Talmon Joseph Smith

The stock market bottoms 9 months before earnings in bear markets (on average)

But stocks and earnings top around the same time at the bull market peaks

So the market is forward looking at bottoms not so much at tops

No one's perfect

awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/10/can-...

🇦🇷

Close to cycle lows for private hires:

3/ Tech fascism in a nutshell: “Computers are so much more rule-based, controllable, fixable, and comprehensible than any human will ever be. As many political schools of thought do, these technolibertarians make a philosophy out of a personality defect.“ She wrote this in 2000!

the juice is spilled, the mods have been alerted,

The richest man on earth owns X.

The second richest man on earth is about to be a major owner of TikTok.

The third richest man owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.

The fourth richest man owns The Washington Post.

See the problem here?

lmao

Pretty much

I Thought I Knew Silicon Valley. I Was Wrong Tech got what it wanted by electing Trump. A year later, it looks more like a suicide pact.

"Tech got what it wanted by electing Trump. A year later, it looks more like a suicide pact."
www.wired.com/story/silico...

YouTube video by Takes™ by Jamelle Bouie New NYT Column — Republicans Don't Want to Live in Lincoln's America

did a read-aloud of my latest column, set to the backdrop of a drive through central virginia youtu.be/pq8TUlk4BxQ

Seattle, Tech Boomtown, Grapples With a Future of Fewer Tech Jobs Amazon and Microsoft remade the Seattle area. Now its economy is feeling the pain of the industry’s pullback.

“People who listed Microsoft and other tech companies on their résumés were applying to become baristas.” www.wsj.com/tech/seattle...

Statement from a Times spokesperson: "We welcome the judge’s quick ruling, which recognized that the complaint was a political document rather than a serious legal filing."

Nobody Wants To Work Anymore

They're Taking Our Jobs!

or Fed vs Trump.

“.. What’s really striking this week is he didn’t even need to launch a formal investigation into ABC — he simply made some loose threats on a podcast, and within hours, Kimmel is yanked. .. that speaks to the influence he’s managed to build up.”

@politico.com
www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Russell 2000 posts first record close since November 2021

last sentence of the first paragraph also sort of exonerates ARPA in a comparative sense - early days. we are at the equivalent of sept 2021 in any side by side comparison.

I used to think people were exaggerating when they said the USA was becoming a facist state. I think I was being naive.

🫡🫡🫡 on it

love your pod dude!

Chart showing that consumers in the top 10% of income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending in the second quarter, the highest level since 1989.

This is indeed everything. Also important to note where this spending is coming from. Over 75% of capital gains income goes to households in the top 10% of total income, while nearly everybody else is almost totally dependent on wages.
@talsmith.bsky.social

From burner phones to decks of cards: NYC teens are adjusting to the smartphone ban A week into the ban on internet-enabled devices, students say they are making it work.

“A group of boys brought in a transistor radio to listen to music. They didn’t realize they had to lift the antenna, so I lifted it for them. The music wasn’t that loud and it was quite sweet.” gothamist.com/news/from-bu...

“.. It will squeeze consumers, who have faced years of cumulative price hikes. This time, however, Americans won't get the boost from a roaring jobs market or strong wage growth.”

@axios.com
www.axios.com/newsletters/...

Today's FAFO:
*HYUNDAI DELAYS GEORGIA BATTERY PLANT CONSTRUCTION AFTER RAID

Someday we’re going to invent batteries that can store energy and it’s going to be awesome. 🤡

Playbook: Deny, deny, deny

POLITICO: ".. You don’t need Playbook to pick through the possible meanings of stomach-churning lines like 'We have certain things in common, Jeffrey' … 'May every day be another wonderful secret.' .. You can draw your own conclusions .. you probably already did."

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

🫡

I’m simultaneously over people who think everything needs to be a big swing (reimaginings, radical change) and people who think only small swings are realistic but whose theory of change relies on big-swing levels of enthusiasm/mobilization, or who don’t acknowledge any opposition to their ideas.

Trump Is Accusing Foes With Multiple Mortgages of Fraud. Records Show 3 of His Cabinet Members Have Them. The White House has targeted opponents, including a Fed governor, for having more than one primary residence on their loan papers. ProPublica found that, in one case, a Trump cabinet secretary got two...

It is impossible to be too cynical about Washington these days.
www.propublica.org/article/trum...