Sina Toossi

YouTube video by Nonzero How Trump could strike a deal with Iran | NonZero World feat. Sina Toossi

Very valuable @nonzeronews.bsky.social podcast conversation about this weekend's US-Iran talks between @sinatoossi.bsky.social and @connorechols.bsky.social. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwYz...

I spoke to The Hill about the Trump-Iran talks set to begin. This could be a real opening — if both sides recognize that serious diplomacy, not threats or ultimatums, is the only viable path to avoid conflict.

Trump must continue to move toward Iran talks, even as Netanyahu tries to derail it Donald Trump’s surprising announcement that talks are starting with Iran gives the White House a pivotal choice: follow pro-Israel hawks calling for a military confrontation with Iran, or chart a dipl...

Trump blindsided Netanyahu by announcing high-level talks with Iran. It’s a rare opening for diplomacy—and the war camp is scrambling to shut it down.

I've written in Mondoweiss on why the US must not waste this chance:

15/ Video of Trump's further remarks on Iran today: We have a very big meeting with them on Saturday. We’re dealing with them directly, not through surrogates. Maybe a deal will be made. It’ll be really great for Iran. We are meeting on Saturday at almost the highest level.

14/ Something is clearly unfolding behind the scenes.

The key now is how Iran responds—though it’s unlikely they’ll confirm direct talks.

Whether this is a genuine diplomatic opening or just more brinkmanship will become clearer in the days ahead.

13/ But if Trump's goal is to verify that Iran's nuclear program remains peaceful, as some reports suggest, then a deal is still possible, and aligns with what Iranian officials have said they’re open to.

12/ The real test is what Trump is actually demanding.

If it's the maximalist "Libya model" that neoconservatives around him want—full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program—then talks are doomed, and heightened conflict is inevitable.

11/The shift in Trump's tone could be because he is preparing a high-stakes visit to Saudi Arabia, where he hopes to revive regional deals.

To do that, he'd benefit from calm in Gaza, a ceasefire in Yemen, and reduced tensions with Iran.

10/ Netanyahu, on the other hand, looked less than thrilled.

He opened with flattery for Trump, even praising his trade war.

But in return, Trump spoke of negotiating with Tehran, ending the Gaza war & his friendship with Erdogan. Hardly music to Netanyahu’s ears.

9/ Yet something was different in Trump’s tone today.

Amid weeks of threats & military buildup in the Middle East, he wasn't bombastic on Iran today.

He did warn that if talks fail, Iran will be in "great danger" but the emphasis was clearly on diplomacy.

8/ But Trump isn’t looking for quiet diplomacy.

He wants the world to see him closing the deal. He wants headlines, handshakes, and photo ops.

He wants to show that his "toughness" forced Iran to blink.

7/ For Iran’s leadership, especially its aging Supreme Leader, being seen as compromising with Trump could be a political nightmare if not done "right".

He can't afford to look weak to his base, especially after Trump tore up the previous deal & killed Soleimani.

6/ That same dynamic could be t play now but the political environment even more hostile that 2015.

In both countries, hardliners have spent decades fueling mistrust.

Many of them fear diplomacy not because it fails, but because it might succeed.

5/ Notably, back in 2012 and 2013, secret direct US-Iran talks in Oman quietly set the stage for the nuclear deal.

Those meetings succeeded because they were quiet, serious, and rooted in clarity: Iran wanted sanctions relief. The US wanted to prevent an Iranian bomb.

4/ So is Trump jumping the gun & prematurely revealing quiet diplomacy that’s still in its early stages?

Or is he deliberately blurring the line between indirect messaging and actual negotiations to claim momentum and create pressure?

3/ And yet, Iran recently responded to a letter from Trump proposing negotiations.

Their reply? They’re open to indirect talks via Oman.

If those build goodwill, then direct talks could follow according to Iranian sources.

2/ Trump’s announcement comes despite Iran’s Supreme Leader recently ruling out direct negotiations with the US under Trump, who not only pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal but also ordered the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in his first term.

🧵In a striking moment at the White House today, Trump told reporters that direct talks with Iran have begun—and will continue this Saturday.

The implications could be huge.

Here's why this matters and what could really be happening behind the scenes.

>>>

“Forgive me, mother. I chose a path that was helping people.”

He was a medic. Shot in the head by Israeli forces while saving lives. Buried in a mass grave.

Israel tried to cover it up. But video found on his body proves the truth.

Another atrocity in a genocidal war.

5/ Of course, Israel’s goal is to drag the US into a big war with Iran.

But with Trump, I would argue that the leash may be shorter that many believe.

4/ The current military buildup is party about increasing leverage before negotiations.

But more than that, it plays into Trump’s love for theatrics and looking “tough,” especially when he's chasing a deal.

With Iran, a longtime adversary, this dynamic will be even stronger.

3/ Moreover, no regional country outside of Israel wants this war or will support it.

The US has no nearby bases to launch from.

It would be forced to rely on distant platforms like Diego Garcia & aircraft carriers, severely limiting its options & increasing the risks.

2/ You also can’t verify the damage to Iran's nuclear program without boots on the ground.

It's spread out across the country & composed of thousands of people.

This would take an Iraq-level occupation, which is impossibility for the US.

🧵There’s no military solution to Iran’s nuclear program. Strikes might set it back a year—at best—but carry a high risk of pushing Iran to weaponize.

Retaliation would also likely be fierce: Iran’s missiles and drones can overwhelm US & Israeli defenses.

>>>

Trump has reportedly fired several NSC staffers for being too hawkish.

Could Waltz be next? His call for a Libya-style dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program isn’t a path to a deal, it's a formula for making war inevitable.

Trump seriously considering Iran's offer of indirect nuclear talks But he's also flooding military assets to the region for plan b.

The US military buildup—2 carriers, B-2s to Diego Garcia—may signal strength, but it hasn’t even neutralized Houthi strikes.

An attack on Iran would trigger wider conflict while likely failing to destroy Iran’s retaliatory capabilities.

How credible is this threat, really?

Eid Mubarak to all who celebrate!

This joyous and festive arrives under a heavy shadow once again, as Palestinians endure unimaginable suffering at the hands of a brutal war machine.

Let’s be clear: if you’re pushing for maximalist demands under the guise of wanting a deal, you’re not working for peace. You’re laying the groundwork for war.

This is the trap that many hawks inside & outside the admin are laying for Trump.