Richard Rubin

Would take only one or two large state tax disputes like that get to $160M for high-net-worth/business owner types?

Could those be refunds related to pre-2018 years? Like you paid state tax, challenged the state tax calculation and then in 2019 or 2022 you received the money?

How the IRS and ICE Tussled During Trump’s Deportation Push Newly disclosed documents provide new details on the back-and-forth over providing sensitive taxpayer information to immigration officials.

New from me: Documents show how sweeping a request ICE made for IRS tax records -- and how IRS pushed back until the resulting handover was much, much narrower.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

It's not quite like pop quiz level who-did-what polling, but @s-stantcheva.bsky.social does interesting survey research work in this area.

How to Squeeze the Most From the New SALT Cap Taxpayers can act now to make the most of an increase in state and local tax deductions when they file 2025 taxes in the spring.

The SALT cap is now $40,000, but it shrinks very quickly once income exceeds $500k. All-in marginal tax rates are over 50% in that range in some states.

We go through some key tax-planning ideas:

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much. The books have closed on the U.S. government’s fiscal 2025. Here’s what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t.

Tariffs brought in record revenue in fiscal year 2025 for the U.S. government. But how much did that change the overall picture? Five takeaways from @richardrubindc.bsky.social and me today on what has changed about the federal budget—and what hasn’t. www.wsj.com/economy/tari...

except this time it's the blue jays instead of the expos.

Some Democrats Want to Upsize Trump’s New Tax Cuts Bills try to tap into economic populism and expand breaks for tipped employees, overtime and seniors.

New from me today: Democratic-backed tax bills introduced since OBBBA enactment have called for expanding some of Trump's "no tax on" policies.

It's a nod to their popularity -- and an attempt to highlight the new law's limits.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

How the New Tax Law Can Drive Your Bill to $0 It’s easier for some middle-income Americans to eliminate their tax bills without arcane strategies.

If you fall into one of the new law's preferred groups, you can go quite a way up the income scale before you have to pay federal income tax.

We visualized a few examples:

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

That is a very House Guy use of "other office" instead of "higher office."

The Tax That Billionaires Actually Pay Nearly 40% of taxes at the very top come through the corporate income levy, study says.

New from me today: What tax do billionaires pay?

The corporate tax, which is a crucial component of the US revenue system at the very top of the income distribution, according to a new study.

www.wsj.com/personal-fin...

Who Gets ‘No Tax on Overtime’? It’s Messy. Employers and workers start grappling with limited scope of new tax deduction

New from me:

The "no tax on overtime" deduction is big, popular -- and a little messy.

Employers and workers are starting to grapple with the rules for who qualifies and who doesn't.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Trump Tax Megalaw Upends Charitable Giving Nonprofits, already under strain, face “mixed bag” from the law’s changes to giving incentives.

New from us today: The tax law made five separate changes that will affect incentives for charitable giving.

How will that all shake out?

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

U.S. Exporters Get Welcome Surprise in Trump Tax Law Restructured deduction is driving down tax rates for capital-intensive manufacturers of aircraft and other products.

New from me:

US exporters -- particularly those with factories and research expenses -- scored a big win in the tax law.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Live Q&A: Trump, Taxes and Midterms—Ask Your Questions About the WSJ Poll Join a real-time, written chat with WSJ reporters on Monday, July 28, from 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET. WSJ subscribers can submit their questions at any time in the comments space below.

We're doing a live Q-and-A today on the recent WSJ poll, including Americans' dim views of the new tax-and-spending law.

Lob in your questions now:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

IG update: As of May, IRS workforce was down 25% from this year's 103,000 starting point.

Pretty even spread over job types, including a 26% decline in revenue agents (auditors).

Here are all the details:

www.tigta.gov/sites/defaul...

CBO current policy (CP) score is useful for the pattern. You see expanded tax cuts happen first (deficits up against CP by $597B in 26-29). Those expire and spending cuts come ($936B deficit reduction against CP in 30-34).

Unless Congress extends "no tax on" & cancels spending cuts.

but for a lot of these, it's a state choice about whether to conform. Arizona starts with federal AGI so the legislature can decide whether to allow state-level tips/overtime deductions.

weird that SALT would have that effect given that you can't deduct state taxes from state taxes?

GOP Reshapes Opportunity Zones to Target Trump Country New tax-and-spending law expands benefits for investments in sparsely populated regions.

New from us: The tax law retools Opportunity Zones, trying to push more money into rural areas largely left behind by a program for left-behind areas.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

So post-enactment, the current policy baseline is no longer current policy.

Are we calling it:
--Baseline formerly known as current policy
--The then-current policy baseline
--Prior policy baseline

None of those are particularly fun and/or clear.

GOP Declares Tax-Cut Extensions ‘Free’ to Obscure Megabill’s Cost Senate Republicans are deploying an unprecedented maneuver to continue 2017 tax cuts as budget experts and Democrats cry foul.

First time I think I've gotten Zeus into a budget story.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

FWIW, Sen. Mullin said this week that he didn't view the PTET issue as tied to the SALT discussions with House members that he's been having.

The Tax Bill Would Deliver a Big Win for Private Schools—and Investors School-choice advocates see a ‘revolution within the tax code.’

The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republicans Clamp Down on SALT Workaround for Business Owners Accountants, dentists and business groups are making a last-ditch effort to get the GOP to back off in President Trump’s megabill.

All the noise about the SALT cap is around $10k, $30k, or $40k. But there are a ton of dollars in the much messier and more technical debate about cap workarounds for businesses.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

The Path to Record Deficits A generation ago, the federal budget was briefly in surplus. Now, it appears headed for a record stretch of peacetime deficits. What happened?

New from us today: A visual look at how and why the US turned from budget surpluses to deficits over the past quarter-century.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Megabill Would Increase Deficits Even More After Including Economic Growth, CBO Says House version of tax and spending proposal would boost GDP, but interest rates would rise, too.

CBO says the House GOP megabill gets more expensive when economic effects are included. Our new story:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Senate Trims SALT, Cuts More Medicaid in Proposed Changes to Trump Megabill Republicans must overcome intraparty divides to get legislation to Trump’s desk by July 4 target.

First WSJ take on the Senate tax/health text. More to come:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Republicans and Economists at Odds Over Whether Megabill Will Spur Growth Boom A raging debate over policies’ effects on economic growth and deficits is at the core of this summer’s fiscal fight in Congress.

Thanks to @richardrubindc.bsky.social for featuring this work in his recent article on the debate around the macroeconomic impacts of the OBBBA: www.wsj.com/economy/trum...

Exclusive | Congress’s Budget Referee Confronts Swarm of GOP Critics In an interview, Phill Swagel defended the CBO’s forecasting record as Republicans blast the fiscal scorekeeping agency’s assessment of their tax-and-spending megabill.

New from me: An interview with CBO Director Phill Swagel, who's bearing the brunt of Republican attacks on the budget scorekeeping agency.

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

GOP Senators’ Demands Push Megabill Price Tag Up Stances on Medicaid, clean energy and tax cuts complicate passage of President Trump’s agenda.

There's noise about trying to do more spending cuts in the Senate bill. But addressing many of the senators' concerns--Medicaid cuts, IRA phaseouts, tax-cut permanence--require more money to avoid even bigger deficit increases.

My latest on the $$ squeeze in the Senate:

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...