So: Starmer’s not scapegoating migrants - he’s trying to rebuild democratic legitimacy. By delivering visible control, he hopes to earn the mandate to tackle what he really believes matters for cohesion. (6/6)

Crucially, he doesn’t say immigration undermines cohesion. He says the gap between rhetoric and reality - a system out of control, promises betrayed - made people feel abandoned. Fixing that gap is his way of rebuilding the social contract. (5/)

I’m ~75% confident he thinks many voters do blame immigration - and that persuading them otherwise is politically near-impossible.

Support: Reform UK is polling well, and Labour avoids challenging the substance of anti-immigration narratives. Instead, it focuses on delivery and reassurance. (4/)

I’m ~80% confident that Starmer personally sees housing, inequality, and public services as the main drivers of social cohesion — not immigration levels.

Support: Fits general centre-left technocratic worldview.

This is the most important factor in my reasoning. (3/)

That’s my core claim: Starmer doesn’t think immigration controls fix social cohesion directly. He thinks past governments undermined cohesion by promising control and delivering chaos, and that restoring procedural fairness is the precondition for real change. (2/)

Why is Starmer talking tough on immigration?

My take: it's not because he believes migration causes social breakdown - but because he thinks political betrayal over immigration broke public trust. His strategy is to restore that trust, then pivot to policies that actually rebuild community. (1/)

Immigration in Australia under 2022-25 government (both immigration patterns + immigration politics) interesting + offer important clues about dynamics of immigration politics:
UK takeaways: overall numbers can matter - but visibility of boats matters much more. Control + perceived control matters

Image from the Financial Times, placing Keir Starmer next to Enoch Powell.

Starmer's language was deplorable.

It was grotesquely offensive, accusing people who have brought their gifts to this country of doing "incalculable" "damage"; & politically foolish, in endorsing Farage's claims of an establishment conspiracy.

But bad analogies with Powell miss the key problem. 🧵

Our latest report looks at five 'anti-supply measures' that are a major bottleneck on urban housebuilding and the 1.5m new home target - a quick thread below on what they are, why they're a problem, and how to fix them:

Oh but then this suggests that accommodation leads to more voters defecting to the radical right. But I haven't read it yet because I should probably go to sleep...

Oh, just found this, which suggests that in some contexts, accommodation can improve the political prospects of the mainstream left.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Is there empirical evidence that shows this is a counter-productive strategy for centre-left parties?

I found this paper on centre-right parties, which suggests it works for them (at least in the short term): cris.unibo.it/retrieve/157...

Bill Gates accuses Elon Musk of ‘killing’ children with USAID cuts

on.ft.com/4d4TguS

Legend

So yeah, if you’re reading this Stephen, this is why I might question this view. Despite trying to stay informed I get little more than vibes from most media outlets. Instead, I want concrete reporting on how the gov is doing re it’s objectives, and how it compares to other governments.

Oh, apparently I can’t quote tweet. It was Bush from the FT being confused about how people could possibly question the view “Labour are governing badly”.

For example, I think the Planning and Infrastructure Bill is a big part of reaching this goal, but if I go the FT’s website I can’t find anything substantial on this topic published more recently than March. Why’s this? I want to read about what happened during the April committee debates.

I want to go to the FT’s website and see everything that’s happening regarding ‘Build 1.5 million new homes in England by the end of this parliament’. I want this section to tell me what the key milestones are for this goal and whether the gov is on track, what’s blocking them, etc.

I find it really hard to judge the government because I haven’t found the reporting I’d like to see. I’d love it if the FT had a section that reported on the gov’s progress with each of its missions.

• Bouldering ≥2×/week (90 min) → 26x
• Zone 2 cardio ≥2×/week (30 min run / 60 min cycle) → 26x
• Stair climb/hike 1×/week → 12x
 – Pack: 5–7kg → 12–15kg by June
• Flexibility check in April
• 2 long hikes (5+ hrs) by June
 – Pack: 8–10kg → 12–15kg

Going on a mountaineering course this summer with the Dutch mountaineering association (yes, that’s real). Here’s my Q2 training plan - feedback welcome!

'Europe is not only home to our traditional allies; it is an enviable zone of democracy, wealth and prosperity with which it benefits us to have good relations, and from which we can sometimes learn'

Snyder on the new US imperialism

open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...

Quakers condemn police raid on Westminster Meeting House Police broke into a Quaker Meeting House last night (27 March) and arrested six young people holding a meeting over concerns for the climate and Gaza.

One lesson I've learned from history, is that few reputations survive being on the opposite side to the Quakers

www.quaker.org.uk/news-and-eve...

Albania was great – wild landscapes, warm people – but it really makes you appreciate how well-organised the Netherlands is. Saw 070 Shake at Paradiso last night and for a live music venue (not exactly known for logistics), it was so efficient – no queue at the bar, QR-code lockers, smooth as silk.

The latest ep of Het Parool’s podcast had a brief bit on cheap coffee in Amsterdam but it missed the two best spots I know of! Kaffee on Dapperplein in Oost does €1 espresso and, even more impressively, Het Stadspaleis in the centre does does the same (provided you stand at the bar)

8. Everyone I spoke to was excited about the prospect of joining the EU, and they all mentioned the goal of achieving this by 2030. I hope they succeed. I can't wait to see what EU membership does for living standards

7. Balkan hospitality never fails to amaze me. From hosts, to business owners, to just people on the street. People always go out of their way to help you. Here's one of the places we stayed at, House 1960 in the fishing village of Lin. Highly recommend.

6. Hoxha was obsessed with bunkers and had ~170k built around the country. Here's one overlooking lake Ohrid in the east of the country.

5. Hoxha was a real piece of work. I’ve lived in an ex-communist country, so I’m used to places shaped by long-term repression - but Albania is something else. The pyramid was originally built as a memorial to him. Glad it’s been repurposed.

4. Lots of interesting examples of contemporary architecture in Tirana, much of it done by Dutch firm MVRDV (famous for the Markthal in Rotterdam and infamous for the Marble Arch Mound in London). They also renovated the Pyramid of Tirana. Very fun. Even has a slide. I can confirm it is slideable.

3. They're obsessed with their national hero Skanderbeg, known for leading the resistance against Ottoman invadors. So much so, they're currently building a tower in the shape of his face.