Talmon Joseph Smith

As an Odd Lots-stan I loved this article about @weisenthal.bsky.social @tracyalloway.bsky.social .

Well deserved praise.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

“.. The message .. was unmistakable: Government officials who deal in data now fear they have to toe the line or risk losing their jobs ..”

@peterbakernyt.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/u...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics must be fought because its very ideology is based on unrepentant Revisionism!

The Vital Importance of Good Economic Statistics (Re-broadcast) | Chats A discussion with Erica Groshen on the role of the BLS, the importance of good data for decision-making, and concerns about political interference degrading the integrity of government statistics.

Then former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social interviewed @econofact.bsky.social.
econofact.org/podcast/the-...

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

"the shortcomings of economics are not original error but uncorrected obsolescence. the obsolescence has occurred because what is convenient has become sacrosanct. anyone who attacks such ideas must seem to be a trifle self confident or even aggressive"

jonathan capehart, subbing for an msnbc host, just used the last minutes of the show to explain his departure from the washington post, specifically citing management's insistence on an optimistic vision of america while a corrupt president flouts the law and deploys troops to march american streets

i still have not seen a credible takedown of japan by VSP which considering its import debt and age situation seems like quite the feather in the cap for But Japan fiat currency lover macro people

The weighted-average interest rate on all mortgage debt outstanding increased from 4.05% to 4.11% in Q2, highest level since Q4 2012:

The New York Times office was vandalized last night with red paint and spray paint saying "NYT Lies, Gaza dies."

Treasury Secretary Bessent on 'Trump Accounts':

"It is a backdoor for privatizing Social Security....That's a game changer."

that's why Econ 101 students still hear stories about an idealized "auctioneer" that make no sense in context of the disaggregated production and distribution of goods and services that students actually experience; it's just how they did financial markets in France the first time someone used math

43

At least in California a lot of it comes down to the simple fact that we don't adequately fund school transportation. www.kqed.org/news/1198071...

The Fed has a Reaction Function.
Markets have an Overreaction Function.
(Mark may actually have said this first years ago, so I could be stealing this even as I QT him).

Trump Administration Plans to Force Millions More Seniors and People With Disabilities to Travel to Social Security’s Overburdened Field Offices | Center on Budget and Policy Priorities The Social Security Administration (SSA) is overwhelming its local offices by forcing millions more people to seek in-person service while cutting thousands of staff who provide that help. These...

Starting in less than 3 weeks, the Trump Admin plans to force millions more seniors, people with disabilities & bereaved families to travel to local Social Security offices to receive service--even as they cut thousands of the frontline staff who provide that help. www.cbpp.org/blog/trump-a...

Atlanta Fed Q2 GDP now final estimate jumps to 2.9% on the back of a narrower trade deficit and higher inventories. Tomorrow's key number will be real final sales to domestic purchasers.

wow impressive uptick.
may be people running to the smell of tax free credit card tips.

the sahm rule worked. we just listened to it via monetary policy rather than fiscal.

is this data seasonally adjusted

They’re making JPOW fancams on TikTok again

2/ As stated earlier, hiring was on the soft side. A hiring rate of 3.3% is comparable to early 2012 levels, when the unemployment rate was a little over 8%. But there's a pretty good chance it's just noise around a stable, weak hiring trend.

the cuts last summer worked. weirdly people say: nothing happened, they didnt work.

like no? the 10yr stayed stable because the front end cut was priced in? and then the economy cooling slowed! ta da lol

Another downtick in the CB's labor market gauge

Walmart, MLS ink partnership to capitalize on growing U.S. soccer fandom Walmart and Major League Soccer have entered into a multiyear partnership as both look to capitalize on the 2026 World Cup and MLS' young, diverse fanbase.

WMT x MLS.

"dedicated programming around televised MLS matches on Saturdays, the launch of a creator network and a curated soccer shopping experience, among other ties"

"Walmart will invest in MLS and become an official sponsor and partner of the league." <-- "invest"? 👀

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Ann. % Change, Defl. w/ National CPI, Since Post-GFC High Dallas 2.1 Charlotte 1.9 Denver 1.9 Seattle 1.8 Boston 1.0 Portland 0.9 Atlanta 0.9 San Diego 0.4 Cleveland 0.1 San Francisco 0.1 Los Angeles 0.0 Miami 0.0 Tampa -0.1 Detroit -0.2 New York City -0.2 Phoenix -0.5 Minneapolis -0.7 Washington DC -1.0 Chicago -1.0 Las Vegas -1.1

Pretty wild that house prices in Dallas, Charlotte, Denver, and Seattle have all appreciated ~2% per year in *real* terms since the pre-GFC *peak* in home prices.

OH **DOCTORS & AID WORKERS** ARE STARVING SO NOW STARVATION MATTERS???

yea seems like the mid level white collar cession + rents have rly killed off dynamism?

making 55k there in your late 20s sounds miserable

Morton Mintz, Post reporter with a muckraker spirit, dies at 103 A pioneer in consumer affairs journalism, he helped expose the deformity-causing hazards posed by thalidomide, a once-popular drug for morning sickness.

4 years ago I did a feature on why oversight hearings suck & I got to talk to Morton Mintz for it. He was 99, still sharp.
Mintz was so critical to business reporting that Congressional staffers would schedule hearings *around* his availability.
RIP to a legend
www.washingtonpost.com/obituaries/2...