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@andybeger.bsky.social

Data/political scientist. Pro-democracy, pro-NATO, pro-US.

200 Followers  |  327 Following  |  211 Posts  |  Joined: 19.09.2023  |  1.9314

Latest posts by andybeger.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Opinion | Silicon Valley Is Investing in the Wrong A.I.

Jevin West and I have long argued that if OpenAI survives, it will be as 1000 squirrels in an LLM-shaped trenchcoat. A thin language layer will farm tasks out to 1000 domain-specific modules, much as Google evolved from PageRank to 1000 different systems.

Here's Gary Marcus (h/t @mehr.nz)

17.10.2025 05:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 223    ๐Ÿ” 48    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 10

Federal civs swear the exact same oath of office as commissioned officers and I for one think the next dem admin needs to start holding them to it

16.10.2025 15:38 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 55    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Oh no

16.10.2025 15:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โ€œEuropeans who oppose migrationโ€ would get privileged access to move to the US.

I always have to chuckle at immigrants who oppose immigration, saying this as a (hopefully) self-aware repeat migrant.

Anyways, sounds like DEI for white racists.

16.10.2025 10:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

How tf can these agents sleep at night after taking a young kidsโ€™ parent away

09.10.2025 19:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Video thumbnail

Holy crap. Trump will make the FCC crucify Jimmy Kimmel for this.

08.10.2025 03:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2289    ๐Ÿ” 864    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 44    ๐Ÿ“Œ 122

โ€œI want to erode democracy when it prevents me from doing the (possibly quite dumb) things I want to doโ€ is not a disturbing position one needs to seriously engage with and debate.

27.09.2025 07:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I didn't know Charlie Kirk existed until the early 2020s, when I learned about him and Turning Point USA while researching U.S. protest activity for my old job. From what I saw over the next several years, I came to detest him, and to see him as an important figure in the ascending American right.

21.09.2025 12:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 80    ๐Ÿ” 12    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Overpaid former SF now contractor without qualifications incoming

20.09.2025 23:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

How are constitutional law folks feeling these days? (Genuine question)

20.09.2025 23:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

*19 September

19.09.2025 15:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Or before the civil rights era a 100 years later, considering a large minority was disenfranchised in the South until the

18.09.2025 23:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

E.g. the whole Iraq IED-heavy nature was dependent on a shallow but static occupation (somebody can emplace an IED without being caught and youโ€™ll drive by it), so outside of those conditions you donโ€™t really need to have the specific EW and MRAPs etc.

17.09.2025 08:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Has anybody written about the conditions under which the current drone-heavy quasi-stalemate is possible? E.g. if one side has air superiority and/or sufficient arty ammo, or better skill at maneuver, do you still see heavy drone use defensively, offensively?

17.09.2025 08:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Crafting Interpreters

Link to the book website: craftinginterpreters.com

12.09.2025 13:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A screenshot of the landing page for the online version of Crafting Interpreters by Robert Nystrom.

A screenshot of the landing page for the online version of Crafting Interpreters by Robert Nystrom.

If you want to learn more about how programming languages work under the hood, can't recommend Crafting Interpreters by Robert Nystrom enough. Absolutely stunning and well-done book, and available for free (by the author) online. I just finished the first part on a Java-based tree-walk interpreter.

12.09.2025 13:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Charlie Kirk v @charliekirk11
Hillary For Prison
11:04 PM โ€ข Dec 21, 2015

Charlie Kirk v @charliekirk11 Hillary For Prison 11:04 PM โ€ข Dec 21, 2015

Jason Campbell & @JasonSCampbell
Charlie Kirk: "If Alexander Hamilton, Thomas Jefferson, George
Washington, or John Adams saw drag queen story hour, they would mobilize the Minutemen"
CHARLIE KIRK
SHOW
0:54
291K views
10:51 AM โ€ข 8/10/21 โ€ข Twitter Web App
ๅฎŒ

Jason Campbell & @JasonSCampbell Charlie Kirk: "If Alexander Hamilton, Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, or John Adams saw drag queen story hour, they would mobilize the Minutemen" CHARLIE KIRK SHOW 0:54 291K views 10:51 AM โ€ข 8/10/21 โ€ข Twitter Web App ๅฎŒ

Charlie Kirk @ c@charliekirk11 โ€ข 16h
Residents of Springfield, OH are reporting that Haitians are eating their family pets, another gift of the Biden-Harris mass immigration replacement plan. Liberals will soon be lecturing Americans on why they need to be sensitive to Haitian culture and accept this as the new Show more
Springfield Ohio Cri...
BIDEN FLOODS OHIO TOWN WITH 20,000 HAITIAN MIGRANTS: TEN TO A BEDROOM
Warning to all about our beloved pets & those around us!!
My neighbor informed me that her daughters friend had lost her cat. She checked pages, kennels, asked around, etc. One day she came home from work, as soon as she stepped out of her car, looked towards a neighbors house, where Haitians live, & saw her cat hanging from a branch, like you'd do a deer for butchering, & they were carving it up to eat. I've been told they are doing this to dogs, they have been doing it at snyder park with the ducks & geese, as I was told that last bit by
on A. Moreno/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Pile
Rangers & police. Please keep a close
eve on these animala
@ 2ะบ
179.6K O 22K
ill 2.4M
่ด
Elon Musk & @elonmusk
Follow
Apparently, people's pet cats are being eaten

Charlie Kirk @ c@charliekirk11 โ€ข 16h Residents of Springfield, OH are reporting that Haitians are eating their family pets, another gift of the Biden-Harris mass immigration replacement plan. Liberals will soon be lecturing Americans on why they need to be sensitive to Haitian culture and accept this as the new Show more Springfield Ohio Cri... BIDEN FLOODS OHIO TOWN WITH 20,000 HAITIAN MIGRANTS: TEN TO A BEDROOM Warning to all about our beloved pets & those around us!! My neighbor informed me that her daughters friend had lost her cat. She checked pages, kennels, asked around, etc. One day she came home from work, as soon as she stepped out of her car, looked towards a neighbors house, where Haitians live, & saw her cat hanging from a branch, like you'd do a deer for butchering, & they were carving it up to eat. I've been told they are doing this to dogs, they have been doing it at snyder park with the ducks & geese, as I was told that last bit by on A. Moreno/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, Pile Rangers & police. Please keep a close eve on these animala @ 2ะบ 179.6K O 22K ill 2.4M ่ด Elon Musk & @elonmusk Follow Apparently, people's pet cats are being eaten

Here's Trump turnout chair, Charlie Kirk, condemning the women who "undermine their husbands" by voting for Harris:
"It's just so nauseating where this wife ... who comes in with her sweet husband who probably works his tail off to make sure that she can go and, you know, have a nice life, provides for the family. And then she lies to him, saying, 'Oh yeah I'm going to vote for Trump' and then she votes for Kamala Harris as her little secret in the voting booth."
GO -OTE NOW
The Megyn
Kelly Show
SiriusXM

Here's Trump turnout chair, Charlie Kirk, condemning the women who "undermine their husbands" by voting for Harris: "It's just so nauseating where this wife ... who comes in with her sweet husband who probably works his tail off to make sure that she can go and, you know, have a nice life, provides for the family. And then she lies to him, saying, 'Oh yeah I'm going to vote for Trump' and then she votes for Kamala Harris as her little secret in the voting booth." GO -OTE NOW The Megyn Kelly Show SiriusXM

Iโ€™m choosing to remember Charlie Kirkโ€™s contribution to American civic life in his own words.

11.09.2025 14:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1600    ๐Ÿ” 492    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 32    ๐Ÿ“Œ 12

Apropos of nothing, here's a thread of some Charlie Kirk highlights

11.09.2025 01:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3522    ๐Ÿ” 1525    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 106    ๐Ÿ“Œ 377

PS: the title is totally hype BS, sorry

10.09.2025 13:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Clearly much better as it reduces the number of wrong answers, but still...half of the not i-don't-know answer are wrong. And I'm very skeptical that this is _the major_ cause of hallucinations. Rather, still seems to me like that is baked into the architecture.

10.09.2025 13:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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I'm not a LLM expert, but that seems like a simple and compelling point to me.

What I'm less sure about is how much of hallucination is simply due to that. In the blog post they have some metrics, and 25% correct vs 25% wrong vs 50% "I don't know" seems like a stark tradeoff. (2/3)

10.09.2025 13:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Why language models hallucinate OpenAIโ€™s new research explains why language models hallucinate. The findings show how improved evaluations can enhance AI reliability, honesty, and safety.

OpenAI has a new paper out, "Why language models hallucinate". I've only read the blog post and browsed the paper, but:

The core is a simple point: benchmarks reward you for guessing the correct answer rather than saying "I don't know", so confidently BS'ing gets you higher scores. (1/3)

10.09.2025 13:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Here is a list I post from time to time. My answer to a reader who asked me: what could journalists do NOW to break with some of their more corrosive habits.

Defense of democracy seen as basic to the job.

Symmetrical accounts of asymmetrical realities seen as malpractice.

โ€œPolitics as strategic gameโ€ frame seen as low quality, downmarket, amateurishโ€” and overmatched.

Bad actors with a history of misinforming the public seen as unsuitable sources and unwelcome guests.

Internalizing of the โ€œliberal biasโ€ critique seen as self-crippling, a historic mistake in need of correction.

Here is a list I post from time to time. My answer to a reader who asked me: what could journalists do NOW to break with some of their more corrosive habits. Defense of democracy seen as basic to the job. Symmetrical accounts of asymmetrical realities seen as malpractice. โ€œPolitics as strategic gameโ€ frame seen as low quality, downmarket, amateurishโ€” and overmatched. Bad actors with a history of misinforming the public seen as unsuitable sources and unwelcome guests. Internalizing of the โ€œliberal biasโ€ critique seen as self-crippling, a historic mistake in need of correction.

Here's something I post from time to time. My answer to a reader who asked me: what could journalists do NOW to break with some of their more corrosive habits.

12.06.2025 15:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2935    ๐Ÿ” 1226    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 75    ๐Ÿ“Œ 85

Love that they are explicitly calling a pro-democracy movement.

08.09.2025 18:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
'No Kings' Unveils a Big New Trump Protest, and the Stakes Couldn't Be Higher Ezra Levin of Indivisible on how protest can stop Donald Trumpโ€™s authoritarianism.

The pro-democracy movement just announced its next big protest.

Read all about it:

08.09.2025 15:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 344    ๐Ÿ” 112    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 8
Preview
The โ€˜Fortress Russiaโ€™ economy has adapted well to pressure. But stagflation presents an opportunity for the West Now could be the time to ratchet up sanctions pressure on Putin and change Moscowโ€™s risk analysis of prolonging the war.

A balanced assessment of Russia's economy. "Full year real GDP growth forecasts are being revised down to less than 1% for 2025, but inflation expectations remain elevated...there is no end in sight for the current stagflationary macro situation." www.chathamhouse.org/2025/09/fort...

08.09.2025 08:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 144    ๐Ÿ” 34    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

White House announces that Stephen Miller has taken residence in a warren of underground tunnels he burrowed under the new Rose Garden patio.

07.09.2025 11:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 95    ๐Ÿ” 11    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Abstract: Under the banner of progress, products have been uncritically adopted or
even imposed on users โ€” in past centuries with tobacco and combustion engines, and in
the 21st with social media. For these collective blunders, we now regret our involvement or
apathy as scientists, and society struggles to put the genie back in the bottle. Currently, we
are similarly entangled with artificial intelligence (AI) technology. For example, software updates are rolled out seamlessly and non-consensually, Microsoft Office is bundled with chatbots, and we, our students, and our employers have had no say, as it is not
considered a valid position to reject AI technologies in our teaching and research. This
is why in June 2025, we co-authored an Open Letter calling on our employers to reverse
and rethink their stance on uncritically adopting AI technologies. In this position piece,
we expound on why universities must take their role seriously toa) counter the technology
industryโ€™s marketing, hype, and harm; and to b) safeguard higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, and scientific integrity. We include pointers to
relevant work to further inform our colleagues.

Abstract: Under the banner of progress, products have been uncritically adopted or even imposed on users โ€” in past centuries with tobacco and combustion engines, and in the 21st with social media. For these collective blunders, we now regret our involvement or apathy as scientists, and society struggles to put the genie back in the bottle. Currently, we are similarly entangled with artificial intelligence (AI) technology. For example, software updates are rolled out seamlessly and non-consensually, Microsoft Office is bundled with chatbots, and we, our students, and our employers have had no say, as it is not considered a valid position to reject AI technologies in our teaching and research. This is why in June 2025, we co-authored an Open Letter calling on our employers to reverse and rethink their stance on uncritically adopting AI technologies. In this position piece, we expound on why universities must take their role seriously toa) counter the technology industryโ€™s marketing, hype, and harm; and to b) safeguard higher education, critical thinking, expertise, academic freedom, and scientific integrity. We include pointers to relevant work to further inform our colleagues.

Figure 1. A cartoon set theoretic view on various terms (see Table 1) used when discussing the superset AI
(black outline, hatched background): LLMs are in orange; ANNs are in magenta; generative models are
in blue; and finally, chatbots are in green. Where these intersect, the colours reflect that, e.g. generative adversarial network (GAN) and Boltzmann machine (BM) models are in the purple subset because they are
both generative and ANNs. In the case of proprietary closed source models, e.g. OpenAIโ€™s ChatGPT and
Appleโ€™s Siri, we cannot verify their implementation and so academics can only make educated guesses (cf.
Dingemanse 2025). Undefined terms used above: BERT (Devlin et al. 2019); AlexNet (Krizhevsky et al.
2017); A.L.I.C.E. (Wallace 2009); ELIZA (Weizenbaum 1966); Jabberwacky (Twist 2003); linear discriminant analysis (LDA); quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA).

Figure 1. A cartoon set theoretic view on various terms (see Table 1) used when discussing the superset AI (black outline, hatched background): LLMs are in orange; ANNs are in magenta; generative models are in blue; and finally, chatbots are in green. Where these intersect, the colours reflect that, e.g. generative adversarial network (GAN) and Boltzmann machine (BM) models are in the purple subset because they are both generative and ANNs. In the case of proprietary closed source models, e.g. OpenAIโ€™s ChatGPT and Appleโ€™s Siri, we cannot verify their implementation and so academics can only make educated guesses (cf. Dingemanse 2025). Undefined terms used above: BERT (Devlin et al. 2019); AlexNet (Krizhevsky et al. 2017); A.L.I.C.E. (Wallace 2009); ELIZA (Weizenbaum 1966); Jabberwacky (Twist 2003); linear discriminant analysis (LDA); quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA).

Table 1. Below some of the typical terminological disarray is untangled. Importantly, none of these terms
are orthogonal nor do they exclusively pick out the types of products we may wish to critique or proscribe.

Table 1. Below some of the typical terminological disarray is untangled. Importantly, none of these terms are orthogonal nor do they exclusively pick out the types of products we may wish to critique or proscribe.

Protecting the Ecosystem of Human Knowledge: Five Principles

Protecting the Ecosystem of Human Knowledge: Five Principles

Finally! ๐Ÿคฉ Our position piece: Against the Uncritical Adoption of 'AI' Technologies in Academia:
doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

We unpick the tech industryโ€™s marketing, hype, & harm; and we argue for safeguarding higher education, critical
thinking, expertise, academic freedom, & scientific integrity.
1/n

06.09.2025 08:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3129    ๐Ÿ” 1590    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 98    ๐Ÿ“Œ 253
Post image

#ANewHope ๐Ÿ™

05.09.2025 18:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 19364    ๐Ÿ” 3173    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 807    ๐Ÿ“Œ 207

@andybeger is following 20 prominent accounts