Ryan Evans

Do we know which Trump admin officials are going to the Munich Security Conference?

You're so stupid

Not even the president's political allies understand his fixation on Greenland. Whatever Trump sees there is invisible to the rest of mankind. Madness travels alone.

That may finally be happening. If we start seeing elite defections, especially from within the security forces, that will be the most important signal.

This is the first time I’ve thought the Iranian regime might actually crumble. I’ve long believed it should fall not through externally imposed regime change, but at home, under the weight of its own contradictions and its own awfulness.

The blackshirt violence that really mattered had already happened in the provinces. Well before Rome, fascist squads were attacking unions, socialists, and local officials at scale with tacit and open support of police, landowners, and industrialists. Rome was the last stop, not the first blow.

What mattered was that Italy's king refused to order the army to suppress it & Italy's elites believed they could co-opt Mussolini and his movement to restore order. Power changed hands through elite capitulation, not paramilitary force.

I think the comparison is strained and I'm not sure how much it tells us about the present either way. Focusing just on the Italian case, the blackshirts' numbers had little to do with the March on Rome succeeding. The march itself was largely symbolic and militarily incoherent.

And Trump was even willing to do the deal EVEN AFTER the big blow up, but Waltz talked him out of it. So everyone who jumped up and down on me for pointing this out at the time (especially on this website) can now observe how poorly their certainty aged. (2/2)

BTW one thing this article convincingly proves is that the Feb Oval meeting with Zelensky wasn't an ambush. As reported, the WH was hoping for a productive meeting and Zelenksy ignored pre-meeting advice from high level people close to the administration to avoid doing exactly what he did. (1/2)

Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy? A number of thoughtful observers argued President Donald Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. I was never convinced. On our podcast and in

Why did so many people think Trump wouldn't do a regime change op? My thoughts in article form here

warontherocks.com/2026/01/trum...

It could be, as I've said for months now, airstrikes and a snatch-and-grab (probably by JSOC). That doesn't mean it won't draw in a larger US military campaign in the future, but the issue for predicting whether regime change would happen or not is how Trump is thinking about it.

Fifth, sometimes people have had overly narrow mental models of what a regime change op in this and other cases could look like. It doesn't have to look like Iraq or Panama or Marines storming the beach.

Fourth, people put too much stock in Trump's statements and behavior from his first term that showed risk aversion to military commitment

There is no real hawkishness on Russia or China so this and Iran have been their only options.

Third, they underestimate coalition conflict inside the administration and how it scrambles the output. I think Venezuela has been an interesting case of this. My hypothesis here is that Venezuela has been an outlet of sorts for the hawks, especially Rubio but also others.

Second, people treat his public statements as either a bluff or a commitment when they can be both!

Trump might be surrounded by people with doctrines but I've always maintained he does not have one.

First, people assume he has a doctrine that behaves like past doctrines. I still see friends I respect saying he is pursuing a "defensive realist" grand strategy or a "Jacksonian" one or that he is an "isolationist."

The more interesting issue is not whether I was right or wrong (I've gotten him wrong on some other big things), but why seasoned and credible national security minds keep misreading Trump.

I think there are at least five reasons:

A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:

A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.

I never thought I'd become an e-reader fan. It feels almost sacrilegious, but I've become quite attached to my Kobo reader. It doesn't require me to be locked into an ecosystem like Amazon, the UI is simple and uncluttered, and the notes function works well.

The Separation: Inside the Unraveling U.S.-Ukraine Partnership As President Trump sought a peace deal and Vladimir V. Putin sought victory, factions in the White House and Pentagon bled the Ukrainian war effort.

Reading this deeply reported article by Adam Entous on the US approach to Ukraine and Russia was painful for me as an American. I will provide some of my thoughts later on here. This is probably the most important piece of journalism in 2025 on foreign policy.

4. Russian intent: This isn't the behavior of a state looking for a way out of war (confirming what we already knew). It is more evidence that Russia remains uninterested in any settlement near the terms currently being discussed.

3. Target audience: This fits with past attempts to manipulate Trump (who for whatever reason thinks Putin respects him). By painting Ukraine as unhinged aggressor during a peace window, Putin is trying to drive another wedge between Trump and Ukraine, to create pressure on Ukraine through Trump.

2. Inconsistencies: Russia's Ministry of Defense contradicted Lavrov, who said the number of alleged drones targeting the home was much higher.

1. Timing too convenient: The claim emerged right after talks between Trump & Zelensky appeared to go fairly well. Russia has a long history of deception to derail diplomatic momentum.

Occam's Razor points toward a clear conclusion: Putin's claim of an attempted Ukrainian drone attack on one of his homes is a fabrication. Why do I come to this conclusion

Perhaps worth revisiting as Trump and Zelensky convene today

What are your favorite short stories or novellas about war? (Please don't name your own)