasting, and defense policy analysis.

- What is the current trajectory of the war in Ukraine?
- How are the Russian Armed Forces being reconstituted?
- What threats—conventional, unconventional—do they pose to the region?
- How are Eastern European states preparing for a potential military confrontation?
- What role does Belarus play?

We’re excited to announce the test launch of our new product: Red Horizon.
This publication, created by @jominiw.bsky.social, myself and two of our colleagues (Konrad and Viacheslav), assesses the political-military situation in Eastern Europe, focusing on key questions such as:

OSINTukraine - OSINT Tools for Ukraine OSINT tools to archive, document and debunk the Russian War against Ukraine This project is a Telegram Archive, a News aggregator & publishing engine designed to support Ukraine and keep Ukraine information in the News cycle.

Transparency is key. OSINTukraine operates on €329/month for servers, storage, aggregation funded by supporters. Learn how we operate:

An Inflection Point: The Military Situation in Ukraine This week on Chain Reaction

NEW Podcast - An Inflection Point: The Military Situation in Ukraine #ChainReaction
@bobham.bsky.social @konradmuzyka.bsky.social

Pokrovsk Coke Plant - Economic Impact and Tactical Considerations The recent halt of operations at the Pokrovsk coking coal mine in Donetsk Oblast marks a critical juncture for Ukraine’s metallurgical industry and economy.

Pokrovsk Coke Plant - Economic Impact and Tactical Considerations rochanconsulting.substack.com/p/pokrovsk-c...