Richard Rubin

Who Gets ‘No Tax on Overtime’? It’s Messy. Employers and workers start grappling with limited scope of new tax deduction

New from me:

The "no tax on overtime" deduction is big, popular -- and a little messy.

Employers and workers are starting to grapple with the rules for who qualifies and who doesn't.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Trump Tax Megalaw Upends Charitable Giving Nonprofits, already under strain, face “mixed bag” from the law’s changes to giving incentives.

New from us today: The tax law made five separate changes that will affect incentives for charitable giving.

How will that all shake out?

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

U.S. Exporters Get Welcome Surprise in Trump Tax Law Restructured deduction is driving down tax rates for capital-intensive manufacturers of aircraft and other products.

New from me:

US exporters -- particularly those with factories and research expenses -- scored a big win in the tax law.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Live Q&A: Trump, Taxes and Midterms—Ask Your Questions About the WSJ Poll Join a real-time, written chat with WSJ reporters on Monday, July 28, from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET. WSJ subscribers can submit their questions at any time in the comments space below.

We're doing a live Q-and-A today on the recent WSJ poll, including Americans' dim views of the new tax-and-spending law.

Lob in your questions now:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

IG update: As of May, IRS workforce was down 25% from this year's 103,000 starting point.

Pretty even spread over job types, including a 26% decline in revenue agents (auditors).

Here are all the details:

www.tigta.gov/sites/defaul...

CBO current policy (CP) score is useful for the pattern. You see expanded tax cuts happen first (deficits up against CP by $597B in 26-29). Those expire and spending cuts come ($936B deficit reduction against CP in 30-34).

Unless Congress extends "no tax on" & cancels spending cuts.

but for a lot of these, it's a state choice about whether to conform. Arizona starts with federal AGI so the legislature can decide whether to allow state-level tips/overtime deductions.

weird that SALT would have that effect given that you can't deduct state taxes from state taxes?

GOP Reshapes Opportunity Zones to Target Trump Country New tax-and-spending law expands benefits for investments in sparsely populated regions.

New from us: The tax law retools Opportunity Zones, trying to push more money into rural areas largely left behind by a program for left-behind areas.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

So post-enactment, the current policy baseline is no longer current policy.

Are we calling it:
--Baseline formerly known as current policy
--The then-current policy baseline
--Prior policy baseline

None of those are particularly fun and/or clear.

GOP Declares Tax-Cut Extensions ‘Free’ to Obscure Megabill’s Cost Senate Republicans are deploying an unprecedented maneuver to continue 2017 tax cuts as budget experts and Democrats cry foul.

First time I think I've gotten Zeus into a budget story.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

FWIW, Sen. Mullin said this week that he didn't view the PTET issue as tied to the SALT discussions with House members that he's been having.

The Tax Bill Would Deliver a Big Win for Private Schools—and Investors School-choice advocates see a ‘revolution within the tax code.’

The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republicans Clamp Down on SALT Workaround for Business Owners Accountants, dentists and business groups are making a last-ditch effort to get the GOP to back off in President Trump’s megabill.

All the noise about the SALT cap is around $10k, $30k, or $40k. But there are a ton of dollars in the much messier and more technical debate about cap workarounds for businesses.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The Path to Record Deficits A generation ago, the federal budget was briefly in surplus. Now, it appears headed for a record stretch of peacetime deficits. What happened?

New from us today: A visual look at how and why the US turned from budget surpluses to deficits over the past quarter-century.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Megabill Would Increase Deficits Even More After Including Economic Growth, CBO Says House version of tax and spending proposal would boost GDP, but interest rates would rise, too.

CBO says the House GOP megabill gets more expensive when economic effects are included. Our new story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Senate Trims SALT, Cuts More Medicaid in Proposed Changes to Trump Megabill Republicans must overcome intraparty divides to get legislation to Trump’s desk by July 4 target.

First WSJ take on the Senate tax/health text. More to come:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom A raging debate over policies’ effects on economic growth and deficits is at the core of this summer’s fiscal fight in Congress.

Thanks to @richardrubindc.bsky.social for featuring this work in his recent article on the debate around the macroeconomic impacts of the OBBBA: www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

Exclusive | Congress’s Budget Referee Confronts Swarm of GOP Critics In an interview, Phill Swagel defended the CBO’s forecasting record as Republicans blast the fiscal scorekeeping agency’s assessment of their tax-and-spending megabill.

New from me: An interview with CBO Director Phill Swagel, who's bearing the brunt of Republican attacks on the budget scorekeeping agency.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Senators’ Demands Push Megabill Price Tag Up Stances on Medicaid, clean energy and tax cuts complicate passage of President Trump’s agenda.

There's noise about trying to do more spending cuts in the Senate bill. But addressing many of the senators' concerns--Medicaid cuts, IRA phaseouts, tax-cut permanence--require more money to avoid even bigger deficit increases.

My latest on the $$ squeeze in the Senate:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Votebeat Votebeat is a nonprofit news organization committed to reporting the nuanced truth about elections and voting in the United States.

If you care about elections and voting - especially in AZ/TX/MI/WI/PA -- they're doing excellent work over at votebeat.org

Some spousal news...

Trump Pledged ‘No Tax on Social Security.’ The Tax Bill Says Otherwise. This deduction would likely benefit people who earn modest incomes. The lowest-earning seniors already pay no federal income taxes, so they wouldn’t benefit. The highest earners make too much to quali...

New from us this morning:

The version of "no tax on Social Security" in the House bill is not quite that. It's a real tax cut, for sure. That said, many people will stay pay taxes on benefits. And some who don't receive benefits will get the tax cut.

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

you mean him, not me? 😉

I have asked the WH and not gotten an answer. 68% is roughly (a little high but close) to the share of households that would see a tax increase if TCJA expires Dec. 31.

So that's a working theory.

Could also be some sample household, maybe income-tax only? Dunno.

Notable because this one has attracted some attention from nonprofits -- the version of the reconciliation bill posted by the Rules Committee no longer includes the section on designating "terrorist supporting organizations."

rules.house.gov/sites/evo-su...

Businesses Made a Big Tax-Cut Request. Republicans Said Yes—And Then Some Despite grumbling from tax experts, plan boosts a 20% deduction for closely held pass-through businesses to 23%

Business lobbyists and even some Ways and Means Republicans were surprised and delighted when the 20% pass-through deduction turned into a 23% pass-through deduction.

Latest from me:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Rich vs. Poor: Who Gets What in the GOP Tax Bill The Republican tax bill looks very different depending on your income—and your political lens.

New from me: Rs and Ds are using the same tax distribution tables — and highlighting very different points about who wins and loses in the GOP tax plan.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republican Tax Plan Boosts SALT Deduction, Ends Green-Energy Breaks The proposal ends some taxes on tipped income and overtime pay and extends Trump’s expiring 2017 tax cuts.

Version 1 on the big tax bill release. More to come. Ideas and thoughts welcome:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Tax Bill Seeks to Put Cash in Taxpayers’ Pockets in Early 2026 The proposed version of the legislation boosts the standard deduction and increases the child tax credit, which would also start early.

What's in the tax bill matters. The WHEN is just as important. The GOP plan puts a bunch of cash in pockets in early 2026 -- well before the midterms.

my story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

If anyone can make heads or tails of the proposed non-rate changes to Sec. 199A, I welcome your thoughts.